In recent days, national polls have moved noticeably in Mitt Romney's direction.  The shift has been striking enough for Jim Geraghty to proclaim, barring some sudden change, Romney will win the popular vote.  He points to Obama's inability to cross a 47% or 48% threshold in any major national poll over the last week.  Sure, a couple of polls have Obama ahead, but even in those, because a larger portion of undecideds, he still fails to get out to that below-50 range.

Job approval numbers reveal more bad news for Obama.  After a short stint above 50% in Gallup's daily approval poll, the President is back down into the mid-40's today (46% at Gallup, 47% at Rasmussen).  History tells us, this late in the election cycle, that level of approval marks an extremely vulnerable POTUS who likely will not gain a second term.

Nate Silver counters, however, maintaining that, based on state polls, Obama's re-election chances are holding firm above an even-money bet.  He doesn't see a real threat given the current crop of battleground state polls.  Mr. Silver is, I'll readily admit, an expert at what he does, and I know I'm on risky ground contradicting his sentiment.

However, he also doesn't appear to put any stock into the idea that polls might be skewed in favor of Obama and other Democratic candidates.  I do.  And the prediction in the title of this post is an offshoot of that belief.  Sifting through the plethora of factors in the run up to Election day - national polling, voter enthusiasm, candidate campaign scheduling, early voting results, to name a few - I have become convinced that Mitt Romney is on the path to victory.

I also know that pollsters don't want to be wrong.  And that's why I believe we're in store for ever-improving Romney numbers in state polls that will be released between now and November 6.  Before next Tuesday, look for Obama's 2.7-point lead in aggregate Ohio polling to shrink to zero, look for a couple polls coming out of Wisconsin to put Romney up by a point or two.  Also, look for polls in North Carolina, Florida, Virginia, Colorado and New Hampshire (except, perhaps, for UNH) to show Romney pulling into a clear lead in those states.

President Obama is on the ropes and fading.  All the signs are there.  All, that is, except for battleground state polls.  No worries there, though, they'll fall in line soon enough.



Filed under: Florida Presidential Race  Colorado Presidential Race  Nevada Presidential Race  New Hampshire Presidential Race  North Carolina Presidential Race  Virginia Presidential Race  Wisconsin Presidential Race  Ohio Presidential Race  2012 Presidential Election  Polling firms 

New Hampshire Presidential Race
We'll get to the House updates in a bit, but first, I wanted to mention that New Hampshire has moved back into President Obama's column today by the slimmest of margins (0.1%).  Given the closeness of the Granite State projection - Romney held a similar 0.1% lead in yesterday's update - it's entirely possible that the state might flip back and forth a couple more times in the final 10 days.

Updated Competitive House Race List
I have spent many hours yesterday and today collecting recent House race polls and pundit rating changes, and there are several shake-ups to report as a result.  The four pundits I use to project House races offered several dozen changes to their House race outlooks.  Overall, the benefit of these changes is distributed very evenly between the parties with 41 updates favoring Democrats and 39 favoring Republicans.  The almost perfectly even split reflects the status-quo nature of this year's House elections.

• Charlie Cook (14 changes) - 9 favor DEMs, 5 favor GOP
• CQ/RollCall (17 changes) - 10 DEMs, 7 GOP
• Larry Sabato (25 changes) - 12 DEMs, 13 GOP
• Stuart Rothenberg (24 changes) - 10 DEMs, 14 GOP

• Florida CD-2:  Steve Southerland-inc vs. Al Lawson
• Florida CD-10:  Dan Webster-inc vs. Val Demings
• Minnesota CD-6:  Michele Bachmann-inc vs. Jim Graves
• Texas CD-14:  Randy Weber vs. Nick Lampson

By the way, if you are on twitter, you can follow me @bloggingcaesar or by clicking the twitter icon in the left sidebar.

But the closeness of this race doesn't stop there.  Check out the state battleground projections here at Election Projection.  You'll find no less than four states in my state-by-state summary projected to go to one candidate or the other by less than one half of one percent.  And among these, two currently lean to Obama, Ohio (+0.46%) and New Hampshire (+0.41%), and two tilt toward Romney, Virginia (+0.24%) and Colorado (+0.10%).  The President owns a slight advantage here since, with these four states split 2-2, he leads the Electoral College projection 281-257. 

Clearly, there's a competitive game afoot.  And so many factors will exert weight on the dynamics of this election down the stretch.  How will Monday's end to the debate season move the needle?  How much, if any at all, are the polls modeling too heavy a Democratic turnout?  What effect will late deciders, who typically break for the challenger in these races, have on the final votes?  Will there be an October surprise to shake things up?  And what about that crucial turnout?  How will each party's enthusiasm, or lack thereof, impact the makeup of 2012's version of the electorate?

I don't have the answers to these questions, but I sure am looking forward to finding them out on Election Day.  Until then, I'll be crunching like crazy the avalanche of polling numbers and pundit predictions to offer you some of the most comprehensive election projections on the web.  We have just 13 days to wait now, so buckle up and hold on.  It's going to be a white-knuckled finish!

In truth, this shift is exactly what Romney had to have to realistically hope to unseat President Obama.  Today's presidential projection is stuck at 281-257 in the President's favor where it has been since Colorado went red last Wednesday.  If Ohio, currently projected at Obama +0.5, were to go red, Romney would take the electoral vote lead, 275-263.  Everyone talks about Ohio as a "must-win" for Romney, however, if you look at the way polls are tightening in some of the other states, Ohio may not be as critical as generally thought.  For instance, if Wisconsin and New Hampshire or Iowa or Nevada go red, Romney wouldn't need Ohio to get to 270.  And there are plenty of other combinations that get Romney into the White House without Ohio.  Given all this, I'd say the more accurate statement would be President Obama doesn't get a second term without Ohio.

