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2010 Projections

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New Jersey  
 
General Information
Latest Polls and Updates

Conservative Ranking


New Jersey is the 15th least conservative state, voting 8.26% less Republican in the 2008 presidential elections than the national average.

Partisan Trend


Based on voting patterns since 1992, New Jersey is trending DEMOCRAT in presidential elections.

GOP Trend Ranking


New Jersey ranks 43th among the 50 states.
 


Senate Race
No race in 2010
 
Governor's Race
No race in 2010
 
Competitive House Races

District 3
Incumbent:  Democratic incumbent John Adler seeks a second term in 2010.  He faces only minor primary opposition.

GOP Candidates

  • Scott Rudder - New Jersey State Assemblyman
  • Brian Rumpf - New Jersey State Assemblyman
  • John Culbertson
  • Virginia Haines
  • Maurice Hill
  • Jack Kelly
  • Gerry Little
  • Justin Murphy
  • Joseph Rullo
  • Jon Runyan
  • Joseph Vicari
  • DEM Candidates

  • John Adler - Incumbent
  • Barry Bendar
  • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Mod DEM Hold

     
    Other House Races
    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Robert Andrews (D)  (currently unopposed)
  • District 2:  Frank LoBiondo (R)-inc vs. Gerald Sakura (D)
  • District 4:  Christopher Smith? (R)-inc vs. Howard Kleinhendler (D)
  • District 5:  Scott Garrett (R)-inc vs. Dennis Shulman (D)
  • District 6:  Frank Pallone, Jr. (D)-inc  (currently unopposed)
  • District 7:  Leonard Lance (R)-inc vs. Bruce Baker (R)
  • District 8:  Bill Pascrell, Jr. (D)-inc vs. Danielle Staub (R)
  • District 9:  Steven Rothman(D)-inc  (currently unopposed)
  • District 10:  Donald Payne (D)-inc  (currently unopposed)
  • District 11:  Rodney Frelinghuysen (R)-inc  (currently unopposed)
  • District 12:  Rush Holt? (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
  • District 13:  Albio Sires (D)  (currently unopposed)
  •  
    Additional Information

    Election Timeline


  • April 12, 2010 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • June 8, 2010 - Primary elections
  • November 2, 2010 - Election day
  • Current Partisan Breakdown


     
    National Delegation
      Senators 2 DEM
      Representatives 5 GOP, 8 DEM
    State Government
      Governor GOP
      State Senate - DEM control 17 GOP, 23 DEM
      State House - DEM control 33 GOP, 47 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Chris Christie (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2013
  • Senior Senator:  Frank Lautenberg (D) - 4th term, up for re-election in 2014
  • Junior Senator:  Robert Menendez (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2012
  • House District 1:  Robert Andrews (D) - 10th term
  • House District 2:  Frank LoBiondo (R) - 8th term
  • House District 3:  John Adler (D) - 1st term
  • House District 4:  Christopher Smith (R) - 15th term
  • House District 5:  Scott Garrett (R) - 4th term
  • House District 6:  Frank Pallone, Jr. (D) - 12th term
  • House District 7:  Leonard Lance (R) - 1st term
  • House District 8:  Bill Pascrell, Jr. (D) - 7th term
  • House District 9:  Steven Rothman(D) - 7th term
  • House District 10:  Donald Payne (D) - 11th term
  • House District 11:  Rodney Frelinghuysen (R) - 8th term
  • House District 12:  Rush Holt (D) - 6th term
  • House District 13:  Albio Sires (D) - 2nd term
  • Historical Partisan Snapshot


     
      Race 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

    President Solid D -- Mod D -- Solid D

    Senate
    Class 1 Weak D -- -- Mod D --
    Class 2 -- Strong D -- -- Strong D

    Governor
    (2001-2009)
    Mod D -- Strong D -- Weak R

    House 6 GOP
    7 DEM
    6 GOP
    7 DEM
    6 GOP
    7 DEM
    6 GOP
    7 DEM
    5 GOP
    8 DEM
    CD-1 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-2 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-3 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Weak D
    CD-4 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-5 Solid R Solid R Solid R Strong R Strong R
    CD-6 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-7 Weak R Solid R Solid R Weak R Mod R
    CD-8 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-9 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-10 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-11 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-12 Weak D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-13 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D

    BOLD - party turnover
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%
  •  

    New Jersey Race Tracking
    House District 3
    John Adler - inc
    vs
    undetermined
    Preliminary
    Mod DEM Hold
     
    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political


    Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics


    D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report


    Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas


    Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball


    Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
    RealClearPolitics

    EP's Weekly Poll

    Previous Polls
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