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California  
 
General Information

Election Timeline

  • March 12, 2010 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • June 8, 2010 - Primary elections
  • November 2, 2010 - Election day

    • Latest Polls and Updates

    Conservative Ranking

    California is the 9th least conservative state, voting 16.76% less Republican in the 2008 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend

    Based on voting patterns since 1992, California is trending DEMOCRAT in presidential elections.

    GOP Trend Ranking

    California ranks 45th among the 50 states.
     


    Senate Race
    Incumbent:  Democrat Barbara Boxer seeks a fourth term in 2010.  She faced only minor primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Carly Fiorina  
  • Thomas Campbell - Former U.S. Representative from California
  • Chuck Devore - California State Assemblyman
  • Al Ramirez
  • Timothy Kalemkarian

    • DEM Candidates

  • Barbara Boxer - Incumbent  
  • Robert "Mickey" Kaus
  • Brian Quintana

    • Party nominee -

    Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

     
    Governor's Race
    OPEN SEAT:  GOP Governor Ahnold Schwarzenegger is term-limited in 2010.

    GOP Candidates

  • Meg Whitman  
  • Steve Poizner - California State Insurance Commissioner
  • William Chambers
  • Douglas Hughes
  • Kenneth Miller
  • Lawrence Naritelli
  • Robert Newman, II
  • David Tully-Smith

    • DEM Candidates

  • Jerry Brown, Jr. - Attorney General & Former Governor  
  • Richard Aguirre
  • Lowell Darling
  • Vilbert Green
  • Charles Pindea, Jr.
  • Peter Schurman
  • Joe Symmon

    • Party nominee -

    Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

     
    Competitive House Races

    District 3 (map)
    Incumbent:  Republican incumbent Dan Lungren seeks a ninth term in 2010.  He faced no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Dan Lungren - Incumbent  

    • DEM Candidates

  • Amerish Bera  

    • Party nominee -

    Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

     

    District 11 (map)
    Incumbent:  Democratic incumbent Jerry McNerney seeks a third term in 2010.  He faced no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • David Harmer  
  • Tony Amador - Former U.S. Marshall
  • Brad Goehring
  • Elizabeth Emken

    • DEM Candidates

  • Jerry McNerney - Incumbent  

    • Party nominee -

    Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

     

    District 45 (map)
    Incumbent:  Republican incumbent Mary Bono Mack seeks a seventh term in 2010.  She faced only minor primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Mary Bono Mack - Incumbent  
  • Clayton Thibodeau

