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2012 Projections

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New York  
 
General Information

Election Timeline


  • July 10, 2010 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • September 14, 2010 - Primary elections
  • November 2, 2010 - Election day
  • Latest Polls and Updates


    Conservative Ranking


    New York is the 4th least conservative state, voting 19.58% less Republican in the 2008 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, New York is trending DEMOCRAT in presidential elections.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    New York ranks 40th among the 50 states.
     

    Senate Race
    Incumbent:  Democratic incumbent Charles Schumer seeks a third term in 2010.  He faced no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Jay Townsend  
  • Gary Berntsen
  • DEM Candidates

  • Charles Schumer - Incumbent  
  • Party nominee -

    Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

     
    Senate Race (special)
    Interim:  Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand seeks election for the first time in 2010.  She faced primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Joseph DioGuardi  
  • Bruce Blakeman
  • David Malpass
  • DEM Candidates

  • Kirsten Gillibrand - Interim Senator  
  • Gail Goode
  • Party nominee -

    Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

     
    Governor's Race
    OPEN SEAT:  Interim Democratic Governor David Paterson decided against running for election in 2010.

    GOP Candidates

  • Carl Paladino  
  • Rick Lazio - Former U.S. Representative from New York
  • DEM Candidates

  • Andrew Cuomo - Attorney General of New York  
  • Jimmy McMillan
  • Party nominee -

    Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

     
    Competitive House Races
  • District 22:  Maurice Hinchey (D)-inc vs. George Phillips (R)

  • District 1 (map)
    Incumbent:  Democratic incumbent Tim Bishop seeks a 5th term in 2010.  He faced no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Randy Altschuler  
  • George Demos
  • Christopher Cox
  • DEM Candidates

  • Tim Bishop - Incumbent  
  • Party nominee -

    Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

     

    District 13 (map)
    Incumbent:  Democratic incumbent Mike McMahon seeks a 2nd term in 2010.  He faced no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Michael Grimm  
  • Michael Allegretti
  • DEM Candidates

  • Mike McMahon - Incumbent  
  • Party nominee -

    Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

     

    District 19 (map)
    Incumbent:  Democratic incumbent John Hall seeks a 3rd term in 2010.  He faced no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Nan Hayworth  
  • Neil Anthony Di Carlo
  • DEM Candidates

  • John Hall - Incumbent  
  • Party nominee -

    Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

     

    District 20 (map)
    Incumbent:  Democratic incumbent Scott Murphy seeks a 2nd term in 2010.  He faced no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Christopher Gibson  
  • DEM Candidates

  • Scott Murphy - Incumbent  
  • Party nominee -

    Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

     

    District 22 (map)
    Incumbent:  Democratic incumbent Maurice Hinchey seeks a 10th term in 2010.

    GOP Candidates

  • George Phillips  
  • DEM Candidates

  • Maurice Hinchey - Incumbent  
  • Party nominee -

    Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

     

    District 23 (map)
    Incumbent:  Democratic incumbent Bill Owens seeks a first full term in 2010.  He faced no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Matthew Doheny  
  • Douglas Hoffman
  • DEM Candidates

  • Bill Owens - Incumbent  
  • Party nominee -

    Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

     

    District 24 (map)
    Incumbent:  Democratic incumbent Michael Arcuri seeks a 3rd term in 2010.  He faced no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Richard Hanna  
  • DEM Candidates

  • Michael Arcuri - Incumbent  
  • Party nominee -

    Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

     

    District 25 (map)
    Incumbent:  Democratic incumbent Dan Maffei seeks re-election for the first time in 2010.  He faced no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Ann Marie Buerkle  
  • DEM Candidates

  • Dan Maffei - Incumbent  
  • Party nominee -

    Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

     

    District 29 (map)
    OPEN SEAT:  Democratic incumbent Eric Massa resigned effective March 8, 2010 during his first term.

    GOP Candidates

  • Thomas Reed - Mayor of Corning  
  • DEM Candidates

  • Matthew Zeller  
  • Party nominee -

    Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

     
    Other House Races
    Projected winner listed first
  • District 2:  Steve Israel (D)-inc vs. John Gomez (R)
  • District 3:  Peter King (R)-inc vs. Howard Kudler (D)
  • District 4:  Carolyn McCarthy (D)-inc vs. Francis Becker (R)
  • District 5:  Gary Ackerman (D)-inc vs. James Milano (R)
  • District 6:  Gregory Meeks (D)-inc vs. Asher Taub (R)
  • District 7:  Joseph Crowley (D)-inc vs. Ken Reynolds (R)
  • District 8:  Jerrold Nadler (D)-inc vs. Susan Kone (R)
  • District 9:  Anthony Weiner (D)-inc vs. Robert Turner (R)
  • District 10:  Edolphus Towns (D)-inc vs. Diana Muniz (R)
  • District 11:  Yvette Clarke (D)-inc vs. Hugh Carr (R)
  • District 12:  Nydia Velazquez (D)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 14:  Carolyn Maloney (D)-inc vs. David Brumberg (R)
  • District 15:  Charles Rangel (D)-inc vs. Michel Faulkner (R)
  • District 16:  Jose Serrano (D)-inc vs. Frank Valle (R)
  • District 17:  Eliot Engel (D)-inc vs. York Kleinhandler (R)
  • District 18:  Nita Lowey (D)-inc vs. James Russell (R)
  • District 21:  Paul Tonko (D)-inc vs. Theodore Danz, Jr. (R)
  • District 26:  Christopher Lee (R)-inc vs. Philip Fedele (R)
  • District 27:  Brian Higgins (D)-inc vs. Leonard Roberto (R)
  • District 28:  Louise Slaughter (D)-inc vs. Jill Rowland (R)
  •  
    Additional Information
    Current Partisan Breakdown
     
