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2010 Projections

 Senate
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New York  
 
General Information
Latest Polls and Updates

Conservative Ranking

New York is the 4th least conservative state, voting 19.58% less Republican in the 2008 presidential elections than the national average.

Partisan Trend

Based on voting patterns since 1992, New York is trending DEMOCRAT in presidential elections.

GOP Trend Ranking

New York ranks 40th among the 50 states.
 


Senate Race
Incumbent:  Democratic incumbent Charles Schumer seeks a third term in 2010.  He faces minor primary opposition.

GOP Candidates

  • Martin Chicon

    • DEM Candidates

  • Charles Schumer - Incumbent
  • Randy Credico
  • Lumies Huff

    • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Solid DEM Hold

     
    Senate Race (special)
    Interim:  Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand seeks election for the first time in 2010.  She faces primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Bruce Blakeman

    • DEM Candidates

  • Kirsten Gillibrand - Interim Senator
  • Scott Noreri
  • Jonathan Tasini

    • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Strong DEM Hold

     
    Governor's Race
    Interim:  Democrat David Paterson seeks election for the first time in 2010.  He faces primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Rick Lazio - Former U.S. Representative from New York
  • Ken Goewey

    • DEM Candidates

  • David Paterson - Interim Governor
  • Steve Levy - Suffolk County Executive

    • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Strong DEM Hold

     
    Competitive House Races

    District 1
    Incumbent:  Democratic incumbent Tim Bishop seeks a 5th term in 2010.  He currently faces no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Randy Altschuler
  • George Demos
  • Chris Cox

    • DEM Candidates

  • Tim Bishop - Incumbent

    • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Weak DEM Hold

     

    District 13
    Incumbent:  Democratic incumbent Mike McMahon seeks a 2nd term in 2010.  He currently faces no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Michael Allegretti
  • Michael Grimm

    • DEM Candidates

  • Mike McMahon - Incumbent

    • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Mod DEM Hold

     

    District 19
    Incumbent:  Democratic incumbent John Hall seeks a 3rd term in 2010.  He currently faces no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • David McFadden - Former Mayor of Tuxedo Park
  • Thomas DeChiaro
  • Nan Hayworth
  • John MacEnroe

    • DEM Candidates

  • John Hall - Incumbent

    • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Weak DEM Hold

     

    District 20
    Incumbent:  Democratic incumbent Scott Murphy seeks a 2nd term in 2010.  He currently faces no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Dan Stec - Queensbury Supervisor
  • David Harper
  • Patrick Ziegler

    • DEM Candidates

  • Scott Murphy - Incumbent

    • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Mod DEM Hold

     

    District 23
    Incumbent:  Democratic incumbent Bill Owens seeks a first full term in 2010.  He currently faces no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Douglas Hoffman
  • William Barclay - New York State Assemblyman
  • Matthew Doheny

    • DEM Candidates

  • Bill Owens - Incumbent

    • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Weak DEM Hold

     

    District 24
    Incumbent:  Democratic incumbent Michael Arcuri seeks a 3rd term in 2010.  He currently faces no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Ernest Logan
  • Richard Hanna

    • DEM Candidates

  • Michael Arcuri - Incumbent

    • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Mod DEM Hold

     

    District 29
    OPEN SEAT:  Democratic incumbent Eric Massa is retiring at the end of his first term.  He is not seeking re-election in 2010.

    GOP Candidates

  • Tom Reed

    • DEM Candidates

  • none at present

    • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Weak GOP Gain

     
    Other House Races
    Projected winner listed first
  • District 2:  Steve Israel (D)-inc vs. Anthony Tolda (R)
  • District 3:  Peter King (R)-inc  (currently unopposed)
  • District 4:  Carolyn McCarthy (D)-inc vs. Frank Scaturro (R)
  • District 5:  Gary Ackerman (D)-inc  (currently unopposed)
  • District 6:  Gregory Meeks (D)-inc  (currently unopposed)
  • District 7:  Joseph Crowley (D)-inc  (currently unopposed)
  • District 8:  Jerrold Nadler (D)-inc  (currently unopposed)
  • District 9:  Anthony Weiner (D)-inc  (currently unopposed)
  • District 10:  Edolphus Towns? (D)-inc  (currently unopposed)
  • District 11:  Yvette Clarke (D)-inc  (currently unopposed)
  • District 12:  Nydia Velazquez? (D)-inc  (currently unopposed)
  • District 14:  Carolyn Maloney (D)-inc  (currently unopposed)
  • District 15:  Charles Rangel? (D)-inc vs. Michel Faulkner (R)
  • District 16:  Jose Serrano (D)-inc  (currently unopposed)
  • District 17:  Eliot Engel (D)-inc  (currently unopposed)
  • District 18:  Nita Lowey (D)-inc  (currently unopposed)
  • District 21:  Paul Tonko (D)-inc  (currently unopposed)
  • District 22:  Maurice Hinchey (D)-inc vs. George Phillips (R)
  • District 25:  Dan Maffei (D)-inc vs. ??? (R) - possibly competitive
  • District 26:  Christopher Lee (R)-inc  (currently unopposed)
  • District 27:  Brian Higgins (D)-inc  (currently unopposed)
  • District 28:  Louise Slaughter (D)-inc  (currently unopposed)
    		•
     
    Additional Information

    Election Timeline

  • July 10, 2010 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • September 14, 2010 - Primary elections
  • November 2, 2010 - Election day

