Tennessee
Latest News and Updates
Final projections posted - see each race for late polls and rating changes
Sen: Rasmussen: Corker 49%, Ford 47% - 11/01/06
Sen: CNN: Corker 52%, Ford 44% - 11/01/06
Gov: CNN: Bredesen 59%, Bryson 37% - 11/01/06
Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Frist +2 (down 2) - 10/27/06
Sen: SurveyUSA: Corker 48%, Ford 48% - 10/26/06
Gov: SurveyUSA: Bredesen 66%, Bryson 29% - 10/26/06
Sen: Mason-Dixon: Corker 45%, Ford 43% - 10/25/06
Gov: Mason-Dixon: Bredesen 62%, Bryson 27% - 10/25/06
Sen: LA Times/Bloomberg: Corker 49%, Ford 44% - 10/25/06
Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Bredesen +30 (down 2) - 10/23/06
Sen: RATING CHANGE: Weak DEM Gain to Weak GOP Hold - 10/14/06
Sen: Rasmussen: Ford 48%, Corker 46% - 10/14/06
Sen: SurveyUSA: Corker 48%, Ford 46% - 10/11/06
Gov: SurveyUSA: Bredesen 63%, Bryson 32% - 10/11/06
Sen: USA Today/Gallup: Ford 50%, Corker 45% - 10/07/06
Gov: USA Today/Gallup: Bredesen 66%, Bryson 26% - 10/07/06
Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Frist +4 (down 1) - 10/07/06
Sen: Middle Tennessee State University: Corker 43%, Ford 42% - 10/04/06
Gov: Middle Tennessee State University: Bredesen 59%, Bryson 21% - 10/04/06
Gov: Mason-Dixon: Bredesen 63%, Bryson 22% - 10/03/06
Gov: Rasmussen: Bredesen 63%, Bryson 28% - 10/03/06
Sen: RATING CHANGE: Weak GOP Hold to Weak DEM Gain - 10/02/06
Sen: Rasmussen: Ford 48%, Corker 43% - 10/02/06
Sen: Mason-Dixon: Ford 43%, Corker 42% - 10/02/06
Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Bredesen +32 (up 12) - 09/25/06
Sen: SurveyUSA: Ford 48%, Corker 45% - 09/13/06
Gov: SurveyUSA: Bredesen 63%, Bryson 30% - 09/13/06
Sen: Rasmussen: Corker 45%, Ford 44% - 09/08/06
Gov: Rasmussen: Bredesen 58%, Bryson 31% - 09/08/06
Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Frist +5 (down 2) - 08/18/06
Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Bredesen +20 (down 3) - 08/27/06
Sen: Rasmussen: Corker 48%, Ford 42% - 08/17/06
Tracking initiated - 08/05/06
Conservative Ranking
Tennessee is the 19th most conservative state, voting 11.8% more Republican
in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.
Partisan Trend
Based on voting patterns since 1992, Tennessee is trending REPUBLICAN.
GOP Trend Ranking
Tennessee ranks 9th among the 50 states.
Senate Race
OPEN SEAT: Two-term GOP incumbent Bill Frist will retire in 2007.
GOP Candidates
Ed Bryant - Former Tennessee Representative to the U.S. House
Bob Corker - Former Chattanooga Mayor 
Tate Harrison
Van Hilleary - Former Tennessee Representative to the U.S. House
Democrat Candidates
Harold Ford - Tennessee Representative to the U.S. House
Gary Davis
Rosalind Kurita - Tennessee State Senator
Charles Smith
Al Strauss - Professor
Party nominee -
Election Projection: Bob Corker +6.6
Polling Data
| Polling Firm |
Date |
Corker |
Ford |
| SurveyUSA |
11/05 |
51% |
46% |
| Rasmussen |
11/04 |
51% |
47% |
| USA Today/Gallup |
11/04 |
49% |
46% |
| Mason-Dixon |
11/03 |
50% |
38% |
| CNN |
10/29 |
52% |
44% |
Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party
| Index |
Raw value |
Weight |
Factor |
| Head-to head polls |
6.4 |
90% |
5.8 |
| Incumbent approval |
2 |
5% |
0.1 |
| State partisanship |
14.3 |
5% |
0.7 |
Projection History
| Date |
Projection |
Rating |
| Final Projection |
Corker +6.6 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| November 1, 2006 |
Corker +3.9 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| October 27, 2006 |
Corker +1.9 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| October 26, 2006 |
Corker +2.0 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| October 25, 2006 |
Corker +2.4 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| October 12, 2006 |
Corker +0.02 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| October 11, 2006 |
Ford +0.5 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| October 7, 2006 |
Ford +1.4 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| October 4, 2006 |
Ford +0.8 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| October 2, 2006 |
Ford +1.7 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| September 13, 2006 |
Corker +0.1 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| September 8, 2006 |
Corker +1.9 |
Weak GOP Hold |
| August 18, 2006 |
