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Arkansas  
 
General Information

Election Timeline


  • March 1, 2012 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • May 22, 2012 - Presidential primaries
  • May 22, 2012 - Primary elections (non-presidential)
  • June 12, 2012 - Primary run-off elections
  • November 6, 2012 - Election day
  • Latest Polls and Updates


    Conservative Ranking


    Arkansas is the 7th most conservative state, voting 27.13% more Republican in the 2008 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Arkansas is trending REPUBLICAN in presidential elections.
    NOTE:  Arkansas' GOP trend is somewhat inflated due to the presence of former Gov. Bill Clinton on the ballot in 1992 and 1996.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    Arkansas ranks first among the 50 states.

    Projected Races
    Click on a race for details

    Presidential Race


    Barack Obama - inc  vs.  Mitt Romney

    Senate Race


    No race in 2012

    Governor Race


    No race in 2012

    Competitive House Races


  • District 4:  OPEN:  Gene Jeffress  vs.  Thomas Cotton
  • Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Rick Crawford (R)-inc vs. Scott Ellington (D)
  • District 2:  Tim Griffin (R)-inc vs. Herb Rule, III (D)
  • District 3:  Steve Womack (R)-inc vs. Kenneth Aden (D)
  •  
    Additional Information
    Current Partisan Breakdown
     
    National Delegation
      Senators 1 GOP, 1 DEM
      Representatives 3 GOP, 1 DEM
    State Government
      Governor DEM
      Lt. Governor GOP
      State Senate - DEM control 15 GOP, 20 DEM
      State House - DEM control 46 GOP, 53 DEM, 1 vacant

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Mike Beebe (D) - 2nd term, term-limited in 2014
  • Lt. Governor:  Mark Darr (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2014
  • Senior Senator:  Mark Pryor (D) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2014
  • Junior Senator:  John Boozman (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2016
  • House District 1:  Rick Crawford (R) - 1st term
  • House District 2:  Tim Griffin (R) - 1st term
  • House District 3:  Steve Womack (R) - 1st term
  • House District 4:  Mike Ross (D) - 6th term (retiring)
  • Historical Partisan Snapshot


     
      Race 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

    President Mod R -- Mod R -- Solid R --

    Senate
    Class 2 -- Mod D -- -- Solid D --
    Class 3 -- -- Strong D -- -- Solid R

    Governor -- Mod R -- Strong D -- Solid D

    House 1 GOP
    3 DEM
    1 GOP
    3 DEM
    1 GOP
    3 DEM
    1 GOP
    3 DEM
    1 GOP
    3 DEM
    3 GOP
    1 DEM
    CD-1 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Mod R
    CD-2 Solid D Solid D Weak D Solid D Solid D Solid R
    CD-3 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-4 Weak D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D

    BOLD - party turnover
     
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%
  •  

    Arkansas Race Tracking
    President
    Mitt Romney
    vs
    Barack Obama - inc
    Projected Winner
    House District 4 (open)
    Gene Jeffress
    vs
    Thomas Cotton
    Projected Winner
    2012 Elections On Demand


    Presidential Races
     
    Projections:

    Polls:

    Senate & Governor Races
     
    Projections:

    Polls:

    Competitive House Races
     
    Projections:

    Polls:
    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political


    Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics


    D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report


    Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas


    David Wissing
    The Hedgehog Report


    Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball


    Richard & Tony
    The Green Papers


    Rose Institute
    Redistricting in America


    Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
    RealClearPolitics

    Election Projection Resources
     
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    e-mail Scott at:
    electionprojection-at-
    gmail <put a period here> com
     

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