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Rhode Island
Latest News and Updates
Final projections posted - see each race for late polls and rating changes
Sen: Rhode Island College: Whitehouse 43%, Chafee 33% - 10/27/06
Gov: Rhode Island College: Carcieri 49%, Fogarty 35% - 10/27/06
Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Chafee -1 (down 5) - 10/27/06
Sen: Rasmussen: Whitehouse 52%, Chafee 44% - 10/25/06
Gov: Rasmussen: Carcieri 51%, Fogarty 44% - 10/25/06
Sen: Mason-Dixon: Whitehouse 48%, Chafee 43% - 10/25/06
Gov: Mason-Dixon: Carcieri 49%, Fogarty 39% - 10/25/06
Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Carcieri +16 (up 5) - 10/23/06
Sen: Flemming: Whitehouse 45%, Chafee 40% - 10/21/06
Sen: RATING CHANGE: Weak Dem Gain to Mod Dem Gain - 10/11/06
Sen: Rasmussen: Whitehouse 49%, Chafee 39% - 10/11/06
Gov: Rasmussen: Carcieri 47%, Fogarty 44% - 10/11/06
Sen: Rhode Island College: Whitehouse 40%, Chafee 37% - 10/11/06
Gov: Rhode Island College: Carcieri 44%, Fogarty 36% - 10/11/06
Sen: USA Today/Gallup: Whitehouse 50%, Chafee 39% - 10/07/06
Gov: USA Today/Gallup: Carcieri 47%, Fogarty 46% - 10/07/06
Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Chafee +4 (down 3) - 10/07/06
Sen: Mason-Dixon: Whitehouse 42%, Chafee 41% - 10/02/06
Gov: Mason-Dixon: Carcieri 50%, Fogarty 34% - 10/02/06
Gov: RATING CHANGE: Weak GOP Hold to Mod GOP Hold - 09/25/06
Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Carcieri +11 (up 8) - 09/25/06
Gov: RATING CHANGE: Weak Dem Gain to Weak GOP Hold - 09/20/06
Sen: Brown University: Whitehouse 40%, Chafee 39% - 09/20/06
Gov: Brown University: Carcieri 50%, Fogarty 38% - 09/20/06
Sen: Rasmussen: Whitehouse 51%, Chafee 43% - 09/18/06
Sen: Tracking initiated - 09/13/06
Gov: RATING CHANGE: Weak GOP Hold to Weak Dem Gain - 09/05/06
Gov: Rasmussen: Fogarty 46%, Carcieri 41% - 09/05/06
Gov: RATING CHANGE: Weak Dem Gain to Weak GOP Hold - 08/28/06
Gov: Flemming: Carcieri 45%, Fogarty 41% - 08/28/06
Gov: RATING CHANGE: Weak GOP Hold to Weak Dem Gain - 08/27/06
Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Carcieri +3 (down 4) - 08/27/06
Sen: RATING CHANGE: Weak GOP Hold* to Weak Dem Gain* - 08/09/06
Gov: RATING CHANGE: Weak Dem Gain to Weak GOP Hold - 08/09/06
Gov: Rasmussen: Carcieri 43%, Fogarty 43% - 08/09/06
Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Carcieri +7 (up 4) - 07/23/06
Gov: Tracking initiated (assumes Carcieri/Fogarty match-up) - 07/19/06
* - preliminary rating
Conservative Ranking
Rhode Island is the 2nd least conservative state, voting 23.2% less Republican
in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.
Partisan Trend
Based on voting patterns since 1992, Rhode Island's partisan trend is STEADY.
GOP Trend Ranking
Rhode Island ranks 26th among the 50 states.