    • DEM Candidates

  • Steve Pougnet - Mayor of Palm Springs  

    • Party nominee -

    Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Other House Races
    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Michael Thompson (D)-inc vs. Loren Hanks (R)
  • District 2:  Wally Herger (R)-inc vs. James Reed (D)
  • District 4:  Tom McClintock (R)-inc vs. Clint Curtis (D)
  • District 5:  Doris Matsui (D)-inc vs. Paul Smith (R)
  • District 6:  Lynn Woolsey (D)-inc vs. Jim Judd (R)
  • District 7:  George Miller (D)-inc vs. Rick Tubbs (R)
  • District 8:  Nancy Pelosi (D)-inc vs. John Dennis (R)
  • District 9:  Barbara Lee (D)-inc vs. Gerald Hashimoto (R)
  • District 10:  John Garamendi (D)-inc vs. Buddy Burke (R)
  • District 12:  Jackie Speier (D) vs. Mike Moloney (R)
  • District 13:  Pete Stark (D)-inc vs. Forest Baker (R)
  • District 14:  Anna Eshoo (D)-inc vs. Dave Chapman (R)
  • District 15:  Michael Honda (D)-inc vs. Scott Kirkland (R)
  • District 16:  Zoe Lofgren (D)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 17:  Sam Farr (D)-inc vs. Jeff Taylor (R)
  • District 18:  Dennis Cardoza (D)-inc vs. Mike Berryhill (R) - possibly competitive
  • District 19:  OPEN: Loraine Goodwin (R) vs. Jeff Denham (D)
  • District 20:  Jim Costa (D)-inc vs. Andy Vidak (R) - possibly competitive
  • District 21:  Devin Nunes (R)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 22:  Kevin McCarthy (R)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 23:  Lois Capps (D)-inc vs. Thomas Watson (R)
  • District 24:  Elton Gallegly (R)-inc vs. Tim Allison (D)
  • District 25:  Buck McKeon (R)-inc vs. Jackie Conaway (D)
  • District 26:  David Dreier (R)-inc vs. Russ Warner (D)
  • District 27:  Brad Sherman (D)-inc vs. Mark Reed, Sr. (R)
  • District 28:  Howard Berman (D)-inc vs. Erik "Merlin" Froyd (R)
  • District 29:  Adam Schiff (D)-inc vs. John Colbert (R)
  • District 30:  Henry Waxman (D)-inc vs. Charles Wilkerson (R)
  • District 31:  Xavier Becerra (D)-inc vs. Stephen Smith (R)
  • District 32:  Judy Chu (D)-inc vs. Edward Schmerling (R)
  • District 33:  OPEN: Karen Bass (D) vs. James Andion (R)
  • District 34:  Lucille Royball-Allard (D)-inc vs. Wayne Miller (R)
  • District 35:  Maxine Waters (D)-inc vs. Bruce Brown (R)
  • District 36:  Jane Harman (D)-inc vs. Mattie Fein (R)
  • District 37:  Laura Richardson (D) vs. Star Parker (R)
  • District 38:  Grace Napolitano (D)-inc vs. Robert Vaughn (R)
  • District 39:  Linda Sanchez (D)-inc vs. Larry Andre (R)
  • District 40:  Edward Royce (R)-inc vs. Christine Avalos (D)
  • District 41:  Jerry Lewis (R)-inc vs. Patrick Meagher (D)
  • District 42:  Gary Miller (R)-inc vs. Michael Williamson (D)
  • District 43:  Joe Baca (D)-inc vs. Scott Folkens (R)
  • District 44:  Kenneth Calvert (R)-inc vs. Bill Hedrick (D) - possibly competitive
  • District 46:  Dana Rohrabacher (R)-inc vs. Ken Arnold (D)
  • District 47:  Loretta Sanchez (D)-inc vs. Van Tran (R) - possibly competitive
  • District 48:  John Campbell (R)-inc vs. Beth Krom (D)
  • District 49:  Darrell Issa (R)-inc vs. Howard Katz (D)
  • District 50:  Brian Bilbray (R)-inc vs. Francine Busby (D)
  • District 51:  Bob Filner (D)-inc vs. Nicholas Popaditch (R)
  • District 52:  Duncan D. Hunter? (R) vs. Ray Lutz (D)
  • District 53:  Susan Davis (D)-inc vs. Michael Crimmins (R)
    		•
     
    Additional Information
    Current Partisan Breakdown
     
    National Delegation
      Senators 2 DEM
      Representatives 19 GOP, 34 DEM
    State Government
      Governor GOP
      Lt. Governor vacant
      State Senate - DEM control 14 GOP, 26 DEM
      State Assembly - DEM control 29 GOP, 50 DEM, 1 IND

