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Colorado
Latest News and Updates
Final projections posted - see each race for late polls and rating changes
CD-7: RATING CHANGE: Weak DEM Gain to Mod DEM Gain - 11/02/06
CD-7: SurveyUSA: O'Donnell 54%, Perlmutter 38% - 11/02/06
CD-7: Constituent Dynamics: Perlmutter 51%, O'Donnell 46% - 10/31/06
Gov: Mason Dixon: Ritter 50%, Beauprez 38% - 10/30/06
CD-7: Pundit rating change - 10/27/06
Gov: SurveyUSA: Ritter 58%, Beauprez 36% - 10/24/06
CD-7: Pundit rating change - 10/24/06
Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Owens +13 (up 3) - 10/23/06
CD-7: Pundit rating change - 10/21/06
Replaced TBC with Stuart Rothenberg in House race pundit projections - 10/16/06
CD-7: RATING CHANGE: Mod DEM Gain to Weak DEM Gain - 10/13/06
CD-7: Constituent Dynamics: Perlmutter 47%, O'Donnell 47% - 10/13/06
CD-7: Pundit rating change - 10/13/06
Gov: RATING CHANGE: Strong DEM Gain to Mod DEM Gain - 10/11/06
Gov: Ciruli Associates: Ritter 43%, Beauprez 33% - 10/11/06
CD-7: SurveyUSA: O'Donnell 45%, Perlmutter 39% - 10/10/06
Gov: Mason Dixon: Ritter 50%, Beauprez 35% - 10/09/06
Gov: SurveyUSA: Ritter 55%, Beauprez 38% - 09/29/06
CD-7: RATING CHANGE: Weak DEM Gain to Mod DEM Gain - 09/27/06
CD-7: SurveyUSA: O'Donnell 54%, Perlmutter 37% - 09/27/06
Gov: RATING CHANGE: Mod DEM Gain to Strong DEM Gain - 09/26/06
Gov: Rasmussen: Ritter 56%, Beauprez 34% - 09/26/06
Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Owens +10 (down 2) - 09/25/06
Gov: Rocky Mountain News: Ritter 50%, Beauprez 33% - 09/18/06
CD-7: Constituent Dynamics: Perlmutter 48%, O'Donnell 46% - 09/07/06
Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Owens +12 (down 8) - 08/27/06
CD-7: SurveyUSA: O'Donnell 45%, Perlmutter 45% - 08/22/06
Gov: SurveyUSA: Ritter 50%, Beauprez 40% - 08/18/06
Gov: RATING CHANGE: Weak DEM Gain to Mod DEM Gain - 08/14/06
Gov: Rasmussen: Ritter 48%, Beauprez 39% - 08/14/06
CD-3: RATING CHANGE: Mod DEM Hold to possibly competitive - 08/08/06
Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Owens +20 (up 9) - 07/23/06
Gov: Rasmussen: Ritter 42%, Beauprez 37% - 07/18/06
Gov: Mason Dixon: Ritter 42%, Beauprez 35% - 07/18/06
Tracking initiated - 07/10/06
Conservative Ranking
Colorado is the 27th most conservative state, voting
2.2% more Republican in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.
Partisan Trend
Based on voting patterns since 1992, Colorado is trending DEMOCRAT.
GOP Trend Ranking
Colorado ranks 41st among the 50 states.
Senate Race
No race in 2006
Governor's Race
OPEN SEAT: GOP incumbent Bill Owens is in his 2nd term. He is term-limited
and cannot seek a third term.
GOP Candidates
Bob Beauprez - Colorado Representative to the U.S. House 
Democrat Candidates
Bill Ritter - Denver District Attorney
Party nominee -
Election Projection: Bill Ritter +16.0 - DEM pick-up
Polling Data
| Polling Firm |
Date |
Beauprez |
Ritter |
| SurveyUSA |
11/01 |
35% |
57% |
| Rocky Mountain News |
10/30 |
33% |
55% |
| Ciruli Associates |
10/26 |
33% |
52% |
| Mason-Dixon |
10/26 |
38% |
50% |
Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party
| Index |
Raw value |
Weight |
Factor |
| Head-to head polls |
-18.8 |
90% |
-16.9 |
| Incumbent approval |
13 |
5% |
0.7 |
| State partisanship |
4.7 |
5% |
0.2 |
Projection History
| Date |
Projection |
Rating |
| Final Projection |
Ritter +16.0 |
Mod DEM Gain |
| October 30, 2006 |
Ritter +12.6 |
Mod DEM Gain |
| October 23, 2006 |
Ritter +13.7 |
Mod DEM Gain |
| October 11, 2006 |
Ritter +13.8 |
Mod DEM Gain |
| October 9, 2006 |
Ritter +15.2 |
Strong DEM Gain |
| September 29, 2006 |
Ritter +16.1 |
Strong DEM Gain |
| September 26, 2006 |
Ritter +16.8 |
Strong DEM Gain |
| September 25, 2006 |
Ritter +11.4 |
Mod DEM Gain |
| September 18, 2006 |
Ritter +11.3 |
Mod DEM Gain |
| August 27, 2006 |
Ritter +7.0 |
Mod DEM Gain |
| August 18, 2006 |
Ritter +6.6 |
Mod DEM Gain |
| August 14, 2006 |
Ritter +6.0 |
Mod DEM Gain |
| July 23, 2006 |
Ritter +4.2 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| July 18, 2006 |
Ritter +4.6 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| Preliminary |
----- |
Weak DEM Gain |
Competitive House Races
District 4
Incumbent: GOP incumbent Marilyn Musgrave is up for a third term in 2006. She faced no primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
Marilyn Musgrave - Incumbent
Democrat Candidates
Angie Paccione - Colorado State Representative
Peggy Lamm - Former Colorado State Representative
Party nominee -
Election Projection: Marilyn Musgrave +0.5
Pundit Predictions
| Pundit |
Date |
Prediction |
| Stuart Rothenberg |
11/06 |
Musgrave by 2 (Tilts GOP) |
| Charlie Cook |
11/01 |
Toss-up |
| Larry Sabato |
11/06 |
Paccione by 2 (Tilts DEM) |
| Congressional Quarterly |
11/01 |
Musgrave by 4 (Leans GOP) |
Polling Data
| Polling Firm |
Date |
Musgrave |
Paccione |
| SurveyUSA |
11/01 |
44% |
43% |
| Constituent Dynamics |
10/26 |
45% |
48% |
Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party
| Index |
Raw value |
Weight |
Factor |
| Pundit predictions |
1.0 |
45% |
0.5 |
| Head-to-head polls |
-1.0 |
50% |
-0.5 |
| District partisanship |
11.5 |
5% |
0.6 |
Projection History
| Date |
Projection |
Rating |
| Final Projection |
Musgrave +0.6 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| November 1, 2006 |
Musgrave +1.9 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| Preliminary |
----- |
not competitive |
District 7
OPEN SEAT: GOP incumbent Bob Beauprez is running for the Colorado governorship in
2006.
