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2004 Edition        
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Election Projection 2004
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Last updated: 11/02/04
   Final Projected Tally:
   Electoral Votes:   Bush 289, Kerry 249
   Popular Vote:   Bush 49.4%, Kerry 48.7%
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 Election 2004 Projections   -     Read the formula here.
Election Scorecard     
Twenty-One Reasons Why Bush Will Win WON!     
Final Projection - 11/02/04

EV's:  Bush 289, Kerry 249

Pct:  Bush 49.4%, Kerry 48.7%

Actual Result - 11/02/04

EV's:  Bush 286, Kerry 252

Pct:  Bush 51%, Kerry 48%



State of the States

Solid Bush States (10% or more)
153 Electoral Votes

Alabama (9)
Alaska (3)
Georgia (15)
Idaho (4)
Indiana (11)
Kansas (6)
Kentucky (8)
Louisiana (9)
Mississippi (6)
Montana (3)
Nebraska (5)
North Dakota (3)
Oklahoma (7)
South Carolina (8)
South Dakota (3)
Tennessee (11)
Texas (34)
Utah (5)
Wyoming (3)


Close Bush States (5-9.99%)
58 Electoral Votes

North Carolina (15) - 9.49%
Virginia (13) - 7.54%
Arizona (10) - 7.50%
West Virginia (5) - 7.01%
Arkansas (6) - 6.44%
Colorado (9) - 6.28%


Really Close Bush States (4.99% or less)
78 Electoral Votes

Missouri (11) - 4.74%
Nevada (5) - 4.10%
Ohio (20) - 2.67%
Florida (27) - 2.38%
Wisconsin (10) - 1.06%
New Mexico (5) - 0.52%


Really Close Kerry States (4.99% or less)
66 Electoral Votes

New Hampshire (4) - 0.28%
Iowa (7) - 0.41%
Pennsylvania (21) - 2.36%
Michigan (17) - 3.33%
Minnesota (10) - 3.62%
Oregon (7) - 3.84%


Close Kerry States (5-9.99%)
74 Electoral Votes

Maine (district 2) (1) - 5.54%
Washington (11) - 6.39%
Maine (at large) (2) - 7.19%
Maine (district 1) (1) - 8.65%
Hawaii (4) - 8.58%
California (55) - 9.80


Solid Kerry States (10% or more)
109 Electoral Votes

Connecticut (7)
DC (3)
Delaware (3)
Illinois (21)
Maryland (10)
Massachusetts (12)
New Jersey (15)
New York (31)
Rhode Island (4)
Vermont (3)


Solid Bush States (10% or more)
183 Electoral Votes

Alabama (9)
Alaska (3)
Arizona (10)
Georgia (15)
Idaho (4)
Indiana (11)
Kansas (6)
Kentucky (8)
Louisiana (9)
Mississippi (6)
Montana (3)
Nebraska (5)
North Carolina (15)
North Dakota (3)
Oklahoma (7)
South Carolina (8)
South Dakota (3)
Tennessee (11)
Texas (34)
Utah (5)
West Virginia (5)
Wyoming (3)


Close Bush States (5-9.99%)
66 Electoral Votes

Arkansas (6) - 9%
Virginia (13) - 9%
Missouri (11) - 8%
Colorado (9) - 7%
Florida (27) - 5%


Really Close Bush States (4.99% or less)
37 Electoral Votes

Nevada (5) - 3%
Ohio (20) - 2%
Iowa (7) - 1%
New Mexico (5) - 1%


Really Close Kerry States (4.99% or less)
69 Electoral Votes

New Hampshire (4) - 1%
Wisconsin (10) - 1%
Pennsylvania (21) - 2%
Michigan (17) - 3%
Minnesota (10) - 3%
Oregon (7) - 4%


Close Kerry States (5-9.99%)
37 Electoral Votes

Delaware (3) - 7
New Jersey (15) - 7%
Washington (11) - 7%
Maine (at large) (2) - 8%
Maine (district 1) (1) - 8%
Maine (district 2) (1) - 8%
Hawaii (4) - 9%


Solid Kerry States (10% or more)
146 Electoral Votes

California (55)
Connecticut (7)
DC (3)
Illinois (21)
Maryland (10)
Massachusetts (12)
New York (31)
Rhode Island (4)
Vermont (3)



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