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2010 Projections

 Senate
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Texas  
 
General Information
Latest Polls and Updates

Conservative Ranking

Texas is the 15th most conservative state, voting 19.03% more Republican in the 2008 presidential elections than the national average.

Partisan Trend

Based on voting patterns since 1992, Texas is trending REPUBLICAN in presidential elections.

GOP Trend Ranking

Texas ranks 12th among the 50 states.
 


Senate Race
No race in 2010
 
Governor's Race
Incumbent:  Republican incumbent Rick Perry seeks a 3rd in 2010.  He faces primary opposition.

GOP Candidates

  • Rick Perry - Incumbent  
  • Kay Bailey Hutchison - U.S. Senator from Texas
  • Debra Medina

    • DEM Candidates

  • Bill White - Mayor of Houston  
  • Alma Aguado
  • Felix Alvarado
  • Bill Dear
  • Clement Glenn
  • Robert Locke
  • Farouk Shami

    • Party nominee -

    Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

     
    Competitive House Races

    District 17
    Incumbent:  Democrat incumbent Chet Edwards seeks an 11th term in 2010.  He currently faces no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Rob Curnock - 29%, in April, 13th runoff
  • Timothy Delasandro - 5%
  • Bill Flores - 33%, in April, 13th runoff
  • David McIntyre - 18%
  • Chuck Wilson - 15%

    • DEM Candidates

  • Chet Edwards - Incumbent

    • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after runoff election

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after runoff election

    Preliminary Projection - Mod DEM Hold

     
    Other House Races
    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Louie Gohmert (R)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 2:  Ted Poe (R)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 3:  Sam Johnson (R)-inc vs. John Lingenfelder (D)
  • District 4:  Ralph Hall (R)-inc vs. VaLinda Hathcox (D)
  • District 5:  Jeb Hensarling (R)-inc vs. Tom Berry (D)
  • District 6:  Joe Barton (R)-inc vs. David Cozad (D)
  • District 7:  John Culberson (R)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 8:  Kevin Brady (R)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 9:  Al Green (D)-inc vs. Steve Mueller (R)
  • District 10:  Mike McCaul (R)-inc vs. Ted Ankrum (D)
  • District 11:  Michael Conaway (R)-inc vs. James Quillian (D)
  • District 12:  Kay Granger (R)-inc vs. Tracey Smith (D)
  • District 13:  "Mac" Thornberry (R)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 14:  Ron Paul (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)
  • District 15:  Ruben Hinojosa (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
  • District 16:  Silvestre Reyes (D)-inc vs. Tim Besco (R)
  • District 18:  Sheila Jackson Lee (D)-inc vs. John Faulk (R)
  • District 19:  Randy Neugebauer (R)-inc vs. Andy Wilson (D)
  • District 20:  Charlie Gonzalez (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
  • District 21:  Lamar Smith (R)-inc vs. Lainey Melnick (D)
  • District 22:  Pete Olsen (R)-inc vs. Kesha Rogers (D)
  • District 23:  Ciro Rodriguez (D)-inc vs. ??? (R) - possibly competitive
  • District 24:  Kenny Marchant (R)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 25:  Lloyd Doggett (D)-inc vs. Donna Campbell (R)
  • District 26:  Michael Burgess (R)-inc vs. Neil Durrance (D)
  • District 27:  Solomon Ortiz (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
  • District 28:  Henry Cuellar (D)-inc vs. Bryan Underwood (R)
  • District 29:  Gene Green (D)-inc vs. Roy Morales (R)
  • District 30:  Eddie Johnson (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
  • District 31:  John Carter (R)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 32:  Pete Sessions (R)-inc vs. Grier Raggio (D)
    		•
     
    Additional Information

    Election Timeline

  • January 4, 2010 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • March 2, 2010 - Primary elections
  • April 13, 2010 - Primary runoff
  • November 2, 2010 - Election day

    • Current Partisan Breakdown
     
    National Delegation
      Senators 2 GOP
      Representatives 20 GOP, 12 DEM
    State Government
      Governor GOP
      Lt. Governor GOP
      State Senate - GOP control 19 GOP, 12 DEM
      State House - GOP control 76 GOP, 74 DEM

