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2010 Projections

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South Dakota  
 
General Information
Latest Polls and Updates

Conservative Ranking


South Dakota is the 19th most conservative state, voting 15.68% more Republican in the 2008 presidential elections than the national average.

Partisan Trend


Based on voting patterns since 1992, South Dakota is trending REPUBLICAN in presidential elections.

GOP Trend Ranking


South Dakota ranks 15th among the 50 states.
 


Senate Race
Incumbent:  Republican incumbent John Thune seeks a 2nd term in 2010.  He faces no primary opposition.

GOP Candidates

  • John Thune - Incumbent
  • DEM Candidates

  • None at present
  • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Solid GOP Hold

     
    Governor's Race
    OPEN SEAT:  Two-term Republican incumbent Mike Rounds is term-limited in 2010.

    GOP Candidates

  • Dennis Daugaard - South Dakota Lt. Governor
  • Gary Hanson - Former Sioux Falls Mayor
  • Gordon Howie - South Dakota State Senator
  • Dave Knudson - South Dakota State Senator
  • Ken Knuppe
  • Kelby Krabbenhoft
  • Scott Munsterman - Mayor of Brookings
  • DEM Candidates

  • Scott Heidepriem - South Dakota State Senator
  • Ron Volesky - Former South Dakota State Senator
  • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Solid GOP Hold

     
    Competitive House Races

    At-large District
    Incumbent:  Democratic incumbent Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin seeks a 5th term in 2010.  She currently faces no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Blake Curd - South Dakota State Representative
  • Chris Nelson - South Dakota Secretary of State
  • Steven Hickey
  • Tarn Vieira
  • DEM Candidates

  • Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin
  • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Mod DEM Hold

     
    Other House Races
    None
     
    Additional Information

    Election Timeline


  • March 30, 2010 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • June 8, 2010 - Primary elections
  • June 29, 2010 - Primary runoff
  • November 2, 2010 - Election day
  • Current Partisan Breakdown


     
    National Delegation
      Senators 1 GOP, 1 DEM
      Representatives 1 DEM
    State Government
      Governor GOP
      Lt. Governor - tied to Governor GOP
      State Senate - GOP control 20 GOP, 14 DEM, 1 IND
      State House - GOP control 46 GOP, 24 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Mike Rounds (R) - 2nd term, term-limited in 2010
  • Lt. Governor:  Dennis Daugaard (R) - 2nd term, tied to Governor
  • Senior Senator:  Tim Johnson (D) - 3rd term, up for re-election in 2014
  • Junior Senator:  John Thune (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2010
  • House District 1:  Stephanie Sandlin (D) - 4th term

    Historical Partisan Snapshot


  •  
      Race 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

    President Solid R -- Solid R -- Mod R

    Senate
    Class 2 -- Weak D -- -- Solid D
    Class 3 -- -- Weak R -- --

    Governor -- Solid R -- Solid R --

    House 1 GOP 1 GOP 1 DEM 1 DEM 1 DEM
    CD-1 Solid R Mod R Mod D Solid D Solid D

    BOLD - party turnover
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%
  •  

    South Dakota Race Tracking
    Senate
    John Thune - inc
    vs
    undetermined
    Preliminary
    Solid GOP Hold
     
    Governor (open)
    undetermined
    vs
    undetermined
    Preliminary
    Solid GOP Hold
     
    House District AL
    Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin - inc
    vs
    undetermined
    Preliminary
    Mod DEM Hold
     
    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political


    Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics


    D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report


    Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas


    Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball


    Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
    RealClearPolitics

    EP's Weekly Poll

    Previous Polls
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