    Current Office Holders

  • Governor:  Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) - 2nd term, term-limited in 2010
  • Lt. Governor:  vacant - next election in 2010
  • Senior Senator:  Dianne Feinstein (D) - 4th term, up for re-election in 2012
  • Junior Senator:  Barbara Boxer (D) - 3rd term, up for re-election in 2010
  • House District 1:  Michael Thompson (D) - 6th term
  • House District 2:  Wally Herger (R) - 12th term
  • House District 3:  Daniel Lungren (R) - 8th term
  • House District 4:  Tom McClintock (R) - 1st term
  • House District 5:  Doris Matsui (D) - 3rd term
  • House District 6:  Lynn Woolsey (D) - 9th term
  • House District 7:  George Miller (D) - 18th term
  • House District 8:  Nancy Pelosi (D) - 12th term
  • House District 9:  Barbara Lee (D) - 6th term
  • House District 10:  John Garamendi (D) - 1st term (partial)
  • House District 11:  Jerry McNerney (D) - 2nd term
  • House District 12:  Jackie Speier (D) - 2nd term
  • House District 13:  Pete Stark (D) - 19th term
  • House District 14:  Anna Eshoo (D) - 9th term
  • House District 15:  Michael Honda (D) - 5th term
  • House District 16:  Zoe Lofgren (D) - 8th term
  • House District 17:  Sam Farr (D) - 9th term
  • House District 18:  Dennis Cardoza (D) - 4th term
  • House District 19:  George Radanovich (R) - 8th term (retiring)
  • House District 20:  Jim Costa (D) - 3rd term
  • House District 21:  Devin Nunes (R) - 4th term
  • House District 22:  Kevin McCarthy (R) - 2nd term
  • House District 23:  Lois Capps (D) - 6th term
  • House District 24:  Elton Gallegly (R) - 13th term
  • House District 25:  Buck McKeon (R) - 9th term
  • House District 26:  David Dreier (R) - 15th term
  • House District 27:  Brad Sherman (D) - 7th term
  • House District 28:  Howard Berman (D) - 14th term
  • House District 29:  Adam Schiff (D) - 5th term
  • House District 30:  Henry Waxman (D) - 18th term
  • House District 31:  Xavier Becerra (D) - 9th term
  • House District 32:  Judy Chu (D) - 1st term
  • House District 33:  Diane Watson (D) - 5th term
  • House District 34:  Lucille Royball-Allard (D) - 9th term
  • House District 35:  Maxine Waters (D) - 10th term
  • House District 36:  Jane Harman (D) - 5th term
  • House District 37:  Laura Richardson (D) - 2nd term
  • House District 38:  Grace Napolitano (D) - 6th term
  • House District 39:  Linda Sanchez (D) - 4th term
  • House District 40:  Edward Royce (R) - 8th term
  • House District 41:  Jerry Lewis (R) - 16th term
  • House District 42:  Gary Miller (R) - 6th term
  • House District 43:  Joe Baca (D) - 6th term
  • House District 44:  Kenneth Calvert (R) - 9th term
  • House District 45:  Mary Bono Mack (R) - 6th term
  • House District 46:  Dana Rohrabacher (R) - 11th term
  • House District 47:  Loretta Sanchez (D) - 7th term
  • House District 48:  John Campbell (R) - 3rd term
  • House District 49:  Darrell Issa (R) - 5th term
  • House District 50:  Brian Bilbray (R) - 3rd term
  • House District 51:  Bob Filner (D) - 9th term
  • House District 52:  Duncan D. Hunter (R) - 1st term
  • House District 53:  Susan Davis (D) - 5th term

    • Historical Partisan Snapshot
     
      Race 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
    President Strong D -- Mod D -- Solid D
    Senate
    Class 1 Solid D -- -- Solid D --
    Class 3 -- -- Solid D -- --
    Governor -- Mod D -- Solid R --
    House 20 GOP
    32 DEM    		 20 GOP
    33 DEM    		 20 GOP
    33 DEM    		 19 GOP
    34 DEM    		 19 GOP
    34 DEM
    CD-1 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-2 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-3 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Mod R
    CD-4 Solid R Solid R Solid R Weak R Weak R
    CD-5 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-6 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-7 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-8 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-9 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-10 Mod D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-11 Solid R Solid R Solid R Mod D Strong D
    CD-12 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-13 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-14 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-15 Strong D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-16 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-17 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-18 Solid D Mod D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-19 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-20 Mod D Solid D Mod D Solid D Solid D
    CD-21 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-22 Mod D Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-23 Strong R Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-24 Solid D Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-25 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Strong R
    CD-26 Solid D Solid R Strong R Solid R Strong R
    CD-27 Mod D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-28 Solid R Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-29 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-30 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-31 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-32 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-33 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-34 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-35 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-36 Weak D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-37 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-38 Weak R Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-39 Solid R Strong D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-40 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-41 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-42 Solid D Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-43 Solid R Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-44 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Weak R
    CD-45 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-46 Solid D Solid R Solid R Solid R Strong R
    CD-47 Solid R Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-48 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Strong R
    CD-49 Weak D Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-50 Solid D Solid R Solid R Strong R Weak R
    CD-51 Solid R Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-52 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-53 NA Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    BOLD - party turnover
     
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%
    •
     

    California Race Tracking
    Senate
    Barbara Boxer - inc
    vs
    Carly Fiorina
    Projected Winner
    Governor - open
    Meg Whitman
    vs
    Jerry Brown, Jr.
    Projected Winner
    House District 3
    Dan Lungren - inc
    vs
    Amerish Bera
    Projected Winner
    House District 11
    Jerry McNerney - inc
    vs
    David Harmer
    Projected Winner
    House District 45
    Mary Bono Mack - inc
    vs
    Steve Pougnet
    Projected Winner
    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political

     Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics

     D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report

     Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas

     David Wissing
    The Hedgehog Report

     Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball

     Richard & Tony
    The Green Papers

     Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
    RealClearPolitics
    EP's Weekly Poll

    Previous Polls
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