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2012 Projections


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General Information

Election Timeline

  • January 13, 2012 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • March 13, 2012 - Presidential primaries
  • March 13, 2012 - Primary elections (non-presidential)
  • April 24, 2012 - Primary run-off elections
  • November 6, 2012 - Election day
  • Latest Polls and Updates

    Conservative Ranking

    Alabama is the 5th most conservative state, voting 28.85% more Republican in the 2008 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend

    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Alabama is trending REPUBLICAN in presidential elections.

    GOP Trend Ranking

    Alabama ranks 9th among the 50 states.

    Projected Races
    Click on a race for details

    Presidential Race

    Barack Obama - inc  vs.  Mitt Romney

    Senate Race

    No race in 2012

    Governor Race

    No race in 2012

    Competitive House Races

    No competitive races in 2012

    Other House Races

    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Jo Bonner (R)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 2:  Martha Roby (R)-inc vs. Theresa Ford (D)
  • District 3:  Mike Rogers (R)-inc vs. John Harris (D)
  • District 4:  Robert Aderholt (R)-inc vs. Daniel Boman (D)
  • District 5:  Mo Brooks (R)-inc vs. Charlie Holley (D)
  • District 6:  Spencer Bachus (R)-inc vs. Penny Bailey (D)
  • District 7:  Terri Sewell (D) vs. Donald Chamberlain (R)
    Additional Information
    Current Partisan Breakdown
    National Delegation
      Senators 2 GOP
      Representatives 6 GOP, 1 DEM
    State Government
      Governor GOP
      Lt. Governor GOP
      State Senate - GOP control 22 GOP, 12 DEM, 1 IND
      State House - GOP control 65 GOP, 40 DEM

    Current Office Holders

  • Governor:  Robert Bentley (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2014
  • Lt. Governor:  Kay Ivey (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2014
  • Senior Senator:  Richard Shelby (R) - 6th term, up for re-election in 2016
  • Junior Senator:  Jeff Sessions (R) - 3rd term, up for re-election in 2014
  • House District 1:  Jo Bonner (R) - 5th term
  • House District 2:  Martha Roby (R) - 1st term
  • House District 3:  Mike Rogers (R) - 5th term
  • House District 4:  Robert Aderholt (R) - 8th term
  • House District 5:  Morris Brooks (R) - 1st term
  • House District 6:  Spencer Bachus (R) - 10th term
  • House District 7:  Terri Sewell (D) - 1st term
  • Historical Partisan Snapshot

      Race 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

    President Solid R -- Solid R -- Solid R --

    Class 2 -- Solid R -- -- Solid R --
    Class 3 -- -- Solid R -- -- Solid R

    Governor -- Weak R -- Solid R -- Solid R

    House 5 GOP
    2 DEM
    5 GOP
    2 DEM
    5 GOP
    2 DEM
    5 GOP
    2 DEM
    5 GOP
    2 DEM
    6 GOP
    1 DEM
    CD-1 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-2 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid D Weak R
    CD-3 Solid R Weak R Solid R Solid R Mod R Solid R
    CD-4 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-5 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Weak R Solid R
    CD-6 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-7 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D

    BOLD - party turnover
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%

    Alabama Race Tracking
    Mitt Romney
    Barack Obama
    Projected Winner
    2012 Elections On Demand

    Presidential Races


    Senate & Governor Races


    Competitive House Races

    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political

    Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics

    D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report

    Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas

    David Wissing
    The Hedgehog Report

    Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball

    Richard & Tony
    The Green Papers

    Rose Institute
    Redistricting in America

    Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

    Election Projection Resources
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