Arizona
Latest News and Updates
CD-5: SurveyUSA: Mitchell 48%, Hayworth 46% - 11/02/06
CD-5: RATING CHANGE: Mod GOP Hold to Weak GOP Hold - 11/01/06
CD-5: Pundit rating change - 11/01/06
Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Kyl 0 (up 3) - 10/27/06
Sen: Arizona State University: Kyl 47%, Pederson 41% - 10/25/06
Gov: Arizona State University: Napolitano 67%, Munsil 24% - 10/25/06
CD-5: RATING CHANGE: Weak GOP Hold to Mod GOP Hold - 10/24/06
CD-5: Bennett, Petts (D): Hayworth 47%, Mitchell 46% - 10/24/06
Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Napolitano +19 (down 6) - 10/23/06
Sen: Rasmussen: Kyl 51%, Pederson 42% - 10/19/06
Gov: Rasmussen: Napolitano 58%, Munsil 37% - 10/19/06
Sen: Northern Arizona University: Kyl 49%, Pederson 33% - 10/18/06
Sen: SurveyUSA: Kyl 48%, Pederson 43% - 10/18/06
Gov: SurveyUSA: Napolitano 56%, Munsil 37% - 10/18/06
CD-5: RATING CHANGE: Mod GOP Hold to Weak GOP Hold - 10/17/06
CD-5: SurveyUSA: Hayworth 48%, Mitchell 45% - 10/17/06
Replaced TBC with Stuart Rothenberg in House race pundit projections - 10/16/06
CD-8: Pundit rating change - 10/13/06
CD-8: Pundit rating change - 10/11/06
Gov: Behavior Research Center: Napolitano 58%, Munsil 24% - 10/07/06
Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Kyl -3 (down 20) - 10/07/06
Sen: Behavior Research Center: Kyl 45%, Pederson 36% - 10/05/06
Sen: KAET/Arizona State: Kyl 49%, Pederson 38% - 09/28/06
Gov: KAET/Arizona State: Napolitano 64%, Munsil 28% - 09/28/06
Sen: Rasmussen: Kyl 50%, Pederson 39% - 09/26/06
Gov: Rasmussen: Napolitano 56%, Munsil 38% - 09/26/06
CD-8: RATING CHANGE: Weak DEM Gain to Mod DEM Gain - 09/25/06
CD-8: Arizona Daily Star: Giffords 48%, Graf 36% - 09/25/06
Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Napolitano +25 (up 4) - 09/25/06
Sen: SurveyUSA: Kyl 48%, Pederson 43% - 09/20/06
Gov: SurveyUSA: Napolitano 56%, Munsil 40% - 09/20/06
CD-5: RATING CHANGE: Weak GOP Hold to Mod GOP Hold - 09/19/06
CD-5: SurveyUSA: Hayworth 52%, Mitchell 40% - 09/19/06
Tracking initiated and primary winners posted - 09/13/06
Sen: Rasmussen: Kyl 52%, Pederson 34% - 08/31/06
Sen: KAET/Arizona State: Kyl 46%, Pederson 36% - 08/30/06
Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Kyl +17 (up 10) - 08/18/06
Sen: Rasmussen: Kyl 53%, Pederson 34% - 08/02/06
Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Kyl +7 (up 5) - 07/26/06
Sen: SurveyUSA: Kyl 52%, Pederson 40% - 07/18/06
Sen: Tracking Initiated - 07/10/06
Conservative Ranking
Arizona is the 22nd most conservative state, voting
8.0% more Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.
Partisan Trend
Based on voting patterns since 1992, Arizona's partisan trend is STEADY.
GOP Trend Ranking
Arizona ranks 22nd among the 50 states.
