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2010 Projections

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Idaho  
 
General Information
Latest Polls and Updates

Conservative Ranking


Idaho is the 4th most conservative state, voting 32.57% more Republican in the 2008 presidential elections than the national average.

Partisan Trend


Based on voting patterns since 1992, Idaho is trending REPUBLICAN in presidential elections.

GOP Trend Ranking


Idaho ranks 10th among the 50 states.
 


Senate Race
Incumbent:  Republican incumbent Mike Crapo seeks a third term in 2010.  He faces no primary opposition.

GOP Candidates

  • Mike Crapo - Incumbent
  • DEM Candidates

  • William Bryk - 2004 Federalist Party Presidential Candidate
  • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Solid GOP Hold

     
    Governor's Race
    Incumbent:  Republican incumbent Butch Otter seeks re-election for the first time in 2010.  He faces minor primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Butch Otter - Incumbent
  • Ron Peterson
  • DEM Candidates

  • Lane Stratin - 2002 Nevada Congressional Candidate
  • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Solid GOP Hold

     
    Competitive House Races

    District 1
    Incumbent:  Freshman Democratic incumbent Walt Minnick seeks a second term in 2010.  He currently faces no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Michael Chadwick
  • DEM Candidates

  • Walt Minnick - Incumbent
  • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Weak GOP Gain

     
    Other House Races
    Projected winner listed first
  • District 2:  Mike Simpson (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)
  •  
    Additional Information

    Election Timeline


  • March, 2010 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • May, 2010 - Primary elections
  • November 2, 2010 - Election day
  • Current Partisan Breakdown


     
    National Delegation
      Senators 2 GOP
      Representatives 1 GOP, 1 DEM
    State Government
      Governor GOP
      Lt. Governor GOP
      State Senate - GOP control 28 GOP, 7 DEM
      State House - GOP control 52 GOP, 18 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  C.L. "Butch" Otter (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2010
  • Lt. Governor:  Brad Little (R) - 1st term (partial), up for re-election in 2010
  • Senior Senator:  Michael Crapo (R) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2010
  • Junior Senator:  Jim Risch (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2014
  • House District 1:  Walt Minnick (D) - 1st term
  • House District 2:  Michael Simpson (R) - 6th term
  • Historical Partisan Snapshot


     
      Race 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

    President Solid GOP -- Solid GOP -- Solid GOP

    Senate
    Class 2 -- Solid GOP -- -- Solid GOP
    Class 3 -- -- Solid GOP -- --

    Governor -- Strong GOP -- Mod GOP --

    House 2 GOP 2 GOP 2 GOP 2 GOP 1 GOP
    1 DEM
    CD-1 Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP Mod GOP Weak D
    CD-2 Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP Solid GOP

    BOLD - party turnover
     
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%
  •  

    Idaho Race Tracking
    Senate
    Mike Crapo - inc
    vs
    undetermined
    Preliminary
    Solid GOP Hold
     
    Governor
    Butch Otter - inc
    vs
    undetermined
    Preliminary
    Solid GOP Hold
     
    House District 1
    Walt Minnick - inc
    vs
    undetermined
    Preliminary
    Weak GOP Gain
     
    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political


    Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics


    D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report


    Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas


    Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball


    Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
    RealClearPolitics

    EP's Weekly Poll

    Previous Polls
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