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2010 Projections

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New Hampshire  
 
General Information
Latest Polls and Updates

Conservative Ranking


New Hampshire is the 21st least conservative state, voting 2.34% less Republican in the 2008 presidential elections than the national average.

Partisan Trend


Based on voting patterns since 1992, New Hampshire is trending DEMOCRAT in presidential elections.

GOP Trend Ranking


New Hampshire ranks 36th among the 50 states.
 


Senate Race
OPEN SEAT:  Republican incumbent Judd Gregg is retiring.  He is not seeking a 5th term in 2010.

GOP Candidates

  • Kelly Ayotte - Former New Hampshire Attorney General
  • Tom Alciere - Former New Hampshire State Representative
  • Jim Bender
  • William Binnie
  • Ovide Lamontagne
  • DEM Candidates

  • Paul Hodes - U.S. Representative from New Hampshire
  • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Weak GOP Hold

     
    Governor's Race
    Incumbent:  Democratic incumbent John Lynch seeks a 4th term in 2010.  He faces no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Dan Itse - New Hampshire State
  • Jack Kimball
  • DEM Candidates

  • John Lynch - Incumbent
  • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Solid DEM Hold

     
    Competitive House Races

    District 1
    Incumbent:  Democratic incumbent Carol Shea-Porter seeks a third term in 2010.  She currently faces no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Frank Guinta - Mayor of Manchester
  • Richard Ashooh
  • Robert Bestani
  • Mike Castaldo
  • Furgus Cullen
  • Peter Bearse
  • DEM Candidates

  • Carol Shea-Porter - Incumbent
  • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Weak DEM Hold

     

    District 2
    OPEN SEAT:  Three-term Democrat incumbent Paul Hodes is running for the Senate.  He is not seeking re-election in 2010.

    GOP Candidates

  • Charles Bass - Former U.S. Representative from New Hampshire
  • Robert Giuda - Former New Hampshire State Representative
  • Jennifer Horn
  • DEM Candidates

  • John DeJoie - New Hampshire State Representative
  • Ann McLane Kuster
  • Katrina Swett
  • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Weak DEM Hold

     
    Additional Information

    Election Timeline


  • June 11, 2010 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • September 14, 2010 - Primary elections
  • November 2, 2010 - Election day
  • Current Partisan Breakdown


     
    National Delegation
      Senators 1 GOP, 1 DEM
      Representatives 2 DEM
    State Government
      Governor DEM
      State Senate - DEM control 10 GOP, 14 DEM
      State House - DEM control 175 GOP, 225 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  John Lynch (D) - 3rd term, up for re-election in 2010
  • Senior Senator:  Judd Gregg (R) - 4th term, not seeking re-election in 2010
  • Junior Senator:  Jeanne Shaheen (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2014
  • House District 1:  Carol Shea-Porter (D) - 1st term
  • House District 2:  Paul Hodes (D) - 1st term
  • Historical Partisan Snapshot


     
      Race 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

    President Weak R -- Weak D -- Mod D

    Senate
    Class 2 -- Weak R -- -- Mod D
    Class 3 -- -- Solid R -- --

    Governor Mod D Solid R Weak D Solid D Solid D

    House 2 GOP 2 GOP 2 GOP 2 DEM 2 DEM
    CD-1 Mod R Solid R Solid R Weak D Mod D
    CD-2 Solid R Solid R Solid R Mod D Solid D

    BOLD - party turnover
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%
  •  

    New Hampshire Race Tracking
    Senate
    undetermined
    vs
    undetermined
    Preliminary
    Weak GOP Hold
     
    Governor
    John Lynch - inc
    vs
    undetermined
    Preliminary
    Solid DEM Hold
     
    House District 1
    Carol Shea-Porter - inc
    vs
    undetermined
    Preliminary
    Weak DEM Hold
     
    House District 2 (open)
    undetermined
    vs
    undetermined
    Preliminary
    Weak DEM Hold
     
    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political


    Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics


    D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report


    Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas


    Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball


    Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
    RealClearPolitics

    EP's Weekly Poll

    Previous Polls
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