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2012 Ohio Senate Election  
Sherrod Brown - inc  vs.  Josh Mandel
 

General Information

Current Office Holder


Sherrod Brown (D)

Most Recent Election


2006:  Sherrod Brown (D) 56.2% - Mike Dewine (R)-inc 43.8%

Election Timeline


  • December 30, 2011 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • March 6, 2012 - Primary elections
  • November 6, 2012 - Election day
  • Latest Polls and Updates


    Conservative Ranking


    Ohio is the 26th most conservative state, voting for Obama in 2008 but 2.69% more Republican than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Ohio is trending DEMOCRAT in presidential elections.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    Ohio ranks 27th among the 50 states.
     
    Senate Race Data
    Incumbent:  Freshman Senator Sherrod Brown seeks re-election for the first time in 2012.  He faced no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Josh Mandel - Ohio State Treasurer  
  • David Dodt, Sr.
  • Donna Karen Glisman
  • Eric Gregory
  • Michael Pryce
  • DEM Candidates

  • Sherrod Brown - Incumbent  
  • Party nominee -

    Scroll down for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

     
    Ohio Senate Election News
    Wednesday, August 29, 2012
    EP update for August 29 - CT, OH Senate races look suddenly competitive
    The prospects of a GOP majority in the Senate have taken a step back to be sure (thanks, Mr. Akin), but it looks like they may be taking a couple steps forward.  A pair of races is looking much more competitive these days.  The first, in Connecticut, tightened up after the primaries.  Before Republican Linda McMahon and Democrat Chris Murphy won their respective nominations, Murphy held a comfortable lead in the polls.  In both polls released since, McMahon holds a 3-point lead.  After a failed run two years ago against Richard Blumenthal, the wrestling executive looks better positioned this time around.  Win or lose, however, this race is one to keep an eye on.

    The second race is in Ohio where Republican Josh Mandel, a baby-faced rising star in the party, is starting to fulfill the expectations of many state party folks.  They have high hopes for him to make a real battle of his contest against incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown.  After falling behind by double-digits early on, Mandel has enjoyed much improved standing in the latest polls.  Three of the five surveys released in the last two weeks have shown the race to be a dead-heat.

    With Todd Akin tanking a sure GOP takeover in Missouri, Republicans could use a larger playing field of opportunities to reach the goal of a Senate majority.  Thanks to Connecticut and Ohio, it now appears that's just what they have.

    August 29 Election Projection Update
      Electoral Votes Current Previous Change
      Barack Obama 303 303 no change
      Mitt Romney 235 235 no change
      Party switchers:  none
     
      Popular Vote Current Previous Change
      Mitt Romney 49.4 49.3 +0.1
      Barack Obama 49.1 49.2 -0.1
      Party switchers:  none
     
      U.S. Senate Current Previous Change
      Republicans 50 50 no change
      Democrats 48 48 no change
      Independents 2 2 no change
      Party switchers:  none
     
      U.S. House Current Previous Change
      Republicans 241 241 no change
      Democrats 194 194 no change
      Party switchers:  none
     
      Governors Current Previous Change
      Republicans 32 32 no change
      Democrats 17 17 no change
      Independents 1 1 no change
      Party switchers:  none
     
    Next update will be tomorrow.



    Filed under: Connecticut Senate Race  Ohio Senate Race  2012 Projection Updates  Senate '12 



    posted by Scott Elliott at 9:58am 08/29/12::
    Thursday, August 16, 2012
    EP update for August 16 - Purple polls show tight battleground races
    Purple Strategies, a bipartisan organization, is periodically polling 12 battleground states this year.  Yesterday, they released their latest round of surveys for a subset of four states.  Appropriate to their name, the picture their polls paint is very purple, indeed, with Romney holding onto tiny leads in Florida, Ohio and Virginia and Obama ahead by a similar margin in Colorado.  Adding these polls to the calculations leaves the Electoral College projection unchanged.  An interesting tidbit from the poll is that, overall, Romney enjoys a substantial 11-point lead among independents.

    We have another Rasmussen poll today relegated to outlier status.  This one comes out of Ohio where Rasmussen says the Senate race between Democrat Sherrod Brown, the incumbent, and Republican Josh Mandel is tied.  The other two polls in the calculations give Brown double-digit leads.  That means I have to consider Rasmussen's survey an outlier - and, frankly, it's not even close.

