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| California |
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Latest Polls and Updates
Conservative Ranking
California is the 9th least conservative state, voting
16.76% less Republican in the 2008 presidential elections than the national average.
Partisan Trend
Based on voting patterns since 1992, California is trending DEMOCRAT in presidential
elections.
GOP Trend Ranking
California ranks 45th among the 50 states.
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Incumbent: Democrat Barbara Boxer seeks a fourth term in 2010. She currently faces no primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
Carly Fiorina
Chuck Devore - California State Assemblyman
Abel Maldonado - California State Senator
DEM Candidates
Barbara Boxer - Incumbent
Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.
Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries
Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries
Preliminary Projection - Mod DEM Hold
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OPEN SEAT: GOP Governor Ahnold Schwarzenegger is term-limited in 2010.
GOP Candidates
Tom Campbell - Former U.S. Representative from California
Steve Poizner - California State Insurance Commissioner
Meg Whitman
DEM Candidates
Richard Aguirre
Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.
Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries
Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries
Preliminary Projection - Mod DEM Gain
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District 3
Incumbent: Republican incumbent Dan Lungren seeks a ninth term in 2010. He currently faces no primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
Dan Lungren - Incumbent
DEM Candidates
Amerish Bera
Bill Slaton
Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.
Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries
Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries
Preliminary Projection - Weak GOP Hold
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District 11
Incumbent: Democratic incumbent Jerry McNerney seeks a third term in 2010. He currently faces no primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
Tony Amador - Former U.S. Marshall
Robert Beadles
David Bernal
Brad Goehring
Elizabeth Emken
Larry Pegram - Former San Jose City Council Member
DEM Candidates
Jerry McNerney - Incumbent
Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.
Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries
Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries
Preliminary Projection - Mod DEM Hold
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District 44
Incumbent: Republican incumbent Kenneth Calvert seeks a tenth term in 2010. He faces minor primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
Kenneth Calvert - Incumbent
Chris Riggs
DEM Candidates
Bill Hedrick - 2008 Nominee
Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.
Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries
Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries
Preliminary Projection - Mod GOP Hold
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District 45
Incumbent: Republican incumbent Mary Bono Mack seeks a seventh term in 2010. She currently faces no primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
Mary Bono Mack - Incumbent
DEM Candidates
Steve Pougnet - Mayor of Palm Springs
Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.
Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries
Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries
Preliminary Projection - Mod GOP Hold
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District 47
Incumbent: Democratic incumbent Loretta Sanchez seeks a eighth term in 2010. She currently faces no primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
Van Tran - California State Assemblyman
Quang Pham
DEM Candidates
Loretta Sanchez - Incumbent
Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.
Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries
Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries
Preliminary Projection - Mod DEM Hold
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Projected winner listed first
District 1: Michael Thompson (D)-inc vs. Zane Starkewolf (R)
District 2: Wally Herger (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)
District 4: Tom McClintock (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)
District 5: Doris Matsui (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
District 6: Lynn Woolsey (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
District 7: George Miller (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
District 8: Nancy Pelosi (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
District 9: Barbara Lee (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
District 10: John Garamendi (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
District 12: Jackie Speier (D) vs. ??? (R)
District 13: Pete Stark (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
District 14: Anna Eshoo (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
District 15: Michael Honda (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
District 16: Zoe Lofgren (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
District 17: Sam Farr (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
District 18: Dennis Cardoza (D)-inc vs. ??? (R) - possibly competitive
District 19: George Radanovich (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)
District 20: Jim Costa (D)-inc vs. ??? (R) - possibly competitive
District 21: Devin Nunes (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)
District 22: Kevin McCarthy (R)-inc vs. ??? (R)
District 23: Lois Capps (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
District 24: Elton Gallegly (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)
District 25: Buck McKeon (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)
District 26: David Dreier (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)
District 27: Brad Sherman (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
District 28: Howard Berman (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
District 29: Adam Schiff (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
District 30: Henry Waxman (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
District 31: Xavier Becerra (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
District 32: Hilda Solis (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
District 33: OPEN: ??? (D) vs. ??? (R)
District 34: Lucille Royball-Allard (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
District 35: Maxine Waters (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
District 36: Jane Harman (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
District 37: Laura Richardson (D) vs. ??? (R)
District 38: Grace Napolitano (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
District 39: Linda Sanchez (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
District 40: Edward Royce (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)
District 41: Jerry Lewis (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)
District 42: Gary Miller (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)
District 43: Joe Baca (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
District 46: Dana Rohrabacher (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)
District 48: John Campbell (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)
District 49: Darrell Issa (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)
District 50: Brian Bilbray (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)
District 51: Bob Filner (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
District 52: Duncan D. Hunter (R) vs. ??? (D)
District 53: Susan Davis (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
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Election Timeline
