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Latest Polls and Updates
Conservative Ranking
Kentucky is the 9th most conservative state, voting
23.49% more Republican in the 2008 presidential elections than the national average.
Partisan Trend
Based on voting patterns since 1992, Kentucky is trending REPUBLICAN in presidential
elections.
GOP Trend Ranking
Kentucky ranks 6th among the 50 states.
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OPEN SEAT: GOP incumbent Jim Bunning is not seeking re-election in 2010. The two-term senator is retiring.
GOP Candidates
Trey Grayson, III - Kentucky Secretary of State
Rand Paul
Bill Johnson
Gurley Martin
Jon Scribner
John Stephenson
DEM Candidates
Jack Conway - Kentucky Attorney General
Daniel Mongiardo - Kentucky Lt. Governor
James Buckmaster
Darlene Price
Maurice Sweeney
Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.
Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries
Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries
Preliminary Projection - Weak GOP Hold
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No competitive races in 2010
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Projected winner listed first
District 1: Edward Whitfield (R)-inc vs. Charles Hatchett (D)
District 2: Brett Guthrie (R)-inc vs. Ed Marksberry (D)
District 3: John Yarmuth (D)-inc vs. ??? (R) - possibly competitive
District 4: Geoff Davis (R)-inc vs. John Walz (D)
District 5: Hal Rogers (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)
District 6: Ben Chandler (D)-inc vs. ??? (R) - possibly competitive
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Election Timeline
January 26, 2010 - Deadline to file for candidacy
May 18, 2010 - Primary elections
November 2, 2010 - Election day
Current Partisan Breakdown
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| National Delegation |
| Senators |
2 GOP |
| Representatives |
4 GOP, 2 DEM |
| State Government |
| Governor |
DEM |
| Lt. Governor |
DEM |
| State Senate - GOP control |
22 GOP, 15 DEM, 1 IND |
| State House - DEM control |
35 GOP, 65 DEM |
Current Office Holders
Governor: Steven Beshear (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2011
Lt. Governor: Daniel Mongiardo (D) - 1st term, tied to Gov. (running for Senate)
Senior Senator: Mitch McConnell (R) - 5th term, up for re-election in 2014
Junior Senator: Jim Bunning (R) - 2nd term, not running in 2010
House District 1: Edward Whitfield (R) - 9th term
House District 2: Brett Guthrie (R) - 1st term
House District 3: John Yarmuth (D) - 2nd term
House District 4: Geoff Davis (R) - 3rd term
House District 5: Hal Rogers (R) - 15th term
House District 6: Ben Chandler (D) - 3rd term
Historical Partisan Snapshot
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| Race |
2000 |
2002 |
2004 |
2006 |
2008 |
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| President |
Solid R |
-- |
Solid R |
-- |
Solid R |
Senate |
| Class 2 |
-- |
Solid R |
-- |
-- |
Mod R |
| Class 3 |
-- |
-- |
Weak R |
-- |
-- |
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Governor
(2003-2007) |
-- |
Strong R |
-- |
Solid D |
-- |
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| House |
5 GOP
1 DEM |
5 GOP
1 DEM |
5 GOP
1 DEM |
4 GOP
2 DEM |
4 GOP
2 DEM |
| CD-1 |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
| CD-2 |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Strong R |
Mod R |
| CD-3 |
Mod R |
Weak R |
Solid R |
Weak D |
Strong D |
| CD-4 |
Strong D |
Weak D |
Strong R |
Mod R |
Solid R |
| CD-5 |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
| CD-6 |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
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BOLD - party turnover
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Race ratings:
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"Weak" - less than 5%
"Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
"Strong" - 10% to 15%
"Solid" - greater than 15%
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