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2012 Projections

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Texas  
 
General Information

Election Timeline


  • January 4, 2010 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • March 2, 2010 - Primary elections
  • April 13, 2010 - Primary runoff
  • November 2, 2010 - Election day
  • Latest Polls and Updates


    Conservative Ranking


    Texas is the 15th most conservative state, voting 19.03% more Republican in the 2008 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Texas is trending REPUBLICAN in presidential elections.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    Texas ranks 12th among the 50 states.
     

    Senate Race
    No race in 2010
     
    Governor's Race
    Incumbent:  Republican incumbent Rick Perry seeks a 3rd in 2010.  He faced primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Rick Perry - Incumbent  
  • Kay Bailey Hutchison - U.S. Senator from Texas
  • Debra Medina
  • DEM Candidates

  • Bill White - Mayor of Houston  
  • Alma Aguado
  • Felix Alvarado
  • Bill Dear
  • Clement Glenn
  • Robert Locke
  • Farouk Shami
  • Party nominee -

    Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

     
    Competitive House Races

    District 17 (map)
    Incumbent:  Democrat incumbent Chet Edwards seeks an 11th term in 2010.  He faced no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Bill Flores  
  • Rob Curnock
  • Timothy Delasandro
  • David McIntyre
  • Chuck Wilson
  • DEM Candidates

  • Chet Edwards - Incumbent  
  • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

     

    District 23 (map)
    Incumbent:  Democrat incumbent Ciro Rodriguez seeks an 11th term in 2010.  He faced primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Francisco Canseco  
  • Joseph Gould
  • William Hurd
  • Michael Kueber
  • Robert Lowry
  • DEM Candidates

  • Ciro Rodriguez - Incumbent  
  • Antonio Ortiz
  • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

     

    District 27 (map)
    Incumbent:  Democrat incumbent Solomon Ortiz seeks an 15th term in 2010.

    GOP Candidates

  • Randolph Farenthold  
  • DEM Candidates

  • Solomon Ortiz - Incumbent  
  • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

     
    Other House Races
    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Louie Gohmert (R)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 2:  Ted Poe (R)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 3:  Sam Johnson (R)-inc vs. John Lingenfelder (D)
  • District 4:  Ralph Hall (R)-inc vs. VaLinda Hathcox (D)
  • District 5:  Jeb Hensarling (R)-inc vs. Tom Berry (D)
  • District 6:  Joe Barton (R)-inc vs. David Cozad (D)
  • District 7:  John Culberson (R)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 8:  Kevin Brady (R)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 9:  Al Green (D)-inc vs. Steve Mueller (R)
  • District 10:  Mike McCaul (R)-inc vs. Ted Ankrum (D)
  • District 11:  Michael Conaway (R)-inc vs. James Quillian (D)
  • District 12:  Kay Granger (R)-inc vs. Tracey Smith (D)
  • District 13:  "Mac" Thornberry (R)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 14:  Ron Paul (R)-inc vs. Robert Pruett, Jr. (D)
  • District 15:  Ruben Hinojosa (D)-inc vs. Edward Zamora, Jr. (R)
  • District 16:  Silvestre Reyes (D)-inc vs. Tim Besco (R)
  • District 18:  Sheila Jackson Lee (D)-inc vs. John Faulk (R)
  • District 19:  Randy Neugebauer (R)-inc vs. Andy Wilson (D)
  • District 20:  Charlie Gonzalez (D)-inc vs. Clayton Trotter (R)
  • District 21:  Lamar Smith (R)-inc vs. Lainey Melnick (D)
  • District 22:  Pete Olsen (R)-inc vs. Kesha Rogers (D)
  • District 24:  Kenny Marchant (R)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 25:  Lloyd Doggett (D)-inc vs. Donna Campbell (R)
  • District 26:  Michael Burgess (R)-inc vs. Neil Durrance (D)
  • District 28:  Henry Cuellar (D)-inc vs. Bryan Underwood (R)
  • District 29:  Gene Green (D)-inc vs. Roy Morales (R)
  • District 30:  Eddie Johnson (D)-inc vs. Stephen Broden (R)
  • District 31:  John Carter (R)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 32:  Pete Sessions (R)-inc vs. Grier Raggio (D)
  •  
    Additional Information
    Current Partisan Breakdown
     
