| |
|---|
| Pennsylvania |
 |
|
|
| |
|---|
|
Latest Polls and Updates
Conservative Ranking
Pennsylvania is the 19th least conservative state, voting
3.05% less Republican in the 2008 presidential elections than the national average.
Partisan Trend
Based on voting patterns since 1992, Pennsylvania is trending DEMOCRAT in presidential
elections.
GOP Trend Ranking
Pennsylvania ranks 25th among the 50 states.
|
|
| |
|
|
Incumbent: Democratic incumbent Arlen Specter seeks a 6th in 2010. He faces primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
Pat Toomey - Former U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania
John Kensinger
Peg Luksik
Robert Townsend
Larry Murphy
DEM Candidates
Arlen Specter - Incumbent
Joe Sestak - U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania
Mike Mentzer
Joe Vodvarka
Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.
Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries
Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries
Preliminary Projection - Weak GOP Gain
|
| |
|
|
|
OPEN SEAT: Two-term Democratic incumbent Edward Rendell is term-limited in 2010.
GOP Candidates
Tom Corbett - Pennsylvania State Attorney General
Samuel Rohrer - Pennsylvania State Representative
Robert Mansfield
DEM Candidates
Christopher Doherty - Mayor of Scranton
Joe Hoeffel - Former U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania
Dan Onorato - Allegheny County Executive
Jack Wagner
Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.
Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries
Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries
Preliminary Projection - Weak GOP Gain
|
| |
|
District 3
Incumbent: Democratic incumbent Kathy Dahlkemper is running for re-election for the first time in 2010. She currently faces no primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
Steven Fisher
Ed Franz
Clayton Grabb
Paul Huber
Mike Kelley
Donna Reese
Elaine Surma
Salvatore Paparelli
DEM Candidates
Kathy Dahlkemper - Incumbent
Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.
Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries
Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries
Preliminary Projection - Mod DEM Hold
|
| |
District 4
Incumbent: Democratic incumbent Jason Altmire seeks a 3rd term in 2010. He currently faces no primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
Mary Beth Buchanan - U.S. Attorney
Keith Rothfus
DEM Candidates
Jason Altmire - Incumbent
Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.
Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries
Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries
Preliminary Projection - Mod DEM Hold
|
| |
District 6
Incumbent: Republican incumbent Jim Gerlach seeks a 5th term in 2010. He faces only minor primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
Jim Gerlach - Incumbent
DEM Candidates
Doug Pike
Manan Trivedi
Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.
Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries
Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries
Preliminary Projection - Weak GOP Hold
|
| |
District 7
OPEN SEAT: Democratic incumbent Joe Sestak is running for the Senate. He is not seeking re-election in 2010.
GOP Candidates
Patrick Meehan - Former U.S. Attorney
DEM Candidates
Bryan Lentz - Pennsylvania State Representative
Gail Conner
Teresa Touey
Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.
Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries
Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries
Preliminary Projection - Weak GOP Gain
|
| |
District 8
Incumbent: Democratic incumbent Patrick Murphy seeks a 3rd term in 2010. He currently faces no primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
Mike Fitzpatrick - Former U.S. Representative from Pennsylvania
Judith Algeo
Gloria Carlineo
Ira Hoffman
James Jones
Tom Lingenfelter
Jeff McGeary
Jeffrey Schott
DEM Candidates
Patrick Murphy - Incumbent
Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.
Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries
Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries
Preliminary Projection - Mod DEM Hold
|
| |
District 10
Incumbent: Democratic incumbent Chris Carney seeks a 3rd term in 2010. He currently faces no primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
Christopher Bain
Malcolm Derk, III - Snyder County Commissioner
David Madiera
Tom Marino
Leonard Modzelesky
Daniel Naylor
Leslie Sheridan
Steven Solieri
DEM Candidates
Chris Carney - Incumbent
Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.
Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries
Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries
Preliminary Projection - Mod DEM Hold
|
| |
District 11
Incumbent: Democratic incumbent Paul Kanjorski seeks a 14th term in 2010. He faces only minor primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
Lou Barletta - Mayor of Hazelton
Chris Paige
DEM Candidates
Paul Kanjorski - Incumbent
Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.
Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries
Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries
Preliminary Projection - Mod DEM Hold
|
| |
District 12
SPECIAL ELECTION: Democratic incumbent John Murtha passed away on February 8, 2010. A special election will
be held to fill the seat on primary election day, May 18.
GOP Candidates
Dave Reed - Philadelphia State Representative
William Russell - 2008 Nominee
Tim Burns
Mark Pasquerilla
DEM Candidates
Tom Ceraso - Westmoreland County Commissioner
Mark Singel - Former Lt. Governor of Pennsylvania
Ryan Bucchianeri
Ron Mackell
Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.
Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries
Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries
Preliminary Projection - Weak DEM Hold
|
| |
District 15
Incumbent: Republican incumbent Charlie Dent seeks a 4th term in 2010. He currently faces no primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
Charlie Dent - Incumbent
DEM Candidates
John Callahan - Mayor of Bethlehem
Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.
Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries
Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries
Preliminary Projection - Mod GOP Hold
|
| |
District 17
Incumbent: Democratic incumbent Timothy Holden seeks a 10th term in 2010. He currently faces only minor primary opposition.
GOP Candidates
Josh First
Allen Griffith
Frank Ryan
DEM Candidates
Timothy Holden - Incumbent
Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.
Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries
Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries
Preliminary Projection - Mod DEM Hold
|
| |
|
|
|
Projected winner listed first
District 1: Bob Brady (D)-inc (currently unopposed)
District 2: Chaka Fattah (D)-inc vs. Rick Hellberg (R)
District 5: G.T. Thompson (R) (currently unopposed)
District 9: Bill Shuster (R)-inc (currently unopposed)
District 13: Allyson Schwartz? (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
District 14: Mike Doyle (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
District 16: Joseph Pitts (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)
District 18: Tim Murphy (R)-inc vs. Dan Connolly (D)
District 19: Todd Platts (R)-inc vs. Ryan Sanders (D)
|
| |
|
|
Election Timeline
March 9, 2010 - Deadline to file for candidacy
May 18, 2010 - Primary elections
November 2, 2010 - Election day
Current Partisan Breakdown
|
| |
| National Delegation |
| Senators |
2 DEM |
| Representatives |
7 GOP, 12 DEM, 1 vacant |
| State Government |
| Governor |
DEM |
| Lt. Governor - tied to Governor |
DEM |
| State Senate - GOP control |
30 GOP, 20 DEM |
| State House - DEM control |
99 GOP,104 DEM |
Current Office Holders
Governor: Ed Rendell (D) - 2nd term, term-limited in 2010
Lt. Governor (Acting): Joe Scarnati (R) - 1st term (partial), tied to Governor
Senior Senator: Arlen Spector (D) - 5th term, up for re-election in 2010
Junior Senator: Bob Casey, Jr. (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2012
House District 1: Bob Brady (D) - 6th term
House District 2: Chaka Fattah (D) - 8th term
House District 3: Kathy Dahlkemper (D) - 1st term
House District 4: Jason Altmire (D) - 2nd term
House District 5: G.T. Thompson (R) - 1st term
House District 6: Jim Gerlach (R) - 4th term
House District 7: Joseph Sestak (D) - 2nd term (running for Senate)
House District 8: Patrick Murphy (D) - 2nd term
House District 9: Bill Shuster (R) - 5th term
House District 10: Chris Carney (D) - 2nd term
House District 11: Paul Kanjorski (D) - 13th term
House District 12: vacant
John Murtha (D) died on February 9, 2010 during his 19th term.
House District 13: Allyson Schwartz (D) - 3rd term
House District 14: Mike Doyle (D) - 8th term
House District 15: Charlie Dent (R) - 3rd term
House District 16: Joseph Pitts (R) - 7th term
House District 17: Tim Holden (D) - 9th term
House District 18: Tim Murphy (R) - 4th term
House District 19: Todd Platts (R) - 5th term
Historical Partisan Snapshot
|
| |
| Race |
2000 |
2002 |
2004 |
2006 |
2008 |
|
| President |
Weak D |
-- |
Weak D |
-- |
Strong D |
Senate |
| Class 1 |
Mod R |
-- |
-- |
Solid D |
-- |
| Class 3 |
-- |
-- |
Strong R |
-- |
-- |
|
| Governor |
-- |
Mod D |
-- |
Solid D |
-- |
|
| House |
11 GOP
10 DEM |
12 GOP
7 DEM |
12 GOP
7 DEM |
8 GOP
11 DEM |
7 GOP
12 DEM |
| CD-1 |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
| CD-2 |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
| CD-3 |
Solid D |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Strong R |
Weak D |
| CD-4 |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Weak D |
Strong D |
| CD-5 |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
| CD-6 |
Solid D |
Weak R |
Weak R |
Weak R |
Weak R |
| CD-7 |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Strong D |
Solid D |
| CD-8 |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Strong R |
Weak D |
Solid D |
| CD-9 |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
| CD-10 |
Mod R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Mod D |
Strong D |
| CD-11 |
Solid D |
Strong D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Weak D |
| CD-12 |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
| CD-13 |
Mod D |
Weak D |
Strong D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
| CD-14 |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
| CD-15 |
Mod R |
Mod R |
Solid R |
Mod R |
Solid R |
| CD-16 |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
| CD-17 |
Solid R |
Weak D |
Weak D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
| CD-18 |
Solid D |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
| CD-19 |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
| CD-20 |
Solid D |
NA |
NA |
NA |
NA |
| CD-21 |
Solid R |
NA |
NA |
NA |
|
BOLD - party turnover
Party changes not bolded resulted from redistricting before the 2002 election. |
Race ratings:
|
"Weak" - less than 5%
"Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
"Strong" - 10% to 15%
"Solid" - greater than 15%
|
|
|
|
| |
|
