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2010 Projections

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Iowa  
 
General Information
Latest Polls and Updates

Conservative Ranking


Iowa is the 22nd least conservative state, voting 2.27% less Republican in the 2008 presidential elections than the national average.

Partisan Trend


Based on voting patterns since 1992, Iowa is trending DEMOCRAT in presidential elections.

GOP Trend Ranking


Iowa ranks 26th among the 50 states.
 


Senate Race
Incumbent:  Republican incumbent Chuck Grassley is up for a sixth term in 2010.  He currently faces no primary opposition.

GOP Candidates

  • Chuck Grassley - Incumbent
  • DEM Candidates

  • Tom Fiegan
  • Bob Krause
  • Saleh Mohamed
  • Roxanne Conlin
  • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Strong GOP Hold

     
    Governor's Race
    Incumbent:  Democratic incumbent Chet Culver seeks re-election for the first time in 2010.  He faces no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Terry Branstad - Former Governor of Iowa
  • Christopher Rants - Iowa State Representative
  • Rod Roberts - Iowa State Representative
  • Bob Vander Plaats
  • DEM Candidates

  • Chet Culver - Incumbent
  • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Weak GOP Gain

     
    Competitive House Races

    District 3
    Incumbent:  Democratic incumbent Leonard Boswell seeks an eighth term in 2010.  He currently faces no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Brad Zaun - Iowa State Senator
  • Mike Mahaffey
  • Jim Gibbons
  • Mark Rees
  • Dave Funk
  • Patrick Bertroche
  • Jason Welch
  • DEM Candidates

  • Leonard Boswell - Incumbent
  • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Mod DEM Hold

     
    Other House Races
    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Bruce Braley (D)-inc vs. Rod Blum (R) - possibly competitive
  • District 2:  David Loebsack (D)-inc vs. ??? (R) - possibly competitive
  • District 4:  Tom Latham (R)-inc vs. Bill Maske (D)
  • District 5:  Steve King (R)-inc vs. Mike Denklau (D)
  •  
    Additional Information

    Election Timeline


  • March 19, 2010 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • June 8, 2010 - Primary elections
  • November 2, 2010 - Election day
  • Current Partisan Breakdown


     
    National Delegation
      Senators 1 GOP, 1 DEM
      Representatives 2 GOP, 3 DEM
    State Government
      Governor DEM
      Lt. Governor DEM
      State Senate - DEM control 19 GOP, 31 DEM
      State House - DEM control 44 GOP, 56 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Chet Culver (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2010
  • Lt. Governor:  Patty Judge (D) - 1st term, tied to Governor
  • Senior Senator:  Chuck Grassley (R) - 5th term, up for re-election in 2010
  • Junior Senator:  Tom Harkin (D) - 5th term, up for re-election in 2014
  • House District 1:  Bruce Braley (D) - 2nd term
  • House District 2:  David Loebsack (D) - 2nd term
  • House District 3:  Leonard Boswell (D) - 7th term
  • House District 4:  Tom Latham (R) - 8th term
  • House District 5:  Steve King (R) - 4th term
  • Historical Partisan Snapshot


     
      Race 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

    President Weak D -- Weak R -- Mod D

    Senate
    Class 2 -- Mod D -- -- Solid D
    Class 3 -- -- Solid R -- --

    Governor -- Strong D -- Strong D --

    House 4 GOP
    1 DEM
    4 GOP
    1 DEM
    4 GOP
    1 DEM
    2 GOP
    3 DEM
    2 GOP
    3 DEM
    CD-1 Solid R Strong R Strong R Strong D Solid D
    CD-2 Strong R Mod R Solid R Weak D Solid D
    CD-3 Solid D Mod D Strong D Mod D Strong D
    CD-4 Solid R Strong R Solid R Strong R Solid R
    CD-5 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R

    BOLD - party turnover
     
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%
  •  

    Iowa Race Tracking
    Senate
    Chuck Grassley - inc
    vs
    undetermined
    Preliminary
    Strong GOP Hold
    Governor
    Chet Culver - inc
    vs
    undetermined
    Preliminary
    Weak GOP Gain
     
    House District 3
    Leonard Boswell - inc
    vs
    undetermined
    Preliminary
    Mod DEM Hold
     
    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political


    Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics


    D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report


    Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas


    Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball


    Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
    RealClearPolitics

    EP's Weekly Poll

    Previous Polls
    2010 Projections, State-by-State

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