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California  
 
General Information
Latest Polls and Updates

Conservative Ranking

California is the 9th least conservative state, voting 16.76% less Republican in the 2008 presidential elections than the national average.

Partisan Trend

Based on voting patterns since 1992, California is trending DEMOCRAT in presidential elections.

GOP Trend Ranking

California ranks 45th among the 50 states.
 


Senate Race
Incumbent:  Democrat Barbara Boxer seeks a fourth term in 2010.  She currently faces no primary opposition.

GOP Candidates

  • Carly Fiorina
  • Chuck Devore - California State Assemblyman
  • Abel Maldonado - California State Senator

    • DEM Candidates

  • Barbara Boxer - Incumbent

    • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Mod DEM Hold

     
    Governor's Race
    OPEN SEAT:  GOP Governor Ahnold Schwarzenegger is term-limited in 2010.

    GOP Candidates

  • Tom Campbell - Former U.S. Representative from California
  • Steve Poizner - California State Insurance Commissioner
  • Meg Whitman

    • DEM Candidates

  • Richard Aguirre

    • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Mod DEM Gain

     
    Competitive House Races

    District 3
    Incumbent:  Republican incumbent Dan Lungren seeks a ninth term in 2010.  He currently faces no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Dan Lungren - Incumbent

    • DEM Candidates

  • Amerish Bera
  • Bill Slaton

    • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Weak GOP Hold

     

    District 11
    Incumbent:  Democratic incumbent Jerry McNerney seeks a third term in 2010.  He currently faces no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Tony Amador - Former U.S. Marshall
  • Robert Beadles
  • David Bernal
  • Brad Goehring
  • Elizabeth Emken
  • Larry Pegram - Former San Jose City Council Member

    • DEM Candidates

  • Jerry McNerney - Incumbent

    • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Mod DEM Hold

     

    District 44
    Incumbent:  Republican incumbent Kenneth Calvert seeks a tenth term in 2010.  He faces minor primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Kenneth Calvert - Incumbent
  • Chris Riggs

    • DEM Candidates

  • Bill Hedrick - 2008 Nominee

    • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Mod GOP Hold

     

    District 45
    Incumbent:  Republican incumbent Mary Bono Mack seeks a seventh term in 2010.  She currently faces no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Mary Bono Mack - Incumbent

    • DEM Candidates

  • Steve Pougnet - Mayor of Palm Springs

    • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Mod GOP Hold

     

    District 47
    Incumbent:  Democratic incumbent Loretta Sanchez seeks a eighth term in 2010.  She currently faces no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Van Tran - California State Assemblyman
  • Quang Pham

    • DEM Candidates

  • Loretta Sanchez - Incumbent

    • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Mod DEM Hold

     
    Other House Races
    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Michael Thompson (D)-inc vs. Zane Starkewolf (R)
  • District 2:  Wally Herger (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)
  • District 4:  Tom McClintock (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)
  • District 5:  Doris Matsui (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
  • District 6:  Lynn Woolsey (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
  • District 7:  George Miller (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
  • District 8:  Nancy Pelosi (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
  • District 9:  Barbara Lee (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
  • District 10:  John Garamendi (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
  • District 12:  Jackie Speier (D) vs. ??? (R)
  • District 13:  Pete Stark (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
  • District 14:  Anna Eshoo (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
  • District 15:  Michael Honda (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
  • District 16:  Zoe Lofgren (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
  • District 17:  Sam Farr (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
  • District 18:  Dennis Cardoza (D)-inc vs. ??? (R) - possibly competitive
  • District 19:  George Radanovich (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)
  • District 20:  Jim Costa (D)-inc vs. ??? (R) - possibly competitive
  • District 21:  Devin Nunes (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)
  • District 22:  Kevin McCarthy (R)-inc vs. ??? (R)
  • District 23:  Lois Capps (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
  • District 24:  Elton Gallegly (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)
  • District 25:  Buck McKeon (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)
  • District 26:  David Dreier (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)
  • District 27:  Brad Sherman (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
  • District 28:  Howard Berman (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
  • District 29:  Adam Schiff (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
  • District 30:  Henry Waxman (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
  • District 31:  Xavier Becerra (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
  • District 32:  Hilda Solis (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
  • District 33:  OPEN: ??? (D) vs. ??? (R)
  • District 34:  Lucille Royball-Allard (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
  • District 35:  Maxine Waters (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
  • District 36:  Jane Harman (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
  • District 37:  Laura Richardson (D) vs. ??? (R)
  • District 38:  Grace Napolitano (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
  • District 39:  Linda Sanchez (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
  • District 40:  Edward Royce (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)
  • District 41:  Jerry Lewis (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)
  • District 42:  Gary Miller (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)
  • District 43:  Joe Baca (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
  • District 46:  Dana Rohrabacher (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)
  • District 48:  John Campbell (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)
  • District 49:  Darrell Issa (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)
  • District 50:  Brian Bilbray (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)
  • District 51:  Bob Filner (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
  • District 52:  Duncan D. Hunter (R) vs. ??? (D)
  • District 53:  Susan Davis (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
    		•
     
