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2010 Projections

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House
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Oregon  
 
General Information
Latest Polls and Updates

Conservative Ranking


Oregon is the 14th least conservative state, voting 9.08% less Republican in the 2008 presidential elections than the national average.

Partisan Trend


Based on voting patterns since 1992, Oregon is trending DEMOCRAT in presidential elections.

GOP Trend Ranking


Oregon ranks 37th among the 50 states.
 


Senate Race
Incumbent:  Democratic incumbent Ron Wyden seeks a 4th in 2010.  He faces only minor primary opposition.

GOP Candidates

  • Thomas Stutzman
  • DEM Candidates

  • Ron Wyden - Incumbent
  • Pavel Goberman
  • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Solid DEM Hold

     
    Governor's Race
    OPEN SEAT:  Two-term Democratic incumbent Ted Kulongoski is term-limited in 2010.

    GOP Candidates

  • John Lim - Former Oregon State Senator
  • Allen Alley
  • Chris Dudley
  • Bill Sizemore
  • Jerry Wilson
  • DEM Candidates

  • Bill Bradbury - Former Oregon Secretary of State
  • John Kitzhaber - Former Governor of Oregon
  • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Mod DEM Hold

     
    Competitive House Races
    No competitive races in 2010
     
    Other House Races
    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  David Wu (D)-inc vs. ??? (R) - possibly competitive
  • District 2:  Greg Walden (R)-inc  (currently unopposed)
  • District 3:  Earl Blumenauer (D)-inc  (currently unopposed)
  • District 4:  Pete DeFazio (D)-inc vs. Sid Leiken (R)
  • District 5:  Kurt Schrader (D)-inc vs. Mike Erickson (R) - possibly competitive
  •  
    Additional Information

    Election Timeline


  • March 9, 2010 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • May 18, 2010 - Primary elections
  • November 2, 2010 - Election day
  • Current Partisan Breakdown


     
    National Delegation
      Senators 2 DEM
      Representatives 1 GOP, 4 DEM
    State Government
      Governor DEM
      State Senate - DEM control 12 GOP, 18 DEM
      State Senate - DEM control 24 GOP, 36 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Ted Kulongoski (D) - 2nd term, term-limited in 2010
  • Senior Senator:  Ron Wyden (D) - 3rd term, up for re-election in 2010
  • Junior Senator:  Jeff Merkley (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2014
  • House District 1:  David Wu (D) - 6th term
  • House District 2:  Greg Walden (R) - 6th term
  • House District 3:  Earl Blumenauer (D) - 8th term
  • House District 4:  Pete DeFazio (D) - 12th term
  • House District 5:  Kurt Schrader (D) - 1st term
  • Historical Partisan Snapshot


     
      Race 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

    President Weak D -- Weak D -- Solid D

    Senate
    Class 2 -- Solid R -- -- Weak D
    Class 3 -- -- Solid D -- --

    Governor -- Weak D -- Mod D --

    House 1 GOP
    4 DEM
    1 GOP
    4 DEM
    1 GOP
    4 DEM
    1 GOP
    4 DEM
    1 GOP
    4 DEM
    CD-1 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-2 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-3 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-4 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-5 Strong D Strong D Mod D Strong D Solid D

    BOLD - party turnover
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%
  •  

    Oregon Race Tracking
    Senate
    Ron Wyden - inc
    vs
    undetermined
    Preliminary
    Solid DEM Hold
     
    Governor (open)
    undetermined
    vs
    undetermined
    Preliminary
    Mod DEM Hold
     
    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political


    Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics


    D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report


    Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas


    Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball


    Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
    RealClearPolitics

    EP's Weekly Poll

    Previous Polls
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