    Current Office Holders

  • Governor:  Rick Perry (R) - 3rd term, up for re-election in 2010
  • Lt. Governor:  David Dewhurst (R) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2010
  • Senior Senator:  Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) - 3rd term, up for re-election in 2012
  • Junior Senator:  John Cornyn (R) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2014
  • House District 1:  Louie Gohmert (R) - 3rd term
  • House District 2:  Ted Poe (R) - 3rd term
  • House District 3:  Sam Johnson (R) - 10th term
  • House District 4:  Ralph Hall (R) - 15th term
  • House District 5:  Jeb Hensarling (R) - 4th term
  • House District 6:  Joe Barton (R) - 13th term
  • House District 7:  John Culberson (R) - 5th term
  • House District 8:  Kevin Brady (R) - 7th term
  • House District 9:  Al Green (D) - 3rd term
  • House District 10:  Mike McCaul (R) - 3rd term
  • House District 11:  Michael Conaway (R) - 3rd term
  • House District 12:  Kay Granger (R) - 7th term
  • House District 13:  "Mac" Thornberry (R) - 8th term
  • House District 14:  Ron Paul (R) - 10th term
  • House District 15:  Ruben Hinojosa (D) - 11th term
  • House District 16:  Silvestre Reyes (D) - 7th term
  • House District 17:  Chet Edwards (D) - 10th term
  • House District 18:  Sheila Jackson Lee (D) - 8th term
  • House District 19:  Randy Neugebauer (R) - 4th term
  • House District 20:  Charlie Gonzalez (D) - 6th term
  • House District 21:  Lamar Smith (R) - 12th term
  • House District 22:  Pete Olsen (R) - 1st term
  • House District 23:  Ciro Rodriguez (D) - 2nd term
  • House District 24:  Kenny Marchant (R) - 3rd term
  • House District 25:  Lloyd Doggett (D) - 8th term
  • House District 26:  Michael Burgess (R) - 4th term
  • House District 27:  Solomon Ortiz (D) - 14th term
  • House District 28:  Henry Cuellar (D) - 3rd term
  • House District 29:  Gene Green (D) - 9th term
  • House District 30:  Eddie Johnson (D) - 9th term
  • House District 31:  John Carter (R) - 4th term
  • House District 32:  Pete Sessions (R) - 7th term

    • Historical Partisan Snapshot
     
      Race 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
    President Solid R -- Solid R -- Strong R
    Senate
    Class 1 Solid R -- -- Solid R --
    Class 2 -- Strong R -- -- Strong R
    Governor -- Solid R -- Mod R
    House 13 GOP
    17 DEM    		 15 GOP
    17 DEM    		 21 GOP
    11 DEM    		 19 GOP
    13 DEM    		 20 GOP
    12 DEM
    CD-1 Strong D Strong D Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-2 Solid D Solid D Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-3 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-4 Solid D Solid D Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-5 Strong R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-6 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-7 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Strong R
    CD-8 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-9 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-10 Solid D Solid D Solid R Solid R Strong R
    CD-11 Strong D Mod D Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-12 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-13 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-14 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-15 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-16 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-17 Solid D Weak D Weak D Solid D Mod D
    CD-18 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-19 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-20 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-21 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-22 Solid R Solid R Strong R Strong D Mod R
    CD-23 Solid R Weak R Solid R Weak D Strong D
    CD-24 Solid D Solid D Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-25 Solid D Strong D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-26 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-27 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-28 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-29 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-30 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-31 NA Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-32 NA Solid R Strong R Solid R Solid R
    BOLD - party turnover
    Party change not bolded resulted from redistricting before the 2004 election.
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%
    •
     

    Texas Race Tracking
    Governor
    Rick Perry - inc
    vs
    undetermined
    Projected Winner
    House District 17
    Chet Edwards - inc
    vs
    undetermined
    Preliminary
    Mod DEM Hold
     
    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political

     Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics

     D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report

     Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas

     Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball

     Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
    RealClearPolitics
    EP's Weekly Poll

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