DEM House gains shrink
A couple of House generic poll updates have moved the generic congressional factor a bit towards the GOP.  As a result, three current Republican House seats previously projected to be Democratic takeovers, have come back to the red column.  Two seats in California, Dan Lungren's CD-7 seat and Brian Bilbray's CD-52 seat join Bob Dold's CD 10 seat in Illinois in lowering the projected net gain for Democrats to just one seat.  The projected balance of power in the House today stands at 241 Republicans and 194 Democrats.

Where are the next changes in the Electoral College?
Over the last several weeks, with rare exception, the projected Electoral College here at Election Projection has moved back and forth between Obama by 303-235 and Obama by 285-253 as Ohio bobs between blue and red.  Today, I want to take a look at what states beside Ohio might be affected by larger shifts in polling data.  The following lists show the states whose projected margin of victory is 5% or less as of today. First, pickup opportunities for the President:

• Ohio - Romney +0.09% (18 EVs)
• Florida - Romney +1.23% (29)
• North Carolina - Romney +3.44% (15)

For the challenger, however, pickup targets under 5 points abound.

• Iowa - Obama +1.12% (6 EVs)
• Virginia - Obama +2.15% (13)

• New Hampshire - Obama +2.59% (4)
• Colorado - Obama +2.63% (9)
• Michigan - Obama +3.28% (16)
• Nevada - Obama +4.41% (6)
• Wisconsin - Obama +4.83% (10)

One question that has come up in the reaction to the new numbers is about the color of New Hampshire.  Readers rightfully point to a series of polls taken in the Granite State which shows Romney beating Obama.  Certainly, were these polls included in my calculations, New Hampshire would be painted red and Romney would be currently projected to beat Obama overall (270-268!!).  However, as much as I would love to show Romney leading, the polls in question are all too old to be used.  The last one was taken November of last year.

Rest assured, GOP fans, once a new poll comes out of New Hampshire, I will update the projections accordingly.



Filed under:  2012 Presidential Election  New Hampshire 2012  NH President 2012 

That's the expected result, and, like we see with the financial markets where expectations drive prices up or down before economic news is released, I don't see much change in the polls if expectations are met.  However, here are some conceivable scenarios which would move the numbers coming out of New Hampshire.

Parting shot:  No conceivable outcome for Jon Huntsman would impact the race going forward.  In fact, I think it is comical that Huntsman has campaigned all these many months to come in third or fourth in this one primary contest.  But, hey, he's likely to accomplish that feat.  Woot.



Filed under:  2012 GOP Primaries  NH Primary 2012  New Hampshire 2012  NH President 2012 

Reapportionment and Redistricting:  New Hampshire's population change over the decade of the 2000s was in line with the overall change in the US.  Thus, there will still be two congressional seats here.  Interestingly, the population in each existing district grew at almost the same rate.  That means no redistricting is necessary this census cycle.  Add to that a Republican legislature balanced by a Democratic governor, and it is easy to see how New Hampshire's congressional map might be left unchanged for the next 10 years - as it has been for generations.

President:  Since Bill Clinton carried New Hampshire in 1992 and with the exception of George W. Bush's victory here in 2000, the state's partisan trend in presidential elections has moved more and more toward the Democrats.  After the red wave that washed over the country in 2010's mid-term election swept two New Hampshire Democrats out of the House, 2012's outcome has gotten a bit cloudier.  I am starting this race off as a Weak DEM Hold which projects Obama to win New Hampshire's 4 electoral votes but by a smaller margin than four year ago.

Senate:  Kelly Ayotte, a rising star in the Republican Party, won the Senate seat of outgoing Republican Senator Judd Gregg in 2010.  Her first re-election bid comes around in 2016.  Democrat Jeanne Shaheen, former Granite State governor, is the senior senator here.  She first won her seat on Capitol Hill in 2008.  She'll be up for re-election in 2014.

Governor:  New Hampshire and Vermont are the only states that elect governors to two-year terms.  Hence, each election cycle a race for the statehouse takes place.  Democrat John Lynch has won four terms as governor here and would have been heavily favored to win another one had he not decided to step down.  In his absence, a very competitive race looks to be forming.  It's very early, of course, but Democrat Maggie Hassan, currently the only Democrat candidate in the race, is running slightly behind several Republicans according to a July, 2011 poll.  While one poll does not a trend make, it is the only concrete indicator I have of how this race starts out.  Therefore, it starts out here as a Weak GOP Gain.

House:  Over the last several election cycles, New Hampshire has conducted a periodic "clearing of the decks" so to speak in their House delegation.  Before the 2006 elections, both representatives were Republicans.  That year, both Republicans lost.  Four years later, in 2010, both sophomore Democratic representatives met the same outcome.  This time around, both House races again will be competitive with Republican Charlie Bass in District 2 the more vulnerable of the two.  In another interesting pairing, both races could end up being rematches of the 2010 contests.  Former Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter is running for the Democratic nomination in District 1.  She was defeated by sitting Congressman Frank Guinta in 2010.  And Anne Kuster, Bass' previous opponent, has thrown her lot into the District 2 race.  Though both Republicans are vulnerable, both races begin the cycle here at Election Projection as Weak GOP Holds.

You'll find all the details on the New Hampshire state page.

Next stop:  New Jersey



Filed under:  New Hampshire 2012  NH President 2012  NH Governor 2012  NH House 2012