    Additional Information

    Election Timeline

  • March 12, 2010 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • June 8, 2010 - Primary elections
  • November 2, 2010 - Election day

    • Current Partisan Breakdown
     
    National Delegation
      Senators 2 DEM
      Representatives 19 GOP, 34 DEM
    State Government
      Governor GOP
      Lt. Governor vacant
      State Senate - DEM control 14 GOP, 26 DEM
      State Assembly - DEM control 29 GOP, 50 DEM, 1 IND

    Current Office Holders

  • Governor:  Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) - 2nd term, term-limited in 2010
  • Lt. Governor:  vacant - next election in 2010
  • Senior Senator:  Dianne Feinstein (D) - 4th term, up for re-election in 2012
  • Junior Senator:  Barbara Boxer (D) - 3rd term, up for re-election in 2010
  • House District 1:  Michael Thompson (D) - 6th term
  • House District 2:  Wally Herger (R) - 12th term (might retire)
  • House District 3:  Daniel Lungren (R) - 8th term
  • House District 4:  Tom McClintock (R) - 1st term
  • House District 5:  Doris Matsui (D) - 3rd term
  • House District 6:  Lynn Woolsey (D) - 9th term
  • House District 7:  George Miller (D) - 18th term (might retire)
  • House District 8:  Nancy Pelosi (D) - 12th term (might retire)
  • House District 9:  Barbara Lee (D) - 6th term
  • House District 10:  John Garamendi (D) - 1st term (partial)
  • House District 11:  Jerry McNerney (D) - 2nd term
  • House District 12:  Jackie Speier (D) - 2nd term
  • House District 13:  Pete Stark (D) - 19th term (might retire)
  • House District 14:  Anna Eshoo (D) - 9th term
  • House District 15:  Michael Honda (D) - 5th term
  • House District 16:  Zoe Lofgren (D) - 8th term
  • House District 17:  Sam Farr (D) - 9th term
  • House District 18:  Dennis Cardoza (D) - 4th term
  • House District 19:  George Radanovich (R) - 8th term
  • House District 20:  Jim Costa (D) - 3rd term
  • House District 21:  Devin Nunes (R) - 4th term
  • House District 22:  Kevin McCarthy (R) - 2nd term
  • House District 23:  Lois Capps (D) - 6th term
  • House District 24:  Elton Gallegly (R) - 13th term (might retire)
  • House District 25:  Buck McKeon (R) - 9th term
  • House District 26:  David Dreier (R) - 15th term (might retire)
  • House District 27:  Brad Sherman (D) - 7th term
  • House District 28:  Howard Berman (D) - 14th term (might retire)
  • House District 29:  Adam Schiff (D) - 5th term
  • House District 30:  Henry Waxman (D) - 18th term (might retire)
  • House District 31:  Xavier Becerra (D) - 9th term
  • House District 32:  Judy Chu (D) - 1st term
  • House District 33:  Diane Watson (D) - 5th term (retiring)
  • House District 34:  Lucille Royball-Allard (D) - 9th term
  • House District 35:  Maxine Waters (D) - 10th term (might retire)
  • House District 36:  Jane Harman (D) - 5th term
  • House District 37:  Laura Richardson (D) - 2nd term
  • House District 38:  Grace Napolitano (D) - 6th term (might retire)
  • House District 39:  Linda Sanchez (D) - 4th term
  • House District 40:  Edward Royce (R) - 8th term
  • House District 41:  Jerry Lewis (R) - 16th term (might retire)
  • House District 42:  Gary Miller (R) - 6th term
  • House District 43:  Joe Baca (D) - 6th term
  • House District 44:  Kenneth Calvert (R) - 9th term
  • House District 45:  Mary Bono Mack (R) - 6th term
  • House District 46:  Dana Rohrabacher (R) - 11th term (might retire)
  • House District 47:  Loretta Sanchez (D) - 7th term
  • House District 48:  John Campbell (R) - 3rd term
  • House District 49:  Darrell Issa (R) - 5th term
  • House District 50:  Brian Bilbray (R) - 3rd term
  • House District 51:  Bob Filner (D) - 9th term
  • House District 52:  Duncan D. Hunter (R) - 1st term
  • House District 53:  Susan Davis (D) - 5th term

