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2010 Projections

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West Virginia  
 
General Information
Latest Polls and Updates

Conservative Ranking


West Virginia is the 14th most conservative state, voting 20.36% more Republican in the 2008 presidential elections than the national average.

Partisan Trend


Based on voting patterns since 1992, West Virginia is trending REPUBLICAN in presidential elections.

GOP Trend Ranking


West Virginia ranks 3rd among the 50 states.
 


Senate Race
No race in 2010
 
Governor's Race
No race in 2010
 
Competitive House Races

District 1
Incumbent:  Democratic incumbent Alan Mollohan is running for a 15th term in 2010.  He faces minor primary opposition.

GOP Candidates

  • Cindy Hall
  • David McKinley - Former West Virginia State Delegate
  • Sarah Minear - Former West Virginia State Senator
  • Patricia Levenson
  • Randy Scott Smith
  • Thomas Stark
  • Daniel Swisher
  • Andrew Warner
  • DEM Candidates

  • Alan Mollohan - Incumbent
  • Michael Olivario, II - West Virginia State Senator
  • R.J. Smith
  • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Mod DEM Hold

     
    Other House Races
    Projected winner listed first
  • District 2:  Shelly Capito (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)-inc
  • District 3:  Nick Joe Rahall, II? (D)-inc vs. ??? (R) - possibly competitive
  •  
    Additional Information

    Election Timeline


  • January 30, 2010 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • May 11, 2010 - Primary elections
  • November 2, 2010 - Election day
  • Current Partisan Breakdown


     
    National Delegation
      Senators 2 DEM
      Representatives 1 GOP, 2 DEM
    State Government
      Governor DEM
      State Senate - DEM control 6 GOP, 28 DEM
      State House - DEM control 21 GOP, 79 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Joe Manchin, II (D) - 2nd term, term-limited in 2012
  • Senior Senator:  Robert Byrd (D) - 9th term, up for re-election in 2012
  • Junior Senator:  Jay Rockefeller, IV (D) - 5th term, up for re-election in 2014
  • House District 1:  Alan Mollohan (D) - 14th term
  • House District 2:  Shelley Capito (R) - 5th term
  • House District 3:  Nick Joe Rahall, II (D) - 17th term
  • Historical Partisan Snapshot


     
      Race 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

    President Mod R -- Mod R -- Strong R

    Senate
    Class 1 Solid D -- -- Solid D --
    Class 2 -- Solid D -- -- Solid D

    Governor Weak D -- Solid D -- Solid D

    House 1 GOP
    2 DEM
    1 GOP
    2 DEM
    1 GOP
    2 DEM
    1 GOP
    2 DEM
    1 GOP
    2 DEM
    CD-1 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-2 Mod R Solid R Solid R Strong R Strong R
    CD-3 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D

    BOLD - party turnover
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%
  •  

    West Virginia Race Tracking
    House District 1
    Alan Mollohan - inc
    vs
    undetermined
    Preliminary
    Mod DEM Hold
     
    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political


    Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics


    D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report


    Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas


    Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball


    Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
    RealClearPolitics

    EP's Weekly Poll

    Previous Polls
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