    • Current Partisan Breakdown
     
    National Delegation
      Senators 2 DEM
      Representatives 2 GOP, 27 DEM
    State Government
      Governor DEM
      Lt. Governor - tied to Governor vacant
      State Senate - DEM control 30 GOP, 32 DEM
      State Assembly - DEM control 40 GOP, 110 DEM

    Current Office Holders

  • Governor:  David Paterson (D) - 1st term (partial), up for re-election in 2010
  • Lt. Governor:  vacant - next election in 2010
  • Senior Senator:  Charles Schumer (D) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2010
  • Junior Senator:  Kirsten Gillibrand (D) - 1st term (partial), up for re-election in 2010
  • House District 1:  Tim Bishop (D) - 4th term
  • House District 2:  Steve Israel (D) - 5th term
  • House District 3:  Peter King (R) - 9th term (might run for Senate)
  • House District 4:  Carolyn McCarthy (D) - 7th term
  • House District 5:  Gary Ackerman (D) - 14th term
  • House District 6:  Gregory Meeks (D) - 7th term
  • House District 7:  Joseph Crowley (D) - 6th term
  • House District 8:  Jerrold Nadler (D) - 10th term
  • House District 9:  Anthony Weiner (D) - 6th term
  • House District 10:  Edolphus Towns (D) - 14th term
  • House District 11:  Yvette Clark (D) - 2nd term
  • House District 12:  Nydia Velazquez (D) - 9th term
  • House District 13:  Mike McMahon (D) - 1st term
  • House District 14:  Carolyn Maloney (D) - 9th term
  • House District 15:  Charles Rangel (D) - 20th term (might retire)
  • House District 16:  Jose Serrano (D) - 11th term
  • House District 17:  Eliot Engel (D) - 11th term
  • House District 18:  Nita Lowey (D) - 11th term (might retire)
  • House District 19:  John Hall (D) - 2nd term
  • House District 20:  Scott Murphy (D) - 1st term (partial)
  • House District 21:  Paul Tonko (D) - 1st term
  • House District 22:  Maurice Hinchey (D) - 9th term
  • House District 23:  Bill Owens (D) - 1st term (partial)
  • House District 24:  Michael Arcuri (D) - 2nd term
  • House District 25:  Dan Maffei (D) - 1st term
  • House District 26:  Christopher Lee (R) - 1st term
  • House District 27:  Brian Higgins (D) - 3rd term
  • House District 28:  Louise Slaughter (D) - 12th term (might retire)
  • House District 29:  Eric Massa (D) - 1st term

    • Historical Partisan Snapshot
     
      Race 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
    President Solid D -- Solid D -- Solid D
    Senate
    Class 1 Strong D -- -- Solid D --
    Class 3 -- -- Solid D -- --
    Governor -- Strong R -- Solid D --
    House 11 GOP
    20 DEM    		 10 GOP
    19 DEM    		 9 GOP
    20 DEM    		 6 GOP
    23 DEM    		 3 GOP
    26 DEM
    CD-1 Solid R Weak D Strong D Solid D Solid D
    CD-2 Strong D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-3 Solid R Solid R Solid R Strong R Solid R
    CD-4 Solid D Strong D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-5 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-6 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-7 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-8 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-9 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-10 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-11 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-12 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-13 Solid R Solid R Solid R Strong R Solid D
    CD-14 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-15 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-16 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-17 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-18 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-19 Solid D Solid R Solid R Weak D Solid D
    CD-20 Solid R Solid R Solid R Mod D Solid D
    CD-21 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-22 Solid R Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-23 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-24 Solid R Solid R Solid R Mod D Weak D
    CD-25 Solid R Solid R Solid R Weak R Strong D
    CD-26 Solid D Solid R Strong R Weak R Strong R
    CD-27 Solid R Solid R Weak D Solid D Solid D
    CD-28 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-29 Solid D Solid R Strong R Weak R Weak D
    CD-30 Solid R NA NA NA NA
    CD-31 Solid R NA NA NA NA
    BOLD - party turnover
    Party changes not bolded resulted from redistricting before the 2002 election.
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%
    •
     

    New York Race Tracking
    Senate
    Charles Schumer - inc
    vs
    undetermined
    Preliminary
    Solid DEM Hold
     
    Senate (special)
    Kirsten Gillibrand - interim
    vs
    undetermined
    Preliminary
    Strong DEM Hold
     
    Governor
    David Paterson - interim
    vs
    undetermined
    Preliminary
    Strong DEM Hold
     
    House District 1
    Tim Bishop - inc
    vs
    undetermined
    Preliminary
    Weak DEM Hold
     
    House District 13
    Mike McMahon - inc
    vs
    undetermined
    Preliminary
    Mod DEM Hold
     
    House District 19
    John Hall - inc
    vs
    undetermined
    Preliminary
    Weak DEM Hold
     
    House District 20
    Scott Murphy - inc
    vs
    undetermined
    Preliminary
    Mod DEM Hold
     
    House District 23
    Bill Owens - inc
    vs
    undetermined
    Preliminary
    Weak DEM Hold
     
    House District 24
    Michael Arcuri - inc
    vs
    undetermined
    Preliminary
    Mod DEM Hold
     
    House District 29 (open)
    undetermined
    vs
    undetermined
    Preliminary
    Weak GOP Gain
     
    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political

     Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics

     D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report

     Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas

     Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball

     Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
    RealClearPolitics
    EP's Weekly Poll

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