Reapportionment and Redistricting:  One congressional seat was lost here as a result of the 2010 census.  Nevertheless, at 18 seats, Illinois' House delegation will remain formidable for the next decade at least.  And that delegation will likely be decidedly bluer after the upcoming election cycle.  Since Democrats control the redistricting process and since Republicans hold an unlikely 11-8 advantage in present congressional representation, redistricting prospects are ripe for a large Democratic shift.  Indeed, Cook Political Report foresees the GOP losing up to 4 seats here just from the new map.  Of course, that depends on the outcome of a court battle now underway to throw out the map Democrats have drawn.  However, I don't expect them to have to go back to the drawing board this time.

President:  A deep blue state for 20 years now in presidential elections, Illinois will be friendly territory once again for President Obama.  President George H.W. Bush was the last Republican to carry the state back in 1988; 2012's nominee won't be the next.  Obama will enjoy another Solid DEM Hold in the state that elected him to the Senate before helping him win the White House in 2008.

Senate:  Entrenched Democratic Senator Richard Durbin will be up for a fourth term in 2014.  His Republican counterpart, freshman Mark Steven Kirk, won't be up for re-election until 2016.

Governor:  Pat Quinn was promoted to the Governor's Mansion in 2009 after Rod Blagojevich's disgraced exit.  The Democrat then proceeded to win a very close race in 2010 against Republican Bill Brady.  He'll be up for re-election again in 2014.

House:  Illinois is one of the states most affected by redistricting.  Like North Carolina for Republicans, the Land of Lincoln has become the land of opportunity for Democrats.  This cycle starts off here at Election Projection with a full one-third of all Illinois House seats on the hotly-contested list.  Among them, only District 12 is currently held by a Democrat, and only District 13 is initially projected to stay with the Republicans.  The rest, Districts 8,10,11,17, start the season as projected Democratic takeovers.  Election 2010 saw the GOP sweep away four Democratic incumbents in Illinois.  Democrats seem poised to wipe out those Republican gains in 2012.

Check out the Illinois state page throughout 2012 for all the exciting details.

Next stop:  Indiana



Filed under:  Illinois 2012  IL President 2012  IL House 2012