Corker +9.6 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| August 17, 2006 |
Corker +9.7 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| August 5, 2006 |
Corker +10.7 |
Mod GOP Hold |
| Preliminary |
----- |
Mod GOP Hold |
Governor's Race
Incumbent: Democrat Phil Bredesen is up for re-election for the first time in 2006. He faced only token primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
Mark Albertini - Businessman
Wayne Thomas Bailey
Jim Boyd
Raymond Brown
Jim Bryson
David Farmer
Joe Kirkpatrick
Basil Marceaux
Timothy Thomas
Wayne Young
Democrat Candidates
Phil Bredesen - Incumbent
Tim Sevier - 2002 Congressional Candidate
Walt Ward - Probation Officer
Party nominee -
Election Projection: Phil Bredesen +26.5
Polling Data
| Polling Firm |
Date |
Bryson |
Bredesen |
| SurveyUSA |
11/05 |
34% |
62% |
| Mason-Dixon |
11/03 |
26% |
61% |
| CNN |
10/29 |
37% |
59% |
Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party
| Index |
Raw value |
Weight |
Factor |
| Head-to head polls |
28.3 |
80% |
22.7 |
| Incumbent approval |
30 |
15% |
4.5 |
| State partisanship |
-14.3 |
5% |
-0.7 |
Projection History
| Date |
Projection |
Rating |
| Final Projection |
Bredesen +26.5 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| November 1, 2006 |
Bredesen +28.9 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| October 26, 2006 |
Bredesen +32.6 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| October 25, 2006 |
Bredesen +31.8 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| October 23, 2006 |
Bredesen +33.4 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| October 11, 2006 |
Bredesen +33.7 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| October 7, 2006 |
Bredesen +34.0 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| October 4, 2006 |
Bredesen +33.5 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| October 3, 2006 |
Bredesen +33.2 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| September 25, 2006 |
Bredesen +28.1 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| September 13, 2006 |
Bredesen +26.3 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| September 8, 2006 |
Bredesen +23.9 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| August 27, 2006 |
Bredesen +28.7 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| August 5, 2006 |
Bredesen +29.1 |
Strong DEM Hold |
| Preliminary |
----- |
Strong DEM Hold |
Competitive House Races
No competitive races in 2006
Other House Races
Projected winner listed first
District 1: OPEN: David Davis (R) vs. Rick Trent (D)
District 2: John Duncan (R)-inc vs. John Green (D)
District 3: Zach Wamp (R)-inc vs. Brent Benedict (D)
District 4: Lincoln Davis (D)-inc vs. Ken Martin (R)
District 5: Jim Cooper (D)-inc vs. Tom Kovach (R)
District 6: Bart Gordon (D)-inc vs. David R. Davis (R)
District 7: Marsha Blackburn (R)-inc vs. Bill Morrison (D)
District 8: John Tanner (D)-inc vs. John Farmer (R)
District 9: OPEN: Steve Cohen (D) vs. Mark White (R)
Election Timeline
April 6, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
August 3, 2006 - Primary elections
November 7, 2006 - Election day
Current Partisan Breakdown
| National Delegation |
| Senators |
2 GOP |
| Representatives |
4 GOP, 5 DEM |
| State Government |
| Governor |
DEM |
| State Senate - GOP control |
18 GOP, 15 DEM |
| State House - DEM control |
46 GOP, 53 DEM |
Current Office Holders
Governor: Phil Bredesen (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2006
Senior Senator: Bill Frist (R) - 2nd term, retiring in 2007
Junior Senator: Lamar Alexander (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2008
House District 1: Bill Jenkins (R) - 5th term (retiring)
House District 2: John Duncan (R) - 10th term
House District 3: Zach Wamp (R) - 6th term
House District 4: Lincoln Davis (D) - 2nd term
House District 5: Jim Cooper (D) - 2nd term
House District 6: Bart Gordon (D) - 11th term
House District 7: Marsha Blackburn (R) - 2nd term
House District 8: John Tanner (D) - 9th term
House District 9: Harold Ford, Jr. (D) - 5th term (running for Senate)
Tour The 50 States
Next Stop: Texas
Previous Stop: South Dakota
Special Thanks to...
Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
Congressional Quarterly
The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
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