    Let me offer a word to my fellow conservatives.  I understand that Rasmussen's polls measure likely voters while most of the rest only measure registered voters.  I also believe Rasmussen's polls to be closer to the actual sentiment of the electorate out there.  That said, I have instituted an outlier test that I must adhere to - even when the outlying poll mirrors my preference for a given race.  Don't worry, though, just as in 2010, the rest of the crowd will migrate toward Rasmussen's view before the votes are cast.  In order to maintain legitimacy, they must.

    August 16 Election Projection Update
      Electoral Votes Current Previous Change
      Barack Obama 332 332 no change
      Mitt Romney 206 206 no change
      Party switchers:  none
     
      Popular Vote Current Previous Change
      Barack Obama 49.9 50.0 -0.1
      Mitt Romney 48.6 48.5 +0.1
      Party switchers:  none
     
      U.S. Senate Current Previous Change
      Republicans 50 50 no change
      Democrats 48 48 no change
      Independents 2 2 no change
      Party switchers:  none
     
      U.S. House Current Previous Change
      Republicans 240 240 no change
      Democrats 196 196 no change
      Party switchers:  none
     
      Governors Current Previous Change
      Republicans 32 32 no change
      Democrats 17 17 no change
      Independents 1 1 no change
      Party switchers:  none
     
    Next update will be tomorrow.



    Filed under: Ohio Senate Race  Colorado Presidential Race  Florida Presidential Race  Ohio Presidential Race  Virginia Presidential Race  2012 Projection Updates  2012 Presidential Election  Polling firms 



    posted by Scott Elliott at 9:59am 08/16/12::
    Thursday, August 2, 2012
    EP update for August 2 - Florida flips again; movement in the House
    Quinnipiac paints very blue picture
    Yesterday, I reported that a Public Policy Polling survey turned Florida red even though it showed President Obama ahead by one.  That flip turned out to be quite brief.  A Quinnipiac poll released just hours after I published yesterday's update gives Obama a much bluer 51-45 advantage and shifts the Sunshine State back into his column.  As a result, he reclaims the 332-206 electoral vote lead he held here at Election Projection before yesterday.

    Quinnipiac's blue brush didn't stop in Florida, and it wasn't limited to the presidential race.  In Pennsylvania and Ohio, the university found Obama ahead by comfortable margins, 11 and 6 points, respectively.  And the senate races in the three battleground states also give Democrats something to cheer.  All three feature Democratic incumbents who enjoy leads ranging from comfortable (seven points for Bill Nelson in Florida) to very comfortable (12 points for Sherrod Brown in Ohio) to landslide numbers (18 points for Bob Casey in Pennsylvania).

    Partisan polls shake up House projections
    Several House polls came to my attention today, all of them partisan, most of them from Democratic polling firms, and two of them that caused seats to flip.  For the Democrats, a poll conducted for incumbent Mike McIntyre shows him with a very large 53-34 lead in North Carolina's CD-7 race.  The lopsided survey is more than enough to compensate for pundit predictions of a Republican takeover - even after EP's adjustment for partisan House polls is applied.

    McIntyre's good fortunes are offset by his Republican colleague representing New York's 19th district.  The consensus of EP's panel of pundits is that Congressman Chris Gibson is very vulnerable, but polling from both parties seems to oppose that view.  His challenger, Democrat Julian Schreibman, released a poll last week showing Gibson ahead by "only" 10.  Gibson's campaign countered with an internal polling giving him a larger 17 point advantage.  The two polls move NY-19 from a weak DEM gain to a mod GOP hold.

    Cruz wins runoff in Texas
    On Tuesday, Tea Party favorite Ted Cruz culminated a notable comeback by taking the Republican nomination in the open Texas Senate race.  He now faces Democrat Paul Sadler in what should be a non-competitive contest.  I've updated EP's Texas Senate election page and Texas House District 23 election page to reflect the runoff results.

    August 2 Election Projection Update
      Electoral Votes Current Previous Change
      Barack Obama 332 332 no change
      Mitt Romney 206 206 no change
      Party switchers:  none
     
      Popular Vote Current Previous Change
      Barack Obama 49.1 49.2 -0.1
      Mitt Romney 49.4 49.3 +0.1
      Party switchers:  none
     
      U.S. Senate Current Previous Change
      Republicans 50 50 no change
      Democrats 48 48 no change
      Independents 2 2 no change
      Party switchers:  none
     
      U.S. House Current Previous Change
      Republicans 239 239 no change
      Democrats 196 196 no change
      Party switchers:  New York CD-19, North Carolina CD-7
     
      Governors Current Previous Change
      Republicans 32 32 no change
      Democrats 17 17 no change
      Independents 1 1 no change
      Party switchers:  none
     
    Next update will be tomorrow.



