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Latest Polls and Updates
Conservative Ranking
Arizona is the 18th most conservative state, voting
15.75% more Republican in the 2008 presidential elections than the national average.
Partisan Trend
Based on voting patterns since 1992, Arizona is trending REPUBLICAN in presidential
elections.
GOP Trend Ranking
Arizona ranks 19th among the 50 states.
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Incumbent: GOP incumbent John McCain seeks a fifth term in 2010. He faces primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
John McCain - Incumbent
J.D. Hayworth - Former U.S. Representative from Arizona
Jim Deakin
Chris Simcox - Minutemen Founder
DEM Candidates
Rudy Garcia - Former Mayor of Bell Gardens, CA.
Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.
Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries
Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries
Preliminary Projection - Solid GOP Hold
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Incumbent: GOP incumbent Jan Brewer seeks election to a first full term in 2010. She faces primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
Jan Brewer - Incumbent
Robert Graham
Karen Johnson - Former Arizona State Senator
Hugh Kealer
John Munger
Tim Willis
Janelle Wood
DEM Candidates
David Bradley - Arizona State Representative
Phil Gordon - Mayor of Phoenix
Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.
Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries
Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries
Preliminary Projection - Weak GOP Hold
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District 1
Incumbent: Democratic incumbent Anne Kirkpatrick is up re-election for the first time in 2010. She currently faces no primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
Bradley Beauchamp
Paul Gosar
Jon Jensen
DEM Candidates
Anne Kirkpatrick - Incumbent
Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.
Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries
Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries
Preliminary Projection - Mod DEM Hold
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District 5
Incumbent: Democratic incumbent Harry Mitchell is up for a third term in 2010. He currently faces no primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
David Schweikert - 2008 Nominee
DEM Candidates
Harry Mitchell - Incumbent
Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.
Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries
Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries
Preliminary Projection - Mod DEM Hold
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District 8
Incumbent: Democratic incumbent Gabrielle Giffords is up for a third term in 2010. She currently faces no primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
Jonathan Paton - Arizona State Senator
Andy Goss
Jesse Kelly
Brian Miller
DEM Candidates
Gabrielle Giffords - Incumbent
Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.
Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries
Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries
Preliminary Projection - Mod DEM Hold
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Projected winner listed first
District 2: Trent Franks (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)
District 3: OPEN: ??? (R) vs. ??? (D) - possibly competitive
District 4: Ed Pastor (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
District 6: Jeffrey Flake (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)
District 7: Raul Grijalva (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
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Election Timeline
June 2, 2010 - Deadline to file for candidacy
August 31, 2010 - Primary elections
November 2, 2010 - Election day
Current Partisan Breakdown
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| National Delegation |
| Senators |
2 GOP |
| Representatives |
3 GOP, 5 DEM |
| State Government |
| Governor |
GOP |
| State Senate - GOP control |
18 GOP, 12 DEM |
| State House - GOP control |
35 GOP, 25 DEM |
Current Office Holders
Governor: Jan Brewer (R) - 1st term (partial), up for election in 2010
Senior Senator: John McCain (R) - 4th term, up for re-election in 2010
Junior Senator: Jon Kyl (R) - 3rd term, up for re-election in 2012
House District 1: Anne Kirkpatrick (D) - 1st term
House District 2: Trent Franks (R) - 4th term
House District 3: John Shadegg (R) - 8th term (retiring)
House District 4: Ed Pastor (D) - 10th term
House District 5: Harold Mitchell (D) - 2nd term
House District 6: Jeffrey Flake (R) - 5th term
House District 7: Raul Grijalva (D) - 3rd term
House District 8: Gabrielle Giffords (D) - 2nd term
Historical Partisan Snapshot
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| Race |
2000 |
2002 |
2004 |
2006 |
2008 |
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| President |
Mod R |
-- |
Strong R |
-- |
Mod R |
Senate |
| Class 1 |
Solid R |
-- |
-- |
Mod R |
-- |
| Class 3 |
-- |
-- |
Solid R |
-- |
-- |
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| Governor |
-- |
Weak D |
-- |
Solid D |
-- |
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| House |
4 GOP
2 DEM |
6 GOP
2 DEM |
6 GOP
2 DEM |
4 GOP
4 DEM |
3 GOP
5 DEM |
| CD-1 |
Mod R |
Weak R |
Solid R |
Mod R |
Solid D |
| CD-2 |
Solid D |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
| CD-3 |
Solid R |
Weak R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Strong R |
| CD-4 |
Solid R |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
| CD-5 |
Solid D |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Weak D |
Mod D |
| CD-6 |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
| CD-7 |
NA |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
| CD-8 |
NA |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Mod D |
Strong D |
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BOLD - party turnover
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Race ratings:
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"Weak" - less than 5%
"Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
"Strong" - 10% to 15%
"Solid" - greater than 15%
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