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Kentucky  
 
General Information

Election Timeline


  • January 26, 2010 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • May 18, 2010 - Primary elections
  • November 2, 2010 - Election day
  • Latest Polls and Updates


    Conservative Ranking


    Kentucky is the 9th most conservative state, voting 23.49% more Republican in the 2008 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Kentucky is trending REPUBLICAN in presidential elections.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    Kentucky ranks 6th among the 50 states.
     

    Senate Race
    OPEN SEAT:  GOP incumbent Jim Bunning is not seeking re-election in 2010. The two-term senator is retiring.

    GOP Candidates

  • Rand Paul  
  • Trey Grayson, III - Kentucky Secretary of State
  • Gurley Martin
  • Jon Scribner
  • John Stephenson
  • DEM Candidates

  • Jack Conway - Kentucky Attorney General  
  • Daniel Mongiardo - Kentucky Lt. Governor
  • James Buckmaster
  • Darlene Price
  • Maurice Sweeney
  • Party nominee -

    Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

     
    Governor's Race
    No race in 2010
     
    Competitive House Races

    District 3 (map)
    Incumbent:  Democratic incumbent John Yarmuth seeks a third term in 2010.  He faced no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Todd Lally  
  • Larry Hausman
  • Jeff Reetz
  • Brooks Wicker, Jr.
  • DEM Candidates

  • John Yarmuth - Incumbent  
  • Party nominee -

    Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

     

    District 6 (map)
    Incumbent:  Democratic incumbent Ben Chandler seeks a fourth term in 2010.  He faced no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Andy Barr  
  • DEM Candidates

  • Ben Chandler - Incumbent  
  • Party nominee -

    Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

     
    Other House Races
    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Edward Whitfield (R)-inc vs. Charles Hatchett (D)
  • District 2:  Brett Guthrie (R)-inc vs. Ed Marksberry (D)
  • District 3:  John Yarmuth (D)-inc vs. Todd Lally (R) - possibly competitive
  • District 4:  Geoff Davis (R)-inc vs. John Walz (D)
  • District 5:  Hal Rogers (R)-inc vs. Jim Holbert (D)
  •  
    Additional Information
    Current Partisan Breakdown
     
    National Delegation
      Senators 2 GOP
      Representatives 4 GOP, 2 DEM
    State Government
      Governor DEM
      Lt. Governor DEM
      State Senate - GOP control 22 GOP, 15 DEM, 1 IND
      State House - DEM control 35 GOP, 65 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Steven Beshear (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2011
  • Lt. Governor:  Daniel Mongiardo (D) - 1st term, tied to Gov. (running for Senate)
  • Senior Senator:  Mitch McConnell (R) - 5th term, up for re-election in 2014
  • Junior Senator:  Jim Bunning (R) - 2nd term, not running in 2010
  • House District 1:  Edward Whitfield (R) - 9th term
  • House District 2:  Brett Guthrie (R) - 1st term
  • House District 3:  John Yarmuth (D) - 2nd term
  • House District 4:  Geoff Davis (R) - 3rd term
  • House District 5:  Hal Rogers (R) - 15th term
  • House District 6:  Ben Chandler (D) - 3rd term
  • Historical Partisan Snapshot


     
      Race 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

    President Solid R -- Solid R -- Solid R

    Senate
    Class 2 -- Solid R -- -- Mod R
    Class 3 -- -- Weak R -- --

    Governor
    (2003-2007)
    -- Strong R -- Solid D --

    House 5 GOP
    1 DEM
    5 GOP
    1 DEM
    5 GOP
    1 DEM
    4 GOP
    2 DEM
    4 GOP
    2 DEM
    CD-1 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-2 Solid R Solid R Solid R Strong R Mod R
    CD-3 Mod R Weak R Solid R Weak D Strong D
    CD-4 Strong D Weak D Strong R Mod R Solid R
    CD-5 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-6 Solid R Solid R Solid D Solid D Solid D

    BOLD - party turnover
     
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%
  •  

    Kentucky Race Tracking
    Senate (open)
    Rand Paul
    vs
    Jack Conway
    Projected Winner
    House District 3
    John Yarmuth - inc
    vs
    Todd Lally
    Projected Winner
    House District 6
    Ben Chandler - inc
    vs
    Andy Barr
    Projected Winner
    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political


    Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics


    D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report


    Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas


    David Wissing
    The Hedgehog Report


    Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball


    Richard & Tony
    The Green Papers


    Rose Institute
    Redistricting in America


    Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
    RealClearPolitics

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