POLITICAL NEWS & ELECTION UPDATES

Two more House seats drop off Democratic takeover list Pennsylvania CD8 and New York CD22 are now projected to stay with the GOP.

Thursday roundup – North Carolina in focus, Guinta’s primary win & Trump’s bounce North Carolina may be trouble for the GOP, but all is not gloomy for the red team.

Trump vs Clinton head-to-head matchup down to 2.6 points Clinton’s national lead has been reduced by half over the last two weeks.

	Monday roundup – Positive news for the red team September’s start has given Republicans plenty to be encouraged by.
	Race for White House is measurably tightening Hillary Clinton’s electoral vote lead has dwindled from 176 to just 50.
	Donald Trump moves ahead in Florida presidential projection The aggregate of 5 polls released in September give the Republican a scant 0.2-point lead.
	Republicans reclaim outright majority in Senate election projections One GOP and four Democrat takeovers mean no projected change in control of the chamber.
	Kelly Ayotte has moved back in front of Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire The GOP incumbent has made up a lot of ground thanks to two very good recent polls for her.

Another New York House seat (CD-22) scratched from DEM Gain column. CNN/ORC releases poll showing generic House Republican up by two.

	Election roundup: Clinton’s campaign troubles, GOPers best Trump in key states The latest election news updates offered (almost) daily by Election Projection.
	North Carolina and Ohio trade columns in latest electoral vote tally Since Ohio has more EVs than North Carolina, Clinton’s lead shrinks a bit more.

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	Election roundup: Unhappy voters, generic polls, races gone uncompetitive The latest election news updates offered daily by Election Projection.
	Hillary’s electoral vote lead shrinks a bit but remains massive Two days after jumping out to a 357-181 lead, Clinton loses lead in Georgia.
	New polling data brings Georgia back into Trump’s column However, the traditionally bright red state remains problematic for the Republican
	Today’s polling data harvest nets over 100 new polls The Washington Post/SurveyMonkey collaboration released two polls per state yesterday.
	Two new congressional preference polls result in 7 House rating changes Democrats are already favored to win competitive races, so no new takeovers result.

Welcome to Election Projection

Since late 2003, Election Projection has been in the business of projecting the upcoming elections. Here you’ll find data-driven calculations that gauge the status of all Senate, House and gubernatorial elections on tap for 2016 as well as electoral vote projections for all 50 states (and D.C.) in the 2016 presidential contest. Once the nominees are known, Election Projection employs a proprietary formula to arrive at a projection for all the races covered here. This election cycle, I’m currently tracking over 110 races, and that number is sure to climb as more House races are deemed competitive between now and Election Day.

Rather than a prediction of the outcome, the projections you find here serve to tell who would be expected to win if the elections were held today. As the election nears, my numbers become more predictive in nature.  And history bears out the accuracy of my methodology. Over the last six election cycles, Election Projection has correctly named the winner in 96.4% of the 2,629 races called. In addition, unlike many prognosticators, I refuse to cop out on any race. You’ll never see a “toss-up” rating here.

Since public opinion polls are an integral part of the projections, EP also publishes a vast assortment of polls. Updated multiple times each day except Sunday, Election Projection’s latest polls are a valuable resource as well for those seeking every last bit of info on the important races of the cycle.  I hope you enjoy perusing the polls for the races you are most interested in.

Thank you for stopping by. Since you’re here, you probably share my interest in politics – and especially election outcomes.  Take a look around. I hope find Election Projection to be just the kind of online repository you’re looking for.  It is, after all, “the original election projection website.”

Whether you are a conservative Republican or a liberal Democrat, you can count on the objectivity of EP’s projections. I am staunchly conservative in ideology, but I am just as staunchly objective when it comes to calculating election winners.  Through the years, whether a red wave was on the horizon or a blue year was in the offing, EP has earned a reputation of telling it like it is.  That’s my commitment to all my readers.  I will never fudge the numbers here – even when I don’t like the outcome they project.