    National Delegation
      Senators 2 DEM
      Representatives 2 GOP, 26 DEM, 1 vacant
    State Government
      Governor DEM
      Lt. Governor - tied to Governor vacant
      State Senate - DEM control 30 GOP, 32 DEM
      State Assembly - DEM control 40 GOP, 110 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  David Paterson (D) - 1st term (partial), not seeking re-election in 2010
  • Lt. Governor:  vacant - next election in 2010
  • Senior Senator:  Charles Schumer (D) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2010
  • Junior Senator:  Kirsten Gillibrand (D) - 1st term (partial), up for re-election in 2010
  • House District 1:  Tim Bishop (D) - 4th term
  • House District 2:  Steve Israel (D) - 5th term
  • House District 3:  Peter King (R) - 9th term
  • House District 4:  Carolyn McCarthy (D) - 7th term
  • House District 5:  Gary Ackerman (D) - 14th term
  • House District 6:  Gregory Meeks (D) - 7th term
  • House District 7:  Joseph Crowley (D) - 6th term
  • House District 8:  Jerrold Nadler (D) - 10th term
  • House District 9:  Anthony Weiner (D) - 6th term
  • House District 10:  Edolphus Towns (D) - 14th term
  • House District 11:  Yvette Clark (D) - 2nd term
  • House District 12:  Nydia Velazquez (D) - 9th term
  • House District 13:  Mike McMahon (D) - 1st term
  • House District 14:  Carolyn Maloney (D) - 9th term
  • House District 15:  Charles Rangel (D) - 20th term
  • House District 16:  Jose Serrano (D) - 11th term
  • House District 17:  Eliot Engel (D) - 11th term
  • House District 18:  Nita Lowey (D) - 11th term
  • House District 19:  John Hall (D) - 2nd term
  • House District 20:  Scott Murphy (D) - 1st term (partial)
  • House District 21:  Paul Tonko (D) - 1st term
  • House District 22:  Maurice Hinchey (D) - 9th term
  • House District 23:  Bill Owens (D) - 1st term (partial)
  • House District 24:  Michael Arcuri (D) - 2nd term
  • House District 25:  Dan Maffei (D) - 1st term
  • House District 26:  Christopher Lee (R) - 1st term
  • House District 27:  Brian Higgins (D) - 3rd term
  • House District 28:  Louise Slaughter (D) - 12th term
  • House District 29:  vacant
         Eric Massa (D) resigned effective March 8, 2010 during his 1st term
  • Historical Partisan Snapshot


     
      Race 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

    President Solid D -- Solid D -- Solid D

    Senate
    Class 1 Strong D -- -- Solid D --
    Class 3 -- -- Solid D -- --

    Governor -- Strong R -- Solid D --

    House 11 GOP
    20 DEM
    10 GOP
    19 DEM
    9 GOP
    20 DEM
    6 GOP
    23 DEM
    3 GOP
    26 DEM
    CD-1 Solid R Weak D Strong D Solid D Solid D
    CD-2 Strong D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-3 Solid R Solid R Solid R Strong R Solid R
    CD-4 Solid D Strong D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-5 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-6 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-7 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-8 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-9 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-10 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-11 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-12 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-13 Solid R Solid R Solid R Strong R Solid D
    CD-14 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-15 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-16 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-17 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-18 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-19 Solid D Solid R Solid R Weak D Solid D
    CD-20 Solid R Solid R Solid R Mod D Solid D
    CD-21 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-22 Solid R Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-23 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-24 Solid R Solid R Solid R Mod D Weak D
    CD-25 Solid R Solid R Solid R Weak R Strong D
    CD-26 Solid D Solid R Strong R Weak R Strong R
    CD-27 Solid R Solid R Weak D Solid D Solid D
    CD-28 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-29 Solid D Solid R Strong R Weak R Weak D
    CD-30 Solid R NA NA NA NA
    CD-31 Solid R NA NA NA NA

    BOLD - party turnover
    Party changes not bolded resulted from redistricting before the 2002 election.
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%
  •  

    New York Race Tracking
    Senate
    Charles Schumer - inc
    vs
    Jay Townsend
    Projected Winner
    Senate (special)
    Kirsten Gillibrand - interim
    vs
    Joseph DioGuardi
    Projected Winner
    Governor (open)
    Andrew Cuomo
    vs
    Carl Paladino
    Projected Winner
    House District 1
    Tim Bishop - inc
    vs
    Randy Altschuler
    Projected Winner
    House District 13
    Mike McMahon - inc
    vs
    Michael Grimm
    Projected Winner
    House District 19
    John Hall - inc
    vs
    Nan Hayworth
    Projected Winner
    House District 20
    Scott Murphy - inc
    vs
    Christopher Gibson
    Projected Winner
    House District 22
    Maurice Hinchey - inc
    vs
    George Phillips
    Projected Winner
    House District 23
    Bill Owens - inc
    vs
    Matthew Doheny
    Projected Winner
    House District 24
    Michael Arcuri - inc
    vs
    Richard Hanna
    Projected Winner
    House District 25
    Dan Maffei - inc
    vs
    Ann Marie Buerkle
    Projected Winner
    House District 29 (open)
    Matthew Zeller
    vs
    Thomas Reed
    Projected Winner
    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political


    Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics


    D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report


    Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas


    David Wissing
    The Hedgehog Report


    Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball


    Richard & Tony
    The Green Papers


    Rose Institute
    Redistricting in America


    Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
    RealClearPolitics

    2010 Projections, State-by-State

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