    National Delegation
      Senators 2 GOP
      Representatives 20 GOP, 12 DEM
    State Government
      Governor GOP
      Lt. Governor GOP
      State Senate - GOP control 19 GOP, 12 DEM
      State House - GOP control 76 GOP, 74 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Rick Perry (R) - 3rd term, up for re-election in 2010
  • Lt. Governor:  David Dewhurst (R) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2010
  • Senior Senator:  Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) - 3rd term, up for re-election in 2012
  • Junior Senator:  John Cornyn (R) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2014
  • House District 1:  Louie Gohmert (R) - 3rd term
  • House District 2:  Ted Poe (R) - 3rd term
  • House District 3:  Sam Johnson (R) - 10th term
  • House District 4:  Ralph Hall (R) - 15th term
  • House District 5:  Jeb Hensarling (R) - 4th term
  • House District 6:  Joe Barton (R) - 13th term
  • House District 7:  John Culberson (R) - 5th term
  • House District 8:  Kevin Brady (R) - 7th term
  • House District 9:  Al Green (D) - 3rd term
  • House District 10:  Mike McCaul (R) - 3rd term
  • House District 11:  Michael Conaway (R) - 3rd term
  • House District 12:  Kay Granger (R) - 7th term
  • House District 13:  "Mac" Thornberry (R) - 8th term
  • House District 14:  Ron Paul (R) - 10th term
  • House District 15:  Ruben Hinojosa (D) - 11th term
  • House District 16:  Silvestre Reyes (D) - 7th term
  • House District 17:  Chet Edwards (D) - 10th term
  • House District 18:  Sheila Jackson Lee (D) - 8th term
  • House District 19:  Randy Neugebauer (R) - 4th term
  • House District 20:  Charlie Gonzalez (D) - 6th term
  • House District 21:  Lamar Smith (R) - 12th term
  • House District 22:  Pete Olsen (R) - 1st term
  • House District 23:  Ciro Rodriguez (D) - 2nd term
  • House District 24:  Kenny Marchant (R) - 3rd term
  • House District 25:  Lloyd Doggett (D) - 8th term
  • House District 26:  Michael Burgess (R) - 4th term
  • House District 27:  Solomon Ortiz (D) - 14th term
  • House District 28:  Henry Cuellar (D) - 3rd term
  • House District 29:  Gene Green (D) - 9th term
  • House District 30:  Eddie Johnson (D) - 9th term
  • House District 31:  John Carter (R) - 4th term
  • House District 32:  Pete Sessions (R) - 7th term
  • Historical Partisan Snapshot


     
      Race 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

    President Solid R -- Solid R -- Strong R

    Senate
    Class 1 Solid R -- -- Solid R --
    Class 2 -- Strong R -- -- Strong R

    Governor -- Solid R -- Mod R

    House 13 GOP
    17 DEM
    15 GOP
    17 DEM
    21 GOP
    11 DEM
    19 GOP
    13 DEM
    20 GOP
    12 DEM
    CD-1 Strong D Strong D Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-2 Solid D Solid D Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-3 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-4 Solid D Solid D Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-5 Strong R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-6 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-7 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Strong R
    CD-8 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-9 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-10 Solid D Solid D Solid R Solid R Strong R
    CD-11 Strong D Mod D Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-12 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-13 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-14 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-15 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-16 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-17 Solid D Weak D Weak D Solid D Mod D
    CD-18 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-19 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-20 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-21 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-22 Solid R Solid R Strong R Strong D Mod R
    CD-23 Solid R Weak R Solid R Weak D Strong D
    CD-24 Solid D Solid D Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-25 Solid D Strong D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-26 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-27 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-28 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-29 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-30 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-31 NA Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-32 NA Solid R Strong R Solid R Solid R

    BOLD - party turnover
    Party change not bolded resulted from redistricting before the 2004 election.
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%
  •  

    Texas Race Tracking
    Governor
    Rick Perry - inc
    vs
    Bill White
    Projected Winner
    House District 17
    Chet Edwards - inc
    vs
    Bill Flores
    Projected Winner
    House District 23
    Ciro Rodriguez - inc
    vs
    Francisco Canseco
    Projected Winner
    House District 27
    Solomon Ortiz - inc
    vs
    Randolph Farenthold
    Projected Winner
    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political


    Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics


    D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report


    Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas


    David Wissing
    The Hedgehog Report


    Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball


    Richard & Tony
    The Green Papers


    Rose Institute
    Redistricting in America


    Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
    RealClearPolitics

    2010 Projections, State-by-State

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