GOP Candidates
Rick O'Donnell - Director, Colorado Commission of Higher Education
Democrat Candidates
Ed Perlmutter - Colorado State Senator
Peggy Lamm - Former Colorado State Representative
Party nominee -
Election Projection: Ed Perlmutter +8.1 - DEM pick-up
Pundit Predictions
| Pundit |
Date |
Prediction |
| Stuart Rothenberg |
10/21 |
Perlmutter by 8 (DEM Favored) |
| Charlie Cook |
10/13 |
Perlmutter by 4 (Leans DEM) |
| Larry Sabato |
11/06 |
Perlmutter by 8 (Likely DEM) |
| Congressional Quarterly |
10/27 |
Perlmutter by 4 (Leans DEM) |
Polling Data
| Polling Firm |
Date |
O'Donnell |
Perlmutter |
| SurveyUSA |
10/31 |
38% |
54% |
| Constituent Dynamics |
10/26 |
46% |
51% |
Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party
| Index |
Raw value |
Weight |
Factor |
| Pundit predictions |
-6.0 |
45% |
-2.7 |
| Head-to-head polls |
-10.5 |
50% |
-5.3 |
| District partisanship |
-3 |
5% |
-0.2 |
Projection History
| Date |
Projection |
Rating |
| Final Projection |
Perlmutter +8.1 |
Mod DEM Gain |
| November 1, 2006 |
Perlmutter +7.7 |
Mod DEM Gain |
| October 31, 2006 |
Perlmutter +4.9 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| October 29, 2006 |
Perlmutter +3.9 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| October 24, 2006 |
Perlmutter +3.5 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| October 21, 2006 |
Perlmutter +3.2 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| October 16, 2006 |
Perlmutter +3.0 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| October 13, 2006 |
Perlmutter +2.9 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| October 10, 2006 |
Perlmutter +6.2 |
Mod DEM Gain |
| September 27, 2006 |
Perlmutter +5.2 |
Mod DEM Gain |
| September 7, 2006 |
Perlmutter +1.0 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| August 22, 2006 |
Perlmutter +0.7 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| August 9, 2006 |
Perlmutter +0.9 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| Preliminary |
----- |
Weak DEM Gain |
Other House Races
Projected winner listed first
District 1: Dianna Degette (D)-inc (unopposed)
District 2: Mark Udall (D)-inc vs. Rich Mancuso (R)
District 3: John Salazar (D)-inc vs. Scott Tipton (R)
District 5: OPEN: D. Lamborn (R) vs. J. Fawcett (D) - possible competitive race
District 6: Tom Tancredo (R)-inc vs. Bill Winter (D)
Election Timeline
May 25, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
August 8, 2006 - Primary elections
November 7, 2006 - Election day
Current Partisan Breakdown
| National Delegation |
| Senators |
1 GOP, 1 DEM |
| Representatives |
4 GOP, 3 DEM |
| State Government |
| Governor |
GOP |
| Lt. Governor - tied to Governor |
GOP |
| State Senate - DEM control |
17 GOP, 18 DEM |
| State House - DEM control |
30 GOP, 35 DEM |
Current Office Holders
Governor: Bill Owens (R) - 2nd term, term-limited in 2006
Lt. Governor: Jane Norton (R) - 2nd term, tied to Governor
Senior Senator: Wayne Allard (R) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2008
Junior Senator: Ken Salazar (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2010
House District 1: Dianna Degett (D) - 5th term
House District 2: Mark Udall (D) - 4th term
House District 3: John Salazar (D) - 1st term
House District 4: Marilyn Musgrave (R) - 2nd term
House District 5: Joel Hefley (R) - 10th term (retiring)
House District 6: Tom Tancredo (R) - 4th term
House District 7: Bob Beauprez (R) - 2nd term (running for Governor)
Tour The 50 States
Next Stop: Connecticut
Previous Stop: California
Special Thanks to...
Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
Congressional Quarterly
The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
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