Sure, not many delegates were at stake in the Palmetto State, but the course of the whole primary election season may have been reversed there this weekend.  Unless something happens to derail the former Speaker for a third time this election cycle, he has to be considered the favorite to win in Florida. And where it had been Romney's nomination to lose just a few days ago, it is now Gingrich, assuming he indeed wins Florida, who will wear the mantle of frontrunner heading into February.



Filed under:  2012 GOP Primaries  FL Primary 2012  Florida 2012  FL President 2012  SC Primary 2012  South Carolina 2012  SC President 2012 

So what does Gingrich's final lap kick in South Carolina mean for the nomination contest?  One thing it doesn't mean is that Romney has lost his chance to be the nominee.  In fact, I believe it would be hard to demote him from frontrunner status.  He still holds the same advantages that prompted me to declare him the winner while he still enjoyed that substantial lead in South Carolina.  Moreover, despite all the hoopla, just 80 of 2,286 delegates have been spoken for.  We still have a lot of voting left to do.

What Gingrich's performance yesterday does do is make Florida's primary on January 31 an important one.  Had Romney won South Carolina, the race would have been over.  As it turned out, the race is still interesting, or, as Newt Gingrich said in his speech last night, "game on!"  Looking beyond the Sunshine State, it's also important to note that even Florida's result won't seal the deal for the winner, regardless who that turns out to be.  We are now looking at a protracted battle for the right to face President Obama.

In February, the game will be played in seven states representing approximately 200 delegates - or just 9% of the total delegates available.  Add to that the fact that, due to Republican Party rules, these February contests will be proportionately allocated, and it's easy to see how we could still be very much undecided when we get to Super Tuesday on March 6.

One thing's for sure, with three very different men looking at possible paths to the nomination (sorry, Ron Paul fans), Republicans are going to have ample time to figure out who they think the best of the lot is.  I just wish the options were more appealing.



Filed under:  2012 GOP Primaries  SC Primary 2012  South Carolina 2012  SC President 2012  FL Primary 2012  Florida 2012  FL President 2012 

The next step in that process will be tomorrow's South Carolina Republican primary.  In recent days, Gingrich has eradicated a substantial deficit in the polls coming out of the Palmetto State and vaulted into a clear lead.  The momentum from endorsements by Rick Perry and Sarah Palin and strong debate performances have made him the new favorite to win tomorrow.  Whether or not that translates into frontrunner status in other states remains to be seen, but national polls are tightening.

So with no further ado, here are my predictions for the South Carolina Republican primary.

• Newt Gingrich - 41%
• Mitt Romney - 33%
• Ron Paul - 18%
• Rick Santorum - 8%

I'll post an update with a link to the results when it becomes available.

Update:  You can track the results tonight as they come in at this handy website.  Polls close at 7pm Eastern.  And here is a primer to help you interpret early returns: Five counties to watch in South Carolina.



Filed under:  2012 GOP Primaries  SC Primary 2012  South Carolina 2012  SC President 2012  Newt Gingrich  Mitt Romney 

Like most conservative Republicans, I still have serious misgivings about everyone in the dwindling GOP presidential field, those who are still in it and those who have left.  I remain mildly convinced that Romney would have a better chance than Gingrich against President Obama, but if Republicans can take the Senate, maybe it's worth the risk just to see Newt take on Obama in a few debates - at least that may be a silver lining in an otherwise gloomy presidential nominating contest.

Oh, and by the way, Iowa's certified final results show Santorum eclipsing Romney by 34 votes.  That means the final order among the top three, Santorum, Romney and Paul, turned out just the way I predicted.  I thought you might like to know.



Filed under:  2012 GOP Primaries  South Carolina 2012  SC Primary 2012  SC President 2012  Iowa 2012  IA Caucus 2012  IA President 2012 

This week's pro-life forum in South Carolina would seem the perfect venue to convince his pro-life doubters they need not worry about how he would govern with respect to abortion.  However, he will not be in attendance tonight.  In fact, Jennifer Mason, a representative of Personhood USA, the forum's sponsor, reports that Romney did not even bother responding to the invitation to participate.

However, on Twitter and conservative blogs, there is a quite a buzz in support of the Texas Governor.  Could he come back from the brink of nothingness?  Probably not, but I think I might know why he's getting a cyberspace boost.  Unlike the parade of "flavors of the week" we've seen rise and fall in the GOP race over the last couple months, Perry's infamous debate performances ("um, what was that third department?") - not his record or his reputation - caused his collapse.

Now, with acceptable options running thin, active internet conservatives are talking up Perry and his stellar performance as governor of Texas.  Whether he can gain among rank and file Republicans soon enough to make a splash in South Carolina remains to be seen.  But it's becoming clear to me that were it not for several weak showings in the debates, my original estimation of Perry's political fortunes would have come to pass.



Filed under:  2012 GOP Primaries  SC Primary 2012  South Carolina 2012  SC President 2012  Rick Perry 

Reapportionment and Redistricting:  The Palmetto State is one House seat richer after the 2010 census.  Reapportionment allocated seven seats to the state, up from six from the previous census.  With Republicans controlling the redistricting process, South Carolina's new seat will most likely go to the red team.  Early on, there was talk of taking the new map to court because it did not create a second African-American district.  That idea fell flat when Democrat James Clyburn, the incumbent in South Carolina's lone minority majority district, chose not to get behind the legal challenge. 

President:  This is deep red country in presidential races.  The GOP nominee routinely scores convincing wins here.  And though President Obama was able to make a decent showing in 2008, losing by just 9 points, the Palmetto State's electoral votes should go red once again in 2012 by a healthy margin, a Solid GOP Hold.

Senate:  Both South Carolina senators are two-term Republicans.  Lindsey Graham will be up for a third term in 2014 and Jim DeMint's next election will be two years later.

Governor:  Republican Nikki Haley fought off the effects of scandal in 2010 to narrowly win her first term in the statehouse in 2010.  She'll be up for re-election in 2014.

House:  With a new district in the state, Republicans look to increase their 5 to 1 congressional advantage.  None of the existing district races will be very competitive, and the new district, carved out of the Myrtle Beach area, is red enough to be a pretty sure GOP bet.

Check out the South Carolina state page for more information.

Next stop:  South Dakota



Filed under:  South Carolina 2012  SC President 2012  SC House 2012