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Vermont
Latest News and Updates
Final projections posted - see each race for late polls and rating changes
CD-AL: Research 2000: Welch 51%, Rainville 41% - 10/27/06
Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Jeffords +33 (down 6) - 10/27/06
Sen: Research 2000: Sanders 57%, Tarrant 36% - 10/26/06
Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Douglas +21 (down 7) - 10/23/06
Replaced TBC with Stuart Rothenberg in House race pundit projections - 10/16/06
Sen: SurveyUSA approval: Jeffords +39 (up 7) - 10/07/06
Gov: SurveyUSA approval: Douglas +28 (up 2) - 09/25/06
Sen: Research 2000: Sanders 58%, Tarrant 33% - 09/22/06
CD-AL: RATING CHANGE: Weak DEM Gain to Mod DEM Gain - 09/21/06
CD-AL: Research 2000: Welch 45%, Rainville 39% - 09/21/06
Sen: American Research Group: Sanders 55%, Tarrant 40% - 09/15/06
Gov: American Research Group: Douglas 59%, Parker 32% - 09/15/06
Tracking initiated and primary winners posted - 09/13/06
Conservative Ranking
Vermont is the 3rd least conservative state, voting 22.6% less Republican
in the 2004 presidential elections than the national average.
Partisan Trend
Based on voting patterns since 1992, Vermont is trending DEMOCRAT.
GOP Trend Ranking
Vermont ranks LAST among the 50 states.
Senate Race
OPEN SEAT: Independent Jim Jeffords is retiring in 2007 after 3 terms.
Independent Candidates
Bernie Sanders - Vermont Representative to the U.S. House
GOP Candidates
Gregory Parke - Retired Army Officer and Former Candidate
Richard Tarrant - Healthcare Entrepreneur 
Cris Ericson
Democrat Candidates
Bernie Sanders (refused nomination)
Larry Drown - 2004 Congressional Candidate
Peter Moss
Craig Hill
Louis Thabault
Party nominee -
Election Projection: Bernie Sanders +22.8
Polling Data
| Polling Firm |
Date |
Tarrant |
Sanders |
| Research 2000 |
10/26 |
36% |
57% |
Projection Data - positive numbers favor Sanders
| Index |
Raw value |
Weight |
Factor |
| Head-to head polls |
21.0 |
85% |
17.9 |
| Incumbent approval |
33 |
15% |
5.0 |
Projection History
| Date |
Projection |
Rating |
| Final Projection |
Sanders +22.8 |
Strong IND Hold |
| October 27, 2006 |
Sanders +22.8 |
Strong IND Hold |
| October 26, 2006 |
Sanders +23.7 |
Strong IND Hold |
| October 7, 2006 |
Sanders +22.9 |
Strong IND Hold |
| September 22, 2006 |
Sanders +21.8 |
Strong IND Hold |
| September 15, 2006 |
Sanders +15.1 |
Strong IND Hold |
| September 13, 2006 |
Sanders +26.8 |
Strong IND Hold |
| Preliminary |
----- |
Strong IND Hold |
Governor's Race
Incumbent: GOP incumbent Jim Douglas seeks a third term in 2006. He faces no primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
Jim Douglas - Incumbent
Democrat Candidates
Scudder Parker - Former Vermont State Senator
Party nominee -
Election Projection: Jim Douglas +23.7
Polling Data
| Polling Firm |
Date |
Douglas |
Parker |
| ARG |
09/15 |
59% |
32% |
Projection Data - positive numbers favor the incumbent party
| Index |
Raw value |
Weight |
Factor |
| Head-to head polls |
27.0 |
80% |
21.6 |
| Incumbent approval |
21 |
15% |
3.2 |
| State partisanship |
-20.1 |
5% |
-1.0 |
Projection History
| Date |
Projection |
Rating |
| Final Projection |
Douglas +23.7 |
Strong GOP Hold |
| October 23, 2006 |
Douglas +23.7 |
Strong GOP Hold |
| September 25, 2006 |
Douglas +24.8 |
Strong GOP Hold |
| September 15, 2006 |
Douglas +24.5 |
Strong GOP Hold |
| September 13, 2006 |
Douglas +17.3 |
Strong GOP Hold |
| Preliminary |
----- |
Strong GOP Hold |
Competitive House Races
District 1
OPEN SEAT: Independent Bernie Sanders is seeking a Senate seat in 2006.
GOP Candidates
Martha Rainville - Major General, Vermont Air National Guard
Democrat Candidates
Peter Welch - Vermont State Senate President Pro Tem
Party nominee -
Election Projection: Peter Welch +7.0 - DEM pick-up
Pundit Predictions
| Pundit |
Date |
Prediction |
| Stuart Rothenberg |
10/13 |
Welch by 8 (DEM Favored) |
| Charlie Cook |
09/07 |
Welch by 4 |
| Larry Sabato |
08/29 |
Welch by 4 |
| Congressional Quarterly |
08/14 |
Welch by 4 |
Polling Data
| Polling Firm |
Date |
Rainville |
Welch |
| Research 2000 |
10/27 |
41% |
51% |
Projection Data - positive numbers favor Welch
| Index |
Raw value |
Weight |
Factor |
| Pundit predictions |
5.0 |
70% |
3.5 |
| Head-to-head polls |
10.0 |
25% |
2.5 |
| District partisanship |
20.1 |
5% |
1.0 |
Projection History
| Date |
Projection |
Rating |
| Final Projection |
Welch 7.0 |
Mod DEM Gain |
| October 27, 2006 |
Welch 7.0 |
Mod DEM Gain |
| October 16, 2006 |
Welch 5.5 |
Mod DEM Gain |
| September 21, 2006 |
Welch 5.1 |
Mod DEM Gain |
| September 16, 2006 |
Welch 4.6 |
Weak DEM Gain |
| Preliminary |
----- |
Strong DEM Gain |
Other House Races
None
Election Timeline
July 17, 2006 - Deadline to file for candidacy
September 12, 2006 - Primary elections
November 7, 2006 - Election day
Current Partisan Breakdown
| National Delegation |
| Senators |
1 DEM, 1 IND |
| Representatives |
1 IND |
| State Government |
| Governor |
GOP |
| Lt. Governor |
GOP |
| State Senate - DEM control |
9 GOP, 21 DEM |
| State House - DEM control |
60 GOP, 83 DEM, 7 other |
Current Office Holders
Governor: Jim Douglas (R) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2006
Lt. Governor: Brain Dubie (D) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2006
Senior Senator: Patrick Leahy (D) - 6th term, up for re-election in 2010
Junior Senator: Jim Jeffords (I) - 3rd term, not seeking re-election in 2006
House District 1: Bernie Sanders (I) - 8th term (running for Senate)
Tour The 50 States
Next Stop: Virginia
Previous Stop: Utah
Special Thanks to...
Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - Dave Leip
Congressional Quarterly
The Cook Political Report - Charlie Cook
The Crystal Ball - Larry Sabato
DC's Political Report - D.C. Finegold Sachs
RealClearPolitics - Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
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