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2010 Projections

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Alabama  
 
General Information
Latest Polls and Updates

Conservative Ranking


Alabama is the 5th most conservative state, voting 28.85% more Republican in the 2008 presidential elections than the national average.

Partisan Trend


Based on voting patterns since 1992, Alabama is trending REPUBLICAN in presidential elections.

GOP Trend Ranking


Alabama ranks 9th among the 50 states.
 


Senate Race
Incumbent:  GOP incumbent Richard Shelby seeks a fifth term in 2010.  He currently faces no primary opposition.

GOP Candidates

  • Richard Shelby - Incumbent
  • DEM Candidates

  • None at present
  • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Solid GOP Hold

     
    Governor's Race
    OPEN SEAT:  GOP Governor Bob Riley is term-limited in 2010.

    GOP Candidates

  • Robert Bentley - Alabama State Senator
  • Bradley Byrne - Former Alabama State Senator
  • Kay Ivey - Alabama State Treasurer
  • Roy Moore - Former Alabama Chief Justice
  • Tim James
  • DEM Candidates

  • Artur Davis - U. S. Representative from Alabama
  • Ron Sparks - Agriculture Commissioner
  • Sam Thomas
  • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Strong GOP Hold

     
    Competitive House Races

    District 2
    Incumbent:  Freshman Democratic incumbent Bobby Bright seeks a second term in 2010.  He currently faces no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Rick Barber
  • Martha Roby - Montgomery Councilwoman
  • DEM Candidates

  • Bobby Bright - Incumbent
  • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Weak DEM Hold

     
    Other House Races
    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Jo Bonner (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)
  • District 3:  Mike Rogers (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)
  • District 4:  Robert Aderholt (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)
  • District 5:  Parker Griffith (R)-inc vs. ??? (D) - possibly competitive
  • District 6:  Spencer Bachus (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)
  • District 7:  OPEN:  ??? (D) vs. ??? (R)
  •  
    Additional Information

    Election Timeline


  • June 1, 2010 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • August 24, 2010 - Primary elections
  • September, 2010 - Primary runoff
  • November 2, 2010 - Election day
  • Current Partisan Breakdown


     
    National Delegation
      Senators 2 GOP
      Representatives 5 GOP, 2 DEM
    State Government
      Governor GOP
      Lt. Governor DEM
      State Senate - DEM control 13 GOP, 21 DEM, 1 IND
      State House - DEM control 44 GOP, 61 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Bob Riley (R) - 2nd term, term-limited in 2010
  • Lt. Governor:  Jim Folsom, Jr. (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2010
  • Senior Senator:  Richard Shelby (R) - 4th term, up for re-election in 2010
  • Junior Senator:  Jeff Sessions (R) - 3rd term, up for re-election in 2014
  • House District 1:  Jo Bonner (R) - 4th term
  • House District 2:  Bobby Bright (D) - 1st term
  • House District 3:  Mike Rogers (R) - 4th term
  • House District 4:  Robert Aderholt (R) - 7th term
  • House District 5:  Parker Griffith (R) - 1st term
  • House District 6:  Spencer Bachus (R) - 9th term
  • House District 7:  Arthur Davis (D) - 4th term (running for governor)
  • Historical Partisan Snapshot


     
      Race 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

    President Solid R -- Solid R -- Solid R

    Senate
    Class 2 -- Solid R -- -- Solid R
    Class 3 -- -- Solid R -- --

    Governor -- Weak R -- Solid R --

    House 5 GOP
    2 DEM
    5 GOP
    2 DEM
    5 GOP
    2 DEM
    5 GOP
    2 DEM
    4 GOP
    3 DEM
    CD-1 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-2 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid D
    CD-3 Solid R Weak R Solid R Solid R Mod R
    CD-4 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-5 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Weak D
    CD-6 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-7 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D

    BOLD - party turnover
     
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%
  •  

    Alabama Race Tracking
    Senate
    Richard Shelby - inc
    vs
    undetermined
    Preliminary
    Solid GOP Hold
     
    Governor (open)
    undetermined
    vs
    undetermined
    Preliminary
    Strong GOP Hold
     
    House District 2
    Bobby Bright - inc
    vs
    undetermined
    Preliminary
    Weak DEM Hold
     
    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political


    Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics


    D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report


    Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas


    Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball


    Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
    RealClearPolitics

    EP's Weekly Poll

    Previous Polls
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