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2010 Projections

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Nevada  
 
General Information
Latest Polls and Updates

Conservative Ranking


Nevada is the 18th least conservative state, voting 5.23% less Republican in the 2008 presidential elections than the national average.

Partisan Trend


Based on voting patterns since 1992, Nevada is trending DEMOCRAT in presidential elections.

GOP Trend Ranking


Nevada ranks 44th among the 50 states.
 


Senate Race
Incumbent:  Democratic incumbent Harry Reid seeks a 5th term in 2010.  He faces no primary opposition.

GOP Candidates

  • Sue Lowden - Nevada State GOP Party Chairwoman
  • Danny Tarkanian
  • Mark Amodei - Nevada State Senator
  • Sharron Angle - Former Nevada State Assemblywoman
  • John Chachas
  • Greg Dagani
  • Chuck Flume
  • Chuck Kozak
  • Bill Parson
  • Mike Wiley
  • DEM Candidates

  • Harry Reid - Incumbent
  • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Weak GOP Gain

     
    Governor's Race
    Incumbent:  Republican incumbent Jim Gibbons seeks a second term in 2010.  He faces primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Jim Gibbons - Incumbent
  • Michael Montandon - Former North Las Vegas Mayor
  • Brian Sandoval - Former Nevada State Attorney General
  • DEM Candidates

  • Rory Reid - Clark County Commissioner
  • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Weak GOP Gain

     
    Competitive House Races

    District 3
    Incumbent:  Democratic incumbent Dina Titus seeks a second term in 2010.  She faces no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Joseph Heck - Nevada State Senator
  • Robert Lauer
  • Edward Stafford
  • Eleanor Ahern
  • DEM Candidates

  • Dina Titus - Incumbent
  • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Weak DEM Hold

     
    Other House Races
    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Shelley Berkley (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
  • District 2:  Dean Heller (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)
  •  
    Additional Information

    Election Timeline


  • March 12, 2010 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • June 8, 2010 - Primary elections
  • November 2, 2010 - Election day
  • Current Partisan Breakdown


     
    National Delegation
      Senators 1 GOP, 1 DEM
      Representatives 1 GOP, 2 DEM
    State Government
      Governor GOP
      Lt. Governor - tied to Governor GOP
      State Senate - DEM control 9 GOP, 12 DEM
      State House - DEM control 14 GOP, 28 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Jim Gibbons (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2010
  • Lt. Governor:  Brian Krolicki (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2010
  • Senior Senator:  Harry Reid (D) - 4th term, up for re-election in 2010
  • Junior Senator:  John Ensign (R) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2012
  • House District 1:  Shelley Berkley (D) - 6th term
  • House District 2:  Dean Heller (R) - 2nd term
  • House District 3:  Dina Titus (D) - 1st term
  • Historical Partisan Snapshot


     
      Race 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

    President Weak R -- Weak R -- Strong D

    Senate
    Class 1 Solid R -- -- Strong R --
    Class 3 -- -- Solid D -- --

    Governor -- Solid R -- Weak R --

    House 1 GOP
    1 DEM
    2 GOP
    1 DEM
    2 GOP
    1 DEM
    2 GOP
    1 DEM
    1 GOP
    2 DEM
    CD-1 Mod D Mod D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-2 Solid R Solid R Solid R Mod R Strong R
    CD-3 NA Solid R Solid R Weak R Mod D

    BOLD - party turnover
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%
  •  

    Nevada Race Tracking
    Senate
    Harry Reid - inc
    vs
    undetermined
    Preliminary
    Weak GOP Gain
     
    Governor
    Jim Gibbons - inc
    vs
    undetermined
    Preliminary
    Weak GOP Hold
     
    House District 3
    Dina Titus - inc
    vs
    undetermined
    Preliminary
    Weak DEM Hold
     
    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political


    Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics


    D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report


    Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas


    Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball


    Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
    RealClearPolitics

    EP's Weekly Poll

    Previous Polls
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