Home  Blog  Election Polls  President 2012  Senate 2012  House 2012  Governors 2012  GOP Primaries 2012  Redistricting 2012  Formulas  Results  About me


 

 
         
    "The Blogging Caesar at Election Projection is one of the web's best prognosticators" - Hugh Hewitt

2012 Projections

President
Senate
House
Governors



Election Projection cannot screen all advertisements appearing here.  Therefore, I do not necessarily endorse the products and/or services shown.



 
Ohio  
 
General Information

Election Timeline


  • February 18, 2010 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • May 4, 2010 - Primary elections
  • November 2, 2010 - Election day
  • Latest Polls and Updates


    Conservative Ranking


    Ohio is the 26th most conservative state, voting for Obama in 2008 but 2.69% more Republican than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Ohio is trending DEMOCRAT in presidential elections.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    Ohio ranks 27th among the 50 states.
     

    Senate Race
    OPEN SEAT:  Two-term Republican incumbent George Voinovich is retiring.  He is not running for re-election in 2010.

    GOP Candidates

  • Rob Portman - Former U.S. Representative from Ohio  
  • DEM Candidates

  • Lee Fisher - Ohio Lt. Governor  
  • Jennifer Brunner - Ohio Secretary of State
  • Party nominee -

    Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

     
    Governor's Race
    Incumbent:  Democratic incumbent Ted Strickland seeks a second term in 2010.  He faced no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • John Kasich - Former U.S. Representative from Ohio  
  • DEM Candidates

  • Ted Strickland - Incumbent  
  • Party nominee -

    Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

     
    Competitive House Races

    District 1 (map)
    Incumbent:  Democratic incumbent Steve Driehaus seeks a 2nd term in 2010.  He faced only minor primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Steve Chabot - Former U.S. Representative from Ohio  
  • DEM Candidates

  • Steve Driehaus - Incumbent  
  • Eric Wilson
  • Party nominee -

    Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

     

    District 6 (map)
    Incumbent:  Democratic incumbent Charlie Wilson seeks a 3rd term in 2010.

    GOP Candidates

  • Bill Johnson  
  • DEM Candidates

  • Charlie Wilson - Incumbent  
  • Party nominee -

    Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

     

    District 13 (map)
    Incumbent:  Democrat incumbent Betty Sue Sutton seeks a 3rd term in 2010.  She faced primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Thomas Ganley  
  • James Brihan
  • William Haney
  • James Hrubik, Sr.
  • Jason Meade
  • Todd Sharkey
  • DEM Candidates

  • Betty Sue Sutton - Incumbent  
  • Justin Paul Wooden
  • Party nominee -

    Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

     

    District 15 (map)
    Incumbent:  Democrat incumbent Mary Jo Kilroy seeks a 2nd term in 2010.  She faced no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Steve Stivers - Former Ohio State Senator  
  • John Adams
  • Ralph Applegate
  • DEM Candidates

  • Mary Jo Kilroy - Incumbent  
  • Party nominee -

    Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

     

    District 16 (map)
    Incumbent:  Democratic incumbent John Boccieri seeks a 2nd term in 2010.  He faced no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Jim Renacci  
  • Matt Miller - Ashland County Commissioner
  • Paul Schiffer
  • Herbert Smith
  • DEM Candidates

  • John Boccieri - Incumbent  
  • Party nominee -

    Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

     

    District 18 (map)
    Incumbent:  Democratic incumbent Zack Space seeks a 2nd term in 2010.  He faced no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Bob Gibbs - Ohio State Senator  
  • Beau Bromberg
  • Fred Dailey
  • Dave Daubenmire
  • Ron Hood - Former Ohio State Representative
  • Hombre Michael Liggett
  • Michael Royer
  • Jeanette Moll
  • DEM Candidates

  • Zack Space - Incumbent  
  • Party nominee -

    Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

     
    Other House Races
    Projected winner listed first
  • District 2:  Jean Schmidt (R)-inc vs. Surya Yalamanchili (D) - possibly competitive
  • District 3:  Mike Turner (R)-inc vs. Mark MacNealey (D)
  • District 4:  Jim Jordan (R)-inc vs. Doug Litt (D)
  • District 5:  Bob Latta (R)-inc vs. Caleb Finkenbiner (D)
  • District 7:  Steve Austria (R)-inc vs. Bill Conner (D)
  • District 8:  John Boehner (R)-inc vs. Justin Coussoule (D)
  • District 9:  Marcy Kaptur (D)-inc vs. Rich Iott (R)
  • District 10:  Dennis Kucinich (D)-inc vs. Peter Corrigan (R)
  • District 11:  Marcia Fudge (D)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 12:  Patrick Tiberi (R)-inc vs. Paula Brooks (D) - possibly competitive
  • District 14:  Steven LaTourette (R)-inc vs. Bill O'Neill (D)
  • District 17:  Tim Ryan (D)-inc  Jim Graham (R)
  •  
    Additional Information
    Current Partisan Breakdown
     