March 12, 2010 - Deadline to file for candidacy
June 8, 2010 - Primary elections
November 2, 2010 - Election day
Current Partisan Breakdown
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| National Delegation |
| Senators |
2 DEM |
| Representatives |
19 GOP, 34 DEM |
| State Government |
| Governor |
GOP |
| Lt. Governor |
vacant |
| State Senate - DEM control |
14 GOP, 26 DEM |
| State Assembly - DEM control |
29 GOP, 50 DEM, 1 IND |
Current Office Holders
Governor: Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) - 2nd term, term-limited in 2010
Lt. Governor: vacant - next election in 2010
Senior Senator: Dianne Feinstein (D) - 4th term, up for re-election in 2012
Junior Senator: Barbara Boxer (D) - 3rd term, up for re-election in 2010
House District 1: Michael Thompson (D) - 6th term
House District 2: Wally Herger (R) - 12th term (might retire)
House District 3: Daniel Lungren (R) - 8th term
House District 4: Tom McClintock (R) - 1st term
House District 5: Doris Matsui (D) - 3rd term
House District 6: Lynn Woolsey (D) - 9th term
House District 7: George Miller (D) - 18th term (might retire)
House District 8: Nancy Pelosi (D) - 12th term (might retire)
House District 9: Barbara Lee (D) - 6th term
House District 10: John Garamendi (D) - 1st term (partial)
House District 11: Jerry McNerney (D) - 2nd term
House District 12: Jackie Speier (D) - 2nd term
House District 13: Pete Stark (D) - 19th term (might retire)
House District 14: Anna Eshoo (D) - 9th term
House District 15: Michael Honda (D) - 5th term
House District 16: Zoe Lofgren (D) - 8th term
House District 17: Sam Farr (D) - 9th term
House District 18: Dennis Cardoza (D) - 4th term
House District 19: George Radanovich (R) - 8th term
House District 20: Jim Costa (D) - 3rd term
House District 21: Devin Nunes (R) - 4th term
House District 22: Kevin McCarthy (R) - 2nd term
House District 23: Lois Capps (D) - 6th term
House District 24: Elton Gallegly (R) - 13th term (might retire)
House District 25: Buck McKeon (R) - 9th term
House District 26: David Dreier (R) - 15th term (might retire)
House District 27: Brad Sherman (D) - 7th term
House District 28: Howard Berman (D) - 14th term (might retire)
House District 29: Adam Schiff (D) - 5th term
House District 30: Henry Waxman (D) - 18th term (might retire)
House District 31: Xavier Becerra (D) - 9th term
House District 32: Judy Chu (D) - 1st term
House District 33: Diane Watson (D) - 5th term (retiring)
House District 34: Lucille Royball-Allard (D) - 9th term
House District 35: Maxine Waters (D) - 10th term (might retire)
House District 36: Jane Harman (D) - 5th term
House District 37: Laura Richardson (D) - 2nd term
House District 38: Grace Napolitano (D) - 6th term (might retire)
House District 39: Linda Sanchez (D) - 4th term
House District 40: Edward Royce (R) - 8th term
House District 41: Jerry Lewis (R) - 16th term (might retire)
House District 42: Gary Miller (R) - 6th term
House District 43: Joe Baca (D) - 6th term
House District 44: Kenneth Calvert (R) - 9th term
House District 45: Mary Bono Mack (R) - 6th term
House District 46: Dana Rohrabacher (R) - 11th term (might retire)
House District 47: Loretta Sanchez (D) - 7th term
House District 48: John Campbell (R) - 3rd term
House District 49: Darrell Issa (R) - 5th term
House District 50: Brian Bilbray (R) - 3rd term
House District 51: Bob Filner (D) - 9th term
House District 52: Duncan D. Hunter (R) - 1st term
House District 53: Susan Davis (D) - 5th term
Historical Partisan Snapshot
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| Race |
2000 |
2002 |
2004 |
2006 |
2008 |
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| President |
Strong D |
-- |
Mod D |
-- |
Solid D |
Senate |
| Class 1 |
Solid D |
-- |
-- |
Solid D |
-- |
| Class 3 |
-- |
-- |
Solid D |
-- |
-- |
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| Governor |
-- |
Mod D |
-- |
Solid R |
-- |
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| House |
20 GOP 32 DEM |
20 GOP 33 DEM |
20 GOP 33 DEM |
19 GOP 34 DEM |
19 GOP 34 DEM |
| CD-1 |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
| CD-2 |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
| CD-3 |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Mod R |
| CD-4 |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Weak R |
Weak R |
| CD-5 |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
| CD-6 |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
| CD-7 |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
| CD-8 |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
| CD-9 |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
| CD-10 |
Mod D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
| CD-11 |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Mod D |
Strong D |
| CD-12 |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
| CD-13 |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
| CD-14 |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
| CD-15 |
Strong D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
| CD-16 |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
| CD-17 |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
| CD-18 |
Solid D |
Mod D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
| CD-19 |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
| CD-20 |
Mod D |
Solid D |
Mod D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
| CD-21 |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
| CD-22 |
Mod D |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
| CD-23 |
Strong R |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
| CD-24 |
Solid D |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
| CD-25 |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Strong R |
| CD-26 |
Solid D |
Solid R |
Strong R |
Solid R |
Strong R |
| CD-27 |
Mod D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
| CD-28 |
Solid R |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
| CD-29 |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
| CD-30 |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
| CD-31 |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
| CD-32 |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
| CD-33 |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
| CD-34 |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
| CD-35 |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
| CD-36 |
Weak D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
| CD-37 |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
| CD-38 |
Weak R |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
| CD-39 |
Solid R |
Strong D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
| CD-40 |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
| CD-41 |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
| CD-42 |
Solid D |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
| CD-43 |
Solid R |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
| CD-44 |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Weak R |
| CD-45 |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
| CD-46 |
Solid D |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Strong R |
| CD-47 |
Solid R |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
| CD-48 |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Strong R |
| CD-49 |
Weak D |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
| CD-50 |
Solid D |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Strong R |
Weak R |
| CD-51 |
Solid R |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
| CD-52 |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
| CD-53 |
NA |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
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BOLD - party turnover |
Race ratings:
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"Weak" - less than 5%
"Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
"Strong" - 10% to 15%
"Solid" - greater than 15%
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