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2010 Projections

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North Carolina  
 
General Information
Latest Polls and Updates

Conservative Ranking


North Carolina is the 23rd most conservative state, voting for Obama in 2008 but 6.95% more Republican than the national average.

Partisan Trend


Based on voting patterns since 1992, North Carolina is trending DEMOCRAT in presidential elections.

GOP Trend Ranking


North Carolina ranks 24th among the 50 states.
 


Senate Race
Incumbent:  Republican incumbent Richard Burr seeks a second term in 2010.  He faces no primary opposition.

GOP Candidates

  • Richard Burr - Incumbent
  • DEM Candidates

  • Elaine Marshall - North Carolina Secretary of State
  • Cal Cunningham, III - Former North Carolina State Senator
  • Malcolm Graham - North Carolina State Senator
  • Nathaniel Cooper
  • Susan Harris
  • John Hendrix
  • Kenneth Lewis
  • Marcus Williams
  • Ann Worthy
  • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Weak GOP Hold

     
    Governor's Race
    No race in 2010
     
    Competitive House Races

    District 8
    Incumbent:  Democratic incumbent Larry Kissell seeks a second term in 2010.  He faces primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Lou Huddleston
  • Darrell Day
  • Lee Cornelison
  • Harold Johnson
  • Timothy D'Annunzio
  • Hal Jordon
  • Bob Palisin
  • Thomas Sweeney
  • DEM Candidates

  • Larry Kissell - Incumbent
  • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Mod DEM Hold

     
    Other House Races
    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  G.K. Butterfield? (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
  • District 2:  Bob Etheridge (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
  • District 3:  Walter Jones, Jr.? (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)
  • District 4:  David Price (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
  • District 5:  Virginia Foxx? (R)-inc vs. Billy Kennedy (D)
  • District 6:  Howard Coble? (R)-inc vs. Sam Turner (D)
  • District 7:  Mike McIntyre (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
  • District 9:  Sue Myrick (R)-inc vs. Jeff Doctor (D)
  • District 10:  Patrick McHenry? (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)
  • District 11:  Heath Shuler? (D)-inc vs. ??? (R) - possibly competitive
  • District 12:  Melvin Watt (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
  • District 13:  Brad Miller (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
  •  
    Additional Information

    Election Timeline


  • February 26, 2010 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • May 4, 2010 - Primary elections
  • November 2, 2010 - Election day
  • Current Partisan Breakdown


     
    National Delegation
      Senators 1 GOP, 1 DEM
      Representatives 5 GOP, 8 DEM
    State Government
      Governor DEM
      Lt. Governor DEM
      State Senate - DEM control 20 GOP, 30 DEM
      State House - DEM control 52 GOP, 68 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Beverly Perdue (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2012
  • Lt. Governor:  Walter Dalton (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2012
  • Senior Senator:  Richard Burr (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2010
  • Junior Senator:  Kay Hagan (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2014
  • House District 1:  G.K. Butterfield (D) - 4th term
  • House District 2:  Bob Etheridge (D) - 7th term
  • House District 3:  Walter Jones, Jr. (R) - 8th term
  • House District 4:  David Price (D) - 11th term
  • House District 5:  Virginia Foxx (R) - 3rd term
  • House District 6:  Howard Coble (R) - 13th term
  • House District 7:  Mike McIntyre (D) - 7th term
  • House District 8:  Larry Kissell (D) - 1st term
  • House District 9:  Sue Myrick (R) - 8th term
  • House District 10:  Patrick McHenry (R) - 3rd term
  • House District 11:  Heath Shuler (D) - 2nd term
  • House District 12:  Melvin Watt (D) - 9th term
  • House District 13:  Brad Miller (D) - 4th term
  • Historical Partisan Snapshot


     
      Race 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

    President Strong R -- Strong R -- Weak D

    Senate
    Class 2 -- Mod R -- -- Mod R
    Class 3 -- -- Mod R -- --

    Governor Mod D -- Strong D -- Weak D

    House 7 GOP
    5 DEM
    7 GOP
    6 DEM
    7 GOP
    6 DEM
    6 GOP
    7 DEM
    5 GOP
    8 DEM
    CD-1 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-2 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-3 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-4 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-5 Solid R Solid R Solid R Strong R Solid R
    CD-6 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-7 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-8 Strong R Strong R Strong R Weak R Strong D
    CD-9 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-10 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-11 Strong R Strong R Strong R Mod D Solid D
    CD-12 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-13 NA Strong D Solid D Solid D Solid D

    BOLD - party turnover
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%
  •  

    North Carolina Race Tracking
    Senate
    Richard Burr - inc
    vs
    undetermined
    Preliminary
    Mod GOP Hold
     
    House District 8
    Larry Kissell - inc
    vs
    undetermined
    Preliminary
    Mod DEM Hold
     
    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political


    Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics


    D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report


    Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas


    Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball


    Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
    RealClearPolitics

    EP's Weekly Poll

    Previous Polls
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