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2010 Projections

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Alaska  
 
General Information
Latest Polls and Updates

Conservative Ranking


Alaska is the 6th most conservative state, voting 28.80% more Republican in the 2008 presidential elections than the national average.

Partisan Trend


Based on voting patterns since 1992, Alaska is trending REPUBLICAN in presidential elections.

GOP Trend Ranking


Alaska ranks 14th among the 50 states.
 


Senate Race
Incumbent:  GOP incumbent Lisa Murkowski seeks a second full term in 2010.  She currently faces no primary opposition.

GOP Candidates

  • Lisa Murkowski - Incumbent
  • DEM Candidates

  • None at present
  • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Solid GOP Hold

     
    Governor's Race
    Incumbent:  GOP Governor Sean Parnell is running for a first full term in 2010.  He faces primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Sean Parnell - Incumbent
  • Bill Walker
  • DEM Candidates

  • Hollis French - Alaska State Senator
  • Bob Poe
  • Rob Rosenfeld
  • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Solid GOP Hold

     
    Competitive House Races
    No competitive races in 2010
     
    Other House Races
    Projected winner listed first
  • District AL:  Don Young (R)-inc vs. Harry Crawford, Jr. (D) - possibly competitive
  •  
    Additional Information

    Election Timeline


  • June 1, 2010 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • August 24, 2010 - Primary elections
  • November 2, 2010 - Election day
  • Current Partisan Breakdown


     
    National Delegation
      Senators 2 GOP
      Representatives 1 GOP
    State Government
      Governor GOP
      Lt. Governor GOP
      State Senate - Joint control 10 GOP, 10 DEM
      State House - GOP control 22 GOP, 18 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Sean Parnell (R) - 1st term (partial), up for re-election in 2010
  • Lt. Governor:  Craig Campbell (R) - 1st term (partial), tied to Governor
  • Senior Senator:  Lisa Murkowski (R) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2010
  • Junior Senator:  Mark Begich (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2014
  • House District AL:  Don Young (R) - 19th term (might retire)
  • Historical Partisan Snapshot


     
      Race 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

    President Solid R -- Solid R -- Solid R

    Senate
    Class 2 -- Solid R -- -- Weak D
    Class 3 -- -- Weak R -- --

    Governor -- Solid R -- Mod R --

    House 1 GOP 1 GOP 1 GOP 1 GOP 1 GOP
    CD-AL Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Weak R

    BOLD - party turnover
     
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%
  •  

    Alaska Race Tracking
    Senate
    Lisa Murkowski - inc
    vs
    undetermined
    Preliminary
    Solid GOP Hold
     
    Governor
    Sean Parnell - inc
    vs
    undetermined
    Preliminary
    Solid GOP Hold
     
    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political


    Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics


    D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report


    Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas


    Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball


    Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
    RealClearPolitics

    EP's Weekly Poll

    Previous Polls
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