    National Delegation
      Senators 1 GOP, 1 DEM
      Representatives 8 GOP, 10 DEM
    State Government
      Governor DEM
      Lt. Governor - tied to Governor DEM
      State Senate - GOP control 21 GOP, 12 DEM
      State House - DEM control 46 GOP, 53 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Ted Strickland (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2010
  • Lt. Governor:  Lee Fisher (D) - 1st term, tied to Governor (running for Senate)
  • Senior Senator:  George Voinovich (R) - 2nd term, not seeking re-election in 2010
  • Junior Senator:  Sherrod Brown (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2012
  • House District 1:  Steve Driehaus (D) - 1st term
  • House District 2:  Jean Schmidt (R) - 3rd term
  • House District 3:  Mike Turner (R) - 4th term
  • House District 4:  Jim Jordan (R) - 2nd term
  • House District 5:  Bob Latta (R) - 2nd term
  • House District 6:  Charles Wilson (D) - 2nd term
  • House District 7:  Steve Austria (R) - 1st term
  • House District 8:  John Boehner (R) - 10th term
  • House District 9:  Marcy Kaptur (D) - 14th term
  • House District 10:  Dennis Kucinich (D) - 7th term
  • House District 11:  Marcia Fudge (D) - 1st term
  • House District 12:  Pat Tiberi (R) - 5th term
  • House District 13:  Betty Sutton (D) - 2nd term
  • House District 14:  Steven LaTourette (R) - 7th term
  • House District 15:  Mary Jo Kilroy (D) - 1st term
  • House District 16:  John Boccieri (D) - 1st term
  • House District 17:  Tim Ryan (D) - 4th term
  • House District 18:  Zack Space (D) - 2nd term
  • Historical Partisan Snapshot


     
      Race 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

    President Weak R -- Weak R -- Mod D

    Senate
    Class 1 Solid R -- -- Strong D --
    Class 3 -- -- Solid R -- --

    Governor -- Solid R -- Solid D --

    House 11 GOP
    8 DEM
    12 GOP
    6 DEM
    12 GOP
    6 DEM
    11 GOP
    7 DEM
    8 GOP
    10 DEM
    CD-1 Mod R Solid R Solid R Mod R Weak D
    CD-2 Solid R Solid R Solid R Weak R Mod R
    CD-3 Solid D Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-4 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-5 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-6 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-7 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-8 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-9 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-10 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-11 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-12 Mod R Solid R Solid R Solid R Strong R
    CD-13 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-14 Solid D Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-15 Solid R Solid R Solid R Weak R Weak D
    CD-16 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Strong D
    CD-17 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-18 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid D Solid D
    CD-19 Solid R NA NA NA NA

    BOLD - party turnover
    Party changes not bolded resulted from redistricting before the 2002 election.
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%
  •  

    Ohio Race Tracking
    Senate (open)
    Rob Portman
    vs
    Lee Fisher
    Projected Winner
    Governor
    Ted Strickland - inc
    vs
    John Kasich
    Projected Winner
    House District 1
    Steve Dreihaus - inc
    vs
    Steve Chabot
    Projected Winner
    House District 6
    Charlie Wilson - inc
    vs
    Bill Johnson
    Projected Winner
    House District 13
    Betty Sue Sutton - inc
    vs
    Tom Ganley
    Projected Winner
    House District 15
    Mary Jo Kilroy - inc
    vs
    Steven Stivers
    Projected Winner
    House District 16
    John Boccieri - inc
    vs
    Jim Renacci
    Projected Winner
    House District 18
    Zack Space - inc
    vs
    Bob Gibbs
    Projected Winner
    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political


    Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics


    D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report


    Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas


    David Wissing
    The Hedgehog Report


    Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball


    Richard & Tony
    The Green Papers


    Rose Institute
    Redistricting in America


    Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
    RealClearPolitics

    2010 Projections, State-by-State

    Alabama         
    Alaska
    Arizona
    Arkansas
    California
    Colorado
    Connecticut
    Delaware
    Florida
    Georgia
    Hawaii
    Idaho
    Illinois
    Indiana
    Iowa
    Kansas
    Kentucky
    Louisiana
    Maine
    Maryland
    Massachusetts
    Michigan
    Minnesota
    Mississippi
    Missouri

    Montana
    Nebraska
    Nevada
    New Hampshire
    New Jersey
    New Mexico
    New York
    North Carolina
    North Dakota
    Ohio
    Oklahoma
    Oregon
    Pennsylvania
    Rhode Island
    South Carolina
    South Dakota
    Tennessee
    Texas
    Utah
    Vermont
    Virginia
    Washington
    West Virginia
    Wisconsin
    Wyoming
    Election Projection Resources
     
    EP's RSS Feed

    RSS Feed  RSS
    2010 Projection Results

    2008 Projection Results

    2006 Projection Results

    2004 Projection Results

    Search this site

    provided by Google
    Contact Me

    e-mail Scott at:
    electionprojection
    -at- gmail.com
     

    ©Copyright 2003-2013 Scott Elliott, All Rights Reserved