    Filed under: Florida Presidential Race  Texas Senate Race  Texas House District 23 Race  Florida Senate Race  Pennsylvania Presidential Race  Pennsylvania Senate Race  Ohio Presidential Race  Ohio Senate Race  2012 Projection Updates  2012 Presidential Election  2012 GOP Primaries 



    posted by Scott Elliott at 12:36am 08/02/12::
    Tuesday, December 27, 2011
    Ohio 2012 Preview
    Today our "Tour of the 50 states" takes us to an important battleground state that has been a focal point of the last three presidential elections.  Welcome to Ohio's 2012 preview.

    Reapportionment and Redistricting:  The Buckeye State's population has been slipping relative to the rest of the country.  After the 2000 census, Ohio lost a House seat and saw its House delegation reduced to 18 seats.  Reapportionment after the 2010 census takes another two seats away, leaving 16 for the coming decade.  Republicans were in control of the redistricting process here this time thanks to a strong showing at the state government level in 2010.  With their authority, they have managed to draw a map which should yield a loss of one seat per party based on redistricting alone.  That's a solid outcome for the GOP considering they currently hold a 13-5 district advantage.

    President:  No presidential candidate has won the White House without taking Ohio since Thomas Dewey squeezed out a 0.4% victory here against Franklin Roosevelt way back in 1944.  Undoubtedly, the winner in 2012 must also carry Ohio.  Four years ago, President Obama prevailed by just under 5 points.  Though he seems to be a slight favorite to take the state again in 2012, I think he'll be hard-pressed to expand on that margin of victory.  So the preliminary projection starts off as a Weak DEM Hold.

    Senate:  Six years ago, Sherrod Brown's triumph over Republican incumbent Senator Mike DeWine was part of a strong Democratic showing that won the majority in the Senate.  He's up for re-election for the first time in 2012.  His likely GOP challenger is State Treasurer Josh Mandell, a fast-rising star in Ohio's Republican Party.  On paper, this looks like a classic toss-up race and will probably be one of the closest and most interesting Senate races of the cycle.  At this point, Brown holds a solid lead in early polling, but I fully expect those polls to tighten as the campaigns get rolling.  The initial projection, Weak DEM Hold reflects that sentiment.

    Ohio's other senator, Republican Rob Portman, is serving his freshman term.  He'll be up for re-election in 2016.

    Governor:  Republican John Kasich won a high-profile race for the statehouse in 2010, ousting incumbent Democrat Ted Strickland.  His next election opportunity comes in 2014.

    House:  A summary of the impact of redistricting this cycle in the Buckeye State essentially boils down to this.  Three district pairs were combined into three districts and a new district was carved out of the Columbus urban center.  The first district pair (old Districts 9 and 10) puts two Democrat incumbents at odds.  The second combines two Republican districts (old Districts 3 and 7).  And the third merges Republican Jim Renacci's old District 16 with Democrat Betty Sutton's old District 13.  An early GOP advantage in that race is balanced by the heavily-Democratic new District 3 in Columbus.

    All these changes should add up to each party losing one seat here.  That said, Renacci's race against Sutton as well as two other races for seats currently held by Republicans Bill Johnson (CD-6) and Bob Gibbs (CD-7) are vulnerable to Democratic takeovers in the right political climate.  These three races start out on my hotly-contested House race list as Weak GOP Holds.

    There are plenty more details to be had on the Ohio state page.

    Next stop:  Oklahoma

    Correction:  A statehouse reporter from Ohio informed me of a minor error in my post.  While it is true that since WWII no Republican has won the White House without winning Ohio, Democrat John Kennedy did win in 1960 without carrying the Buckeye State.  Thanks for setting the record straight, Karen.



    Filed under:  Ohio 2012  OH President 2012  OH Senate 2012  OH House 2012 



    posted by Scott Elliott at 3:25pm 12/27/11::

    Ohio Race Tracking
    President
    Barack Obama - inc
    vs
    Mitt Romney
    Projected Winner
    Senate
    Sherrod Brown - inc
    vs
    Josh Mandel
    Projected Winner
    House District 6
    Bill Johnson - inc
    vs
    Charlie Wilson
    Projected Winner
    House District 16
    James Renacci - inc
    vs
    Betty Sue Sutton - inc
    Projected Winner
    2012 Elections On Demand


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    Polls:

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    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political


    Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics


    D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report


    Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas


    David Wissing
    The Hedgehog Report


    Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball


    Richard & Tony
    The Green Papers


    Rose Institute
    Redistricting in America


    Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
    RealClearPolitics

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