Senate Race
Incumbent: GOP incumbent Jon Kyl is up for a second term in 2006. He faced no primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
Jon Kyl - Incumbent 
Democrat Candidates
Jim Pederson - Arizona Democratic Party Chair
Party nominee -
Election Projection: Jon Kyl +7.7
Polling Data
| Polling Firm |
Date |
Kyl |
Pederson |
| ASU |
10/25 |
47% |
41% |
| Rasmussen |
10/19 |
51% |
42% |
| N. Arizona Univ. |
10/18 |
49% |
33% |
| SurveyUSA |
10/18 |
48% |
43% |
Projection Data
| Index |
Raw value |
Weight |
Factor |
| Head-to head polls |
9.0 |
80% |
7.2 |
| Incumbent approval |
0 |
15% |
0.0 |
| State partisanship |
10.5 |
5% |
0.5 |
Projection History
| Date |
Projection |
Rating |
| October 27, 2006 |
Kyl +7.7 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| October 25, 2006 |
Kyl +7.3 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| October 19, 2006 |
Kyl +7.9 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| October 18, 2006 |
Kyl +8.3 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| October 7, 2006 |
Kyl +6.7 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| October 5, 2006 |
Kyl +9.7 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| September 28, 2006 |
Kyl +10.3 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| September 26, 2006 |
Kyl +10.0 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| September 20, 2006 |
Kyl +11.9 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| August 31, 2006 |
Kyl +14.3 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| August 30, 2006 |
Kyl +14.7 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| August 18, 2006 |
Kyl +13.5 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| August 2, 2006 |
Kyl +12.0 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| July 31, 2006 |
Kyl +11.6 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| July 18, 2006 |
Kyl +10.8 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| Preliminary |
|
Strong GOP Hold |
Governor's Race
Incumbent: DEM incumbent Janet Napolitano is up for a second term in 2006. She faced no primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
Don Goldwater
Mike Harris
Len Munsil
Gary Tupper
Democrat Candidates
Janet Napolitano - Incumbent
Party nominee -
Election Projection: Janet Napolitano +24.5
Polling Data
| Polling Firm |
Date |
Munsil |
Napolitano |
| ASU |
10/25 |
24% |
67% |
| Rasmussen |
10/19 |
37% |
58% |
| SurveyUSA |
10/18 |
37% |
56% |
Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party
| Index |
Raw value |
Weight |
Factor |
| Head-to head polls |
27.7 |
80% |
22.1 |
| Incumbent approval |
19 |
15% |
2.9 |
| State partisanship |
-10.5 |
5% |
-0.5 |
Projection History
| Date |
Projection |
Rating |
| October 25, 2006 |
Napolitano +24.5 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| October 23, 2006 |
Napolitano +24.3 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| October 19, 2006 |
Napolitano +25.2 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| October 18, 2006 |
Napolitano +24.6 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| October 7, 2006 |
Napolitano +24.0 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| September 28, 2006 |
Napolitano +21.9 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| September 26, 2006 |
Napolitano +16.8 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| September 20, 2006 |
Napolitano +16.6 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| September 13, 2006 |
Napolitano +17.8 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| Preliminary |
----- |
Strong DEM Hold |
Competitive House Races
District 5
Incumbent: Republican J.D. Hayworth seeks a 7th term in 2006. He faced no primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
J.D. Hayworth - Incumbent
Democrat Candidates
Harry Mitchell - Arizona State Senator
Party nominee -
Election Projection: J.D. Hayworth +3.4
Pundit Predictions
| Pundit |
Date |
Prediction |
| Stuart Rothenberg |
10/13 |
Hayworth by 4 (Lean GOP) |
| Charlie Cook |
10/31 |
Toss-up |
| Larry Sabato |
06/29 |
Hayworth by 4 (Lean GOP) |
| Congressional Quarterly |
07/09 |
Hayworth by 4 (Lean GOP) |
Polling Data
| Polling Firm |
Date |
Hayworth |
Mitchell |
| SurveyUSA |
11/02 |
46% |
48% |
| Bennett, Petts (D) |
10/24 |
47% |
46% |
Projection Data
| Index |
Raw value |
Weight |
Factor |
| Pundit predictions |
3.0 |
45% |
1.4 |
| Head-to-head polls** |
2.5 |
50% |
1.3 |
| District partisanship |
15 |
5% |
0.8 |
| ** - partisan polls adjusted by 3% |
Projection History
| Date |
Projection |
Rating |
| November 2, 2006 |
Hayworth +3.4 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| November 1, 2006 |
Hayworth +4.6 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| October 24, 2006 |
Hayworth +5.1 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| October 17, 2006 |
Hayworth +4.3 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| October 14, 2006 |
Hayworth +6.6 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| September 19, 2006 |
Hayworth +6.7 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| July 18, 2006 |
Hayworth +4.8 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| Preliminary |
----- |
Weak GOP Hold |
District 8
OPEN SEAT: GOP incumbent Jim Kolbe is retiring at the end of his 13th term.