    • Historical Partisan Snapshot
     
      Race 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
    President Strong D -- Mod D -- Solid D
    Senate
    Class 1 Solid D -- -- Solid D --
    Class 3 -- -- Solid D -- --
    Governor -- Mod D -- Solid R --
    House 20 GOP
    32 DEM    		 20 GOP
    33 DEM    		 20 GOP
    33 DEM    		 19 GOP
    34 DEM    		 19 GOP
    34 DEM
    CD-1 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-2 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-3 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Mod R
    CD-4 Solid R Solid R Solid R Weak R Weak R
    CD-5 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-6 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-7 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-8 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-9 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-10 Mod D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-11 Solid R Solid R Solid R Mod D Strong D
    CD-12 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-13 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-14 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-15 Strong D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-16 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-17 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-18 Solid D Mod D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-19 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-20 Mod D Solid D Mod D Solid D Solid D
    CD-21 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-22 Mod D Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-23 Strong R Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-24 Solid D Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-25 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Strong R
    CD-26 Solid D Solid R Strong R Solid R Strong R
    CD-27 Mod D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-28 Solid R Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-29 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-30 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-31 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-32 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-33 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-34 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-35 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-36 Weak D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-37 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-38 Weak R Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-39 Solid R Strong D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-40 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-41 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-42 Solid D Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-43 Solid R Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-44 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Weak R
    CD-45 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-46 Solid D Solid R Solid R Solid R Strong R
    CD-47 Solid R Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-48 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Strong R
    CD-49 Weak D Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-50 Solid D Solid R Solid R Strong R Weak R
    CD-51 Solid R Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-52 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-53 NA Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    BOLD - party turnover
     
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%
    •
     

    California Race Tracking
    Senate
    Barbara Boxer - inc
    vs
    undetermined
    Preliminary
    Mod DEM Hold
     
    Governor - open
    undetermined
    vs
    undetermined
    Preliminary
    Mod DEM Gain
     
    House District 3
    Dan Lungren - inc
    vs
    undetermined
    Preliminary
    Weak GOP Hold
     
    House District 11
    Jerry McNerney - inc
    vs
    undetermined
    Preliminary
    Mod DEM Hold
     
    House District 44
    Ken Calvert - inc
    vs
    undetermined
    Preliminary
    Mod GOP Hold
     
    House District 45
    Mary Bono Mack - inc
    vs
    undetermined
    Preliminary
    Mod GOP Hold
     
    House District 47
    Loretta Sanchez - inc
    vs
    undetermined
    Preliminary
    Mod DEM Hold
     
    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political

     Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics

     D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report

     Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas

     Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball

     Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
    RealClearPolitics
    EP's Weekly Poll

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