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2012 New Hampshire Governor Election  
Maggie Hassan  vs.  Ovide Lamontagne
 

General Information

Current Office Holder


John Lynch (D) - retiring

Most Recent Election


2010:  John Lynch (D)-inc 52.6% - John Stephen (R) 45.0%

Election Timeline


  • June 15, 2012 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • September 11, 2012 - Primary elections (non-presidential)
  • November 6, 2012 - Election day
  • Latest Polls and Updates


    Conservative Ranking


    New Hampshire is the 21st least conservative state, voting 2.34% less Republican in the 2008 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, New Hampshire is trending DEMOCRAT in presidential elections.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    New Hampshire ranks 36th among the 50 states.
     
    Governor Race Data
    OPEN SEAT:  Democrat John Lynch is retiring in 2013 at the end of his fourth 2-year term.  He will not seek re-election in 2012.

    GOP Candidates

  • Ovide Lamontagne  
  • Kevin Smith - Former New Hampshire State Representative
  • Robert Tarr
  • DEM Candidates

  • Maggie Hassan - Former New Hampshire State Senator  
  • Jackie Cilley - Former New Hampshire State Senator
  • Bill Kennedy
  • Party nominee -

    Scroll down for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

     
    New Hampshire Governor Election News
    Monday, October 29, 2012
    EP update for October 29 - Obama leads Electoral Vote projection entering last full week
    Countdown:  8 days until Election Day
    With just a week and a day left before Election Day, President Obama is projected to win 290 electoral votes against just 248 for Mitt Romney.  The challenger's projected 1.3-point advantage in the projected popular vote will be little consolation if the Electoral College turns out as it stands in today's update.  Still, there is nowhere near enough breathing room in several blue battleground states to provide Obama any sense of surety that he'll come out on top.

    New Hampshire Governor Race
    I haven't often gotten the opportunity to discuss gubernatorial races much this year.  There are only eleven on tap this year and those have been very static for the most part.  A Public Policy Polling (D) survey coming out of New Hampshire yesterday flips the statehouse projection there from red to blue.  The poll gives Democrat Maggie Hassan a 4-point edge over Republican Ovide Lamontagne in the race to replace the retiring governor, Democrat John Lynch and shifts the projection in her favor by 1.3%.  Republicans are still projected to increase their lead in governorships by 2 even after taking New Hampshire off the board.

    October 29 Election Projection Update
      Electoral Votes Current Previous Change
      Barack Obama 290 290 no change
      Mitt Romney 248 248 no change
      Party switchers:  none
     
      Popular Vote Current Previous Change
      Mitt Romney 49.9 49.9 no change
      Barack Obama 48.6 48.6 no change
      Party switchers:  none
     
      U.S. Senate Current Previous Change
      Democrats 51 51 no change
      Republicans 47 47 no change
      Independents 2 2 no change
      Party switchers:  none
     
      U.S. House Current Previous Change
      Republicans 241 241 no change
      Democrats 194 194 no change
      Party switchers:  none
     
      Governors Current Previous Change
      Republicans 31 32 -1
      Democrats 18 17 +1
      Independents 1 1 no change
      Party switchers:  New Hampshire
     
    Next update will be tomorrow.



    Filed under: New Hampshire Governor Race  2012 Projection Updates  2012 Presidential Election  2012 Governors 



    posted by Scott Elliott at 10:33am 10/29/12::
    Wednesday, December 21, 2011
    New Hampshire 2012 Preview
    We're just three weeks away from New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation presidential primaries (Iowa holds caucuses), so it's a good time to take a first look at the Granite State on our "Tour of the 50 states."

    Reapportionment and Redistricting:  New Hampshire's population change over the decade of the 2000s was in line with the overall change in the US.  Thus, there will still be two congressional seats here.  Interestingly, the population in each existing district grew at almost the same rate.  That means no redistricting is necessary this census cycle.  Add to that a Republican legislature balanced by a Democratic governor, and it is easy to see how New Hampshire's congressional map might be left unchanged for the next 10 years - as it has been for generations.

    President:  Since Bill Clinton carried New Hampshire in 1992 and with the exception of George W. Bush's victory here in 2000, the state's partisan trend in presidential elections has moved more and more toward the Democrats.  After the red wave that washed over the country in 2010's mid-term election swept two New Hampshire Democrats out of the House, 2012's outcome has gotten a bit cloudier.  I am starting this race off as a Weak DEM Hold which projects Obama to win New Hampshire's 4 electoral votes but by a smaller margin than four year ago.

    Senate:  Kelly Ayotte, a rising star in the Republican Party, won the Senate seat of outgoing Republican Senator Judd Gregg in 2010.  Her first re-election bid comes around in 2016.  Democrat Jeanne Shaheen, former Granite State governor, is the senior senator here.  She first won her seat on Capitol Hill in 2008.  She'll be up for re-election in 2014.

    Governor:  New Hampshire and Vermont are the only states that elect governors to two-year terms.  Hence, each election cycle a race for the statehouse takes place.  Democrat John Lynch has won four terms as governor here and would have been heavily favored to win another one had he not decided to step down.  In his absence, a very competitive race looks to be forming.  It's very early, of course, but Democrat Maggie Hassan, currently the only Democrat candidate in the race, is running slightly behind several Republicans according to a July, 2011 poll.  While one poll does not a trend make, it is the only concrete indicator I have of how this race starts out.  Therefore, it starts out here as a Weak GOP Gain.

    House:  Over the last several election cycles, New Hampshire has conducted a periodic "clearing of the decks" so to speak in their House delegation.  Before the 2006 elections, both representatives were Republicans.  That year, both Republicans lost.  Four years later, in 2010, both sophomore Democratic representatives met the same outcome.  This time around, both House races again will be competitive with Republican Charlie Bass in District 2 the more vulnerable of the two.  In another interesting pairing, both races could end up being rematches of the 2010 contests.  Former Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter is running for the Democratic nomination in District 1.  She was defeated by sitting Congressman Frank Guinta in 2010.  And Anne Kuster, Bass' previous opponent, has thrown her lot into the District 2 race.  Though both Republicans are vulnerable, both races begin the cycle here at Election Projection as Weak GOP Holds.

    You'll find all the details on the New Hampshire state page.

    Next stop:  New Jersey



    Filed under:  New Hampshire 2012  NH President 2012  NH Governor 2012  NH House 2012 



    posted by Scott Elliott at 2:22pm 12/21/11::

    New Hampshire Race Tracking
    President
    Barack Obama - inc
    vs
    Mitt Romney
    Projected Winner
    Governor (open)
    Ovide Lamontagne
    vs
    Maggie Hassan
    Projected Winner
    House District 1
    Frank Guinta - inc
    vs
    Carol Shea-Porter
    Projected Winner
    House District 2
    Charlie Bass - inc
    vs
    Ann Kuster
    Projected Winner
    2012 Elections On Demand


    Presidential Races
     
    Projections:

    Polls:

    Senate & Governor Races
     
    Projections:

    Polls:

    Competitive House Races
     
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    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political


    Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics


    D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report


    Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas


    David Wissing
    The Hedgehog Report


    Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball


    Richard & Tony
    The Green Papers


    Rose Institute
    Redistricting in America


    Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
    RealClearPolitics

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