He is not seeking re-election in 2006.
GOP Candidates
Randy Graf - Former Arizona State Representative
Frank Antenori - Iraqi and Afghanistan War Veteran, Retired Special Forces
Mike Hellon - Former Arizona GOP Party Chairman
Steve Huffman - Arizona State Senator
Mark Jenkins - Auto Shop Manager
Democrat Candidates
Gabrielle Giffords - Former Arizona State Senator
Jeff Latas - Desert Storm Veteran
Dwight Leister - Former Business Executive
Alex Rodriguez - Tucson School Board Member
Party nominee -
Election Projection: Gabrielle Giffords +6.9 - DEM pick-up
Pundit Predictions
| Pundit |
Date |
Prediction |
| Stuart Rothenberg |
10/13 |
Giffords by 8 (DEM Favored) |
| Charlie Cook |
10/13 |
Giffords by 4 (Leans DEM) |
| Larry Sabato |
10/13 |
Giffords by 4 (Leans DEM) |
| Congressional Quarterly |
10/11 |
Giffords by 8 (Likely DEM) |
Polling Data
| Polling Firm |
Date |
Graf |
Giffords |
| AZ Dialy Star |
09/25 |
36% |
48% |
Projection Data
| Index |
Raw value |
Weight |
Factor |
| Pundit predictions |
-5.0 |
70% |
-3.5 |
| Head-to-head polls |
-12.0 |
25% |
-3.0 |
| District partisanship |
7 |
5% |
0.4 |
Projection History
| Date |
Projection |
Rating |
| October 16, 2006 |
Giffords +6.9 |
Mod DEM Gain |
| October 11, 2006 |
Giffords +7.2 |
Mod DEM Gain |
| September 25, 2006 |
Giffords +6.5 |
Mod DEM Gain |
| September 13, 2006 |
Giffords +4.3 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| Preliminary |
----- |
Weak GOP Hold |
Other House Races
Projected winner listed first
District 1: Rick Renzi (R)-inc vs. Ellen Simon (D) - possible competitive race
District 2: Trent Franks (R)-inc vs. John Thrasher (D)
District 3: John Shadegg (R)-inc vs. Don Chilton? (D)
District 4: Ed Pastor (D)-inc vs. Don Karg (R)
District 6: Jeffrey Flake (R)-inc vs. Glenn Fuller (D)
District 7: Raul Grijalva (D)-inc vs. Ron Drake (R)
Election Timeline
June 14, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
September 12, 2006 - Primary elections
November 7, 2006 - Election day
Current Partisan Breakdown
| National Delegation |
| Senators |
2 GOP |
| Representatives |
6 GOP, 2 DEM |
| State Government |
| Governor |
DEM |
| Lt. Governor |
GOP |
| State Senate - GOP control |
18 GOP, 12 DEM |
| State House - GOP control |
39 GOP, 21 DEM |
Current Office Holders
Governor: Janet Napolitano (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2006
Lt. Governor: Jan Brewer (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2006
Senior Senator: John McCain (R) - 4th term, up for re-election in 2010
Junior Senator: Jon Kyl (R) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2006
House District 1: Rick Renzi (R) - 2nd term
House District 2: Trent Franks (R) - 2nd term
House District 3: John Shadegg (R) - 6th term
House District 4: Ed Pastor (D) - 8th term
House District 5: J.D. Hayworth (R) - 6th term
House District 6: Jeffrey Flake (R) - 3rd term
House District 7: Raul Grijalva (D) - 2nd term
House District 8: Jim Kolbe (R) - 11th term, not seeking re-election in 2006
Tour The 50 States
Next Stop: Arkansas
Previous Stop: Alaska
Special Thanks to...
Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
Congressional Quarterly
The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
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