New Hampshire Governor Race
I haven't often gotten the opportunity to discuss gubernatorial races much this year.  There are only eleven on tap this year and those have been very static for the most part.  A Public Policy Polling (D) survey coming out of New Hampshire yesterday flips the statehouse projection there from red to blue.  The poll gives Democrat Maggie Hassan a 4-point edge over Republican Ovide Lamontagne in the race to replace the retiring governor, Democrat John Lynch and shifts the projection in her favor by 1.3%.  Republicans are still projected to increase their lead in governorships by 2 even after taking New Hampshire off the board.

Reapportionment and Redistricting:  New Hampshire's population change over the decade of the 2000s was in line with the overall change in the US.  Thus, there will still be two congressional seats here.  Interestingly, the population in each existing district grew at almost the same rate.  That means no redistricting is necessary this census cycle.  Add to that a Republican legislature balanced by a Democratic governor, and it is easy to see how New Hampshire's congressional map might be left unchanged for the next 10 years - as it has been for generations.

President:  Since Bill Clinton carried New Hampshire in 1992 and with the exception of George W. Bush's victory here in 2000, the state's partisan trend in presidential elections has moved more and more toward the Democrats.  After the red wave that washed over the country in 2010's mid-term election swept two New Hampshire Democrats out of the House, 2012's outcome has gotten a bit cloudier.  I am starting this race off as a Weak DEM Hold which projects Obama to win New Hampshire's 4 electoral votes but by a smaller margin than four year ago.

Senate:  Kelly Ayotte, a rising star in the Republican Party, won the Senate seat of outgoing Republican Senator Judd Gregg in 2010.  Her first re-election bid comes around in 2016.  Democrat Jeanne Shaheen, former Granite State governor, is the senior senator here.  She first won her seat on Capitol Hill in 2008.  She'll be up for re-election in 2014.

Governor:  New Hampshire and Vermont are the only states that elect governors to two-year terms.  Hence, each election cycle a race for the statehouse takes place.  Democrat John Lynch has won four terms as governor here and would have been heavily favored to win another one had he not decided to step down.  In his absence, a very competitive race looks to be forming.  It's very early, of course, but Democrat Maggie Hassan, currently the only Democrat candidate in the race, is running slightly behind several Republicans according to a July, 2011 poll.  While one poll does not a trend make, it is the only concrete indicator I have of how this race starts out.  Therefore, it starts out here as a Weak GOP Gain.

House:  Over the last several election cycles, New Hampshire has conducted a periodic "clearing of the decks" so to speak in their House delegation.  Before the 2006 elections, both representatives were Republicans.  That year, both Republicans lost.  Four years later, in 2010, both sophomore Democratic representatives met the same outcome.  This time around, both House races again will be competitive with Republican Charlie Bass in District 2 the more vulnerable of the two.  In another interesting pairing, both races could end up being rematches of the 2010 contests.  Former Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter is running for the Democratic nomination in District 1.  She was defeated by sitting Congressman Frank Guinta in 2010.  And Anne Kuster, Bass' previous opponent, has thrown her lot into the District 2 race.  Though both Republicans are vulnerable, both races begin the cycle here at Election Projection as Weak GOP Holds.

You'll find all the details on the New Hampshire state page.

Next stop:  New Jersey



Filed under:  New Hampshire 2012  NH President 2012  NH Governor 2012  NH House 2012