Election Projection - 2006 Edition

Election 2006 Projections

Arkansas

Latest News and Updates

Gov: Opinion Research: Beebe 56%, Hutchinson 38% - 10/30/06

Gov: University of Arkansas: Beebe 51%, Hutchinson 38% - 10/27/06

Gov: SurveyUSA: Beebe 58%, Hutchinson 38% - 10/26/06

Gov: Constituent Dynamics: Beebe 52%, Hutchinson 39% - 10/26/06

Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Huckabee +10 (down 5) - 10/23/06

Gov: Opinion Research: Beebe 53%, Hutchinson 35% - 10/03/06

Gov: SurveyUSA: Beebe 55%, Hutchinson 40% - 09/28/06

Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Huckabee +15 (down 3) - 09/25/06

Gov: Rasmussen: Beebe 49%, Hutchinson 38% - 09/12/06

Gov: SurveyUSA: Beebe 55%, Hutchinson 38% - 08/31/06

Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Huckabee +18 (up 8) - 08/27/06

Gov: RATING CHANGE: Mod DEM Gain to Weak DEM Gain - 08/21/06

Gov: Rasmussen: Beebe 45%, Hutchinson 41% - 08/21/06

Gov: Rasmussen: Beebe 47%, Hutchinson 40% - 07/27/06

Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Huckabee +10 (down 7) - 07/23/06

Tracking initiated - 07/10/06

Conservative Ranking

Arkansas is the 23rd most conservative state, voting 7.3% more Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.

Partisan Trend

Based on voting patterns since 1992, Arkansas is trending REPUBLICAN.
NOTE: Arkansas' GOP trend can be largely attributed to the presence of former Gov. Bill Clinton on the ballot in 1992 and 1996.

GOP Trend Ranking

Arkansas ranks 3rd among the 50 states.

Senate Race

No race in 2006

Governor's Race

OPEN SEAT: GOP incumbent Mike Huckabee is finishing up his 2nd full term. He is term-limited and cannot seek a third term.

GOP Candidates

Asa Hutchinson - Former Arkansas Representative to the U.S. House

Democrat Candidates

Mike Beebe - Arkansas Attorney General

Party nominee -

Election Projection: Mike Beebe +13.4 - DEM pick-up

Polling Data

Polling Firm	Date	Hutchinson	Beebe
Opinion Research	10/30	38%	56%
Univ. of Arkansas	10/27	38%	51%
SurveyUSA	10/26	38%	58%
Constituent Dynamics	10/26	39%	52%

Projection Data

Index	Raw value	Weight	Factor
Head-to head polls	-16.0	90%	-14.4
Incumbent approval	10	5%	0.5
State partisanship	9.7	5%	0.5

Projection History

Date	Projection	Rating
October 30, 2006	Beebe +13.4	Mod DEM Gain
October 27, 2006	Beebe +12.8	Mod DEM Gain
October 23, 2006	Beebe +13.9	Mod DEM Gain
October 3, 2006	Beebe +12.0	Mod DEM Gain
September 28, 2006	Beebe +10.5	Mod DEM Gain
September 25, 2006	Beebe +11.4	Mod DEM Gain
September 12, 2006	Beebe +11.2	Mod DEM Gain
August 31, 2006	Beebe +8.1	Mod DEM Gain
August 27, 2006	Beebe +2.2	Weak DEM Gain
August 21, 2006	Beebe +2.6	Weak DEM Gain
July 27, 2006	Beebe +5.3	Mod DEM Gain
July 23, 2006	Beebe +8.9	Mod DEM Gain
July 10, 2006	Beebe +8.6	Mod DEM Gain
Preliminary	-----	Weak DEM Gain

Competitive House Races

No competitive races in 2006

Other House Races

Projected winner listed first

District 1: Marion Berry (D)-inc vs. Mickey Stumbaugh (R)

District 2: Victor Snyder (D)-inc vs. Andy Mayberry (R)

District 3: John Boozman (R)-inc vs. Woodrow Anderson (D)

District 4: Mike Ross (D)-inc vs. Joe Ross (R)

Election Timeline

April 4, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy

May 23, 2006 - Primary elections

June 13, 2006 - Primary runoff elections

November 7, 2006 - Election day

Current Partisan Breakdown

National Delegation
Senators	2 DEM
Representatives	1 GOP, 3 DEM
State Government
Governor	GOP
Lt. Governor	GOP
State Senate - DEM control	8 GOP, 27 DEM
State House - DEM control	28 GOP, 72 DEM