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Arizona  
 
General Information

Election Timeline


  • June 2, 2010 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • August 24, 2010 - Primary elections
  • November 2, 2010 - Election day
  • Latest Polls and Updates


    Conservative Ranking


    Arizona is the 18th most conservative state, voting 15.75% more Republican in the 2008 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Arizona is trending REPUBLICAN in presidential elections.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    Arizona ranks 19th among the 50 states.
     

    Senate Race
    Incumbent:  GOP incumbent John McCain seeks a fifth term in 2010.  He faced primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • John McCain - Incumbent  
  • J.D. Hayworth - Former U.S. Representative from Arizona
  • Jim Deakin
  • DEM Candidates

  • Rodney Glassman - Tucson Council Member  
  • John Dougherty, III
  • Catherine Rose Eden
  • Randy Parraz
  • Party nominee -

    Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

     
    Governor's Race
    Incumbent:  GOP incumbent Jan Brewer seeks election to a first full term in 2010. She faced primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Jan Brewer - Incumbent  
  • Matthew Jette
  • Dean Martin - Arizona State Treasurer
  • Owen Mills
  • DEM Candidates

  • Bill Brady - Illinois State Senator  
  • Terry Goddard - Arizona Attorney General
  • Party nominee -

    Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

     
    Competitive House Races

    District 1 (map)
    Incumbent:  Democratic incumbent Anne Kirkpatrick is up re-election for the first time in 2010.  She faced no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Paul Gosar  
  • Bradley Beauchamp
  • Rusty Bowers
  • Sydney Hay
  • Joe Jaraczewski
  • Jon Jensen
  • Steve Mehta
  • Thomas Zaleski
  • DEM Candidates

  • Anne Kirkpatrick - Incumbent  
  • Party nominee -

    Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

     

    District 5 (map)
    Incumbent:  Democratic incumbent Harry Mitchell is up for a third term in 2010.  He faced no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • David Schweikert - 2008 Nominee  
  • Lee Gentry
  • Chris Salvino
  • Susan Bitter Smith
  • Mark Vincent Spinks
  • Jim Ward
  • DEM Candidates

  • Harry Mitchell - Incumbent  
  • Party nominee -

    Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

     

    District 7 (map)
    Incumbent:  Democratic incumbent Raul Grijalva is up for a fourth term in 2010.

    GOP Candidates

  • Ruth McClung  
  • DEM Candidates

  • Raul Grijalva - Incumbent  
  • Party nominee -

    Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

     

    District 8 (map)
    Incumbent:  Democratic incumbent Gabrielle Giffords is up for a third term in 2010.  She faced no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Jesse Kelly  
  • Jonathan Paton - Arizona State Senator
  • Jay Quick
  • DEM Candidates

  • Gabrielle Giffords - Incumbent  
  • Party nominee -

    Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

     
    Other House Races
    Projected winner listed first
  • District 2:  Trent Franks (R)-inc vs. John Thrasher (D)
  • District 3:  OPEN: Ben Quayle (R) vs. Jon Hulburd (D) - possibly competitive
  • District 4:  Ed Pastor (D)-inc vs. Janet Contreras (R)
  • District 6:  Jeffrey Flake (R)-inc vs. Rebecca Schneider (D)
  •  
    Additional Information
    Current Partisan Breakdown
     
    National Delegation
      Senators 2 GOP
      Representatives 3 GOP, 5 DEM
    State Government
      Governor GOP
      State Senate - GOP control 18 GOP, 12 DEM
      State House - GOP control 35 GOP, 25 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Jan Brewer (R) - 1st term (partial), up for election in 2010
  • Senior Senator:  John McCain (R) - 4th term, up for re-election in 2010
  • Junior Senator:  Jon Kyl (R) - 3rd term, up for re-election in 2012
  • House District 1:  Anne Kirkpatrick (D) - 1st term
  • House District 2:  Trent Franks (R) - 4th term
  • House District 3:  John Shadegg (R) - 8th term (retiring)
  • House District 4:  Ed Pastor (D) - 10th term
  • House District 5:  Harold Mitchell (D) - 2nd term
  • House District 6:  Jeffrey Flake (R) - 5th term
  • House District 7:  Raul Grijalva (D) - 3rd term
  • House District 8:  Gabrielle Giffords (D) - 2nd term
  • Historical Partisan Snapshot


     
      Race 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

    President Mod R -- Strong R -- Mod R

    Senate
    Class 1 Solid R -- -- Mod R --
    Class 3 -- -- Solid R -- --

    Governor -- Weak D -- Solid D --

    House 4 GOP
    2 DEM
    6 GOP
    2 DEM
    6 GOP
    2 DEM
    4 GOP
    4 DEM
    3 GOP
    5 DEM
    CD-1 Mod R Weak R Solid R Mod R Solid D
    CD-2 Solid D Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-3 Solid R Weak R Solid R Solid R Strong R
    CD-4 Solid R Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-5 Solid D Solid R Solid R Weak D Mod D
    CD-6 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-7 NA Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-8 NA Solid R Solid R Mod D Strong D

    BOLD - party turnover
     
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%
  •  

    Arizona Race Tracking
    Senate
    John McCain - inc
    vs
    Rodney Glassman
    Projected Winner
    Governor
    Jan Brewer - inc
    vs
    Terry Goddard
    Projected Winner
    House District 1
    Anne Kirkpatrick - inc
    vs
    Paul Gosar
    Projected Winner
    House District 5
    Harry Mitchell - inc
    vs
    David Schweikert
    Projected Winner
    House District 7
    Raul Grijalva - inc
    vs
    Ruth McClung
    Projected Winner
    House District 8
    Gabrielle Giffords - inc
    vs
    Jesse Kelly
    Projected Winner
    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political


    Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics


    D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report


    Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas


    David Wissing
    The Hedgehog Report


    Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball


    Richard & Tony
    The Green Papers


    Rose Institute
    Redistricting in America


    Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
    RealClearPolitics

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