Senate Race
Incumbent: GOP incumbent Lincoln Chafee is seeking re-election for the first time in 2006. He faced serious primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
Lincoln Chafee - Incumbent 
Stephen Laffey - Cranston Mayor
Democrat Candidates
Sheldon Whitehouse - Former Rhode Island Attorney General
Carl Sheeler
Christopher Young
Rebeka Palmer Rockefeller
Party nominee -
Election Projection: S. Whitehouse +2.0 - DEM pick-up
Polling Data
| Polling Firm |
Date |
Chafee |
Whitehouse |
| USA Today/Gallup |
11/05 |
45% |
48% |
| Mason-Dixon |
11/01 |
46% |
45% |
Projection Data
| Index |
Raw value |
Weight |
Factor |
| Head-to head polls |
-1.0 |
80% |
-0.8 |
| Incumbent approval |
-1 |
15% |
-0.2 |
| State partisanship |
-20.7 |
5% |
-1.0 |
Projection History
| Date |
Projection |
Rating |
| Final Projection |
Whitehouse +2.0 |
Mod DEM Gain |
| October 27, 2006 |
Whitehouse +6.8 |
Mod DEM Gain |
| October 11, 2006 |
Whitehouse +5.2 |
Mod DEM Gain |
| October 7, 2006 |
Whitehouse +4.6 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| October 2, 2006 |
Whitehouse +3.0 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| September 20, 2006 |
Whitehouse +2.6 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| September 18, 2006 |
Whitehouse +2.8 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| September 13, 2006 |
Whitehouse +0.4 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| Preliminary |
----- |
Weak DEM Gain |
Governor's Race
Incumbent: GOP incumbent Don Carcieri is up for re-election for the first time in 2006. He faces only token primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
Don Carcieri - Incumbent
Dennis Michaud
Democrat Candidates
Charles Fogarty - Rhode Island Lt. Governor
Party nominee -
Election Projection: Don Carcieri +7.8
Polling Data
| Polling Firm |
Date |
Carcieri |
Fogarty |
| Mason-Dixon |
11/02 |
50% |
42% |
Projection Data
| Index |
Raw value |
Weight |
Factor |
| Head-to head polls |
8.0 |
80% |
6.4 |
| Incumbent approval |
16 |
15% |
2.4 |
| State partisanship |
-20.7 |
5% |
-1.0 |
Projection History
| Date |
Projection |
Rating |
| Final Projection |
Carcieri +7.8 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| October 27, 2006 |
Carcieri +9.6 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| October 25, 2006 |
Carcieri +8.2 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| October 23, 2006 |
Carcieri +7.8 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| October 11, 2006 |
Carcieri +7.0 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| October 7, 2006 |
Carcieri +6.8 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| October 2, 2006 |
Carcieri +8.6 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| September 25, 2006 |
Carcieri +5.4 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| September 20, 2006 |
Carcieri +4.2 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| September 5, 2006 |
Fogarty +1.0 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| August 28, 2006 |
Carcieri +1.1 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| August 27, 2006 |
Fogarty +0.6 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| August 9 |
Carcieri +0.02 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| July 23, 2006 |
Fogarty +0.8 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| July 19, 2006 |
Fogarty +1.4 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| Preliminary |
----- |
Weak GOP Hold |
Competitive House Races
No competitive races in 2006
Other House Races
Projected winner listed first
District 1: Patrick Kennedy (D)-inc vs. Jonathan Scott (R)
District 2: James Langevin (D)-inc (unopposed)
Election Timeline
June 28, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
September 12, 2006 - Primary elections
November 7, 2006 - Election day
Current Partisan Breakdown
| National Delegation |
| Senators |
1 GOP, 1 DEM |
| Representatives |
2 DEM |
| State Government |
| Governor |
GOP |
| Lt. Governor |
DEM |
| State Senate - DEM control |
4 GOP, 32 DEM |
| State House - DEM control |
14 GOP, 61 DEM |
Current Office Holders
Governor: Don Carcieri (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2006
Lt. Governor: Charles Fogarty (D) - 2nd term, term-limited in 2006
Senior Senator: Jack Reed (D) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2008
Junior Senator: Lincoln Chafee (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2006
House District 1: Patrick Kennedy (D) - 6th term
House District 2: James Langevin (D) - 3rd term
Tour The 50 States
Next Stop: South Carolina
Previous Stop: Pennsylvania
Special Thanks to...
Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
Congressional Quarterly
The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
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