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Arizona  
 
General Information

Election Timeline


  • February 28, 2012 - Presidential primaries
  • March 9, 2012 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • August 28, 2012 - Primary elections (non-presidential)
  • November 6, 2012 - Election day
  • Latest Polls and Updates


    Conservative Ranking


    Arizona is the 18th most conservative state, voting 15.75% more Republican in the 2008 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Arizona is trending REPUBLICAN in presidential elections.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    Arizona ranks 19th among the 50 states.
     

    Projected Races
    Click on a race for details

    Presidential Race


    Barack Obama - inc  vs.  Mitt Romney

    Senate Race


    OPEN:  Jeff Flake  vs.  Richard Carmona

    Governor Race


    No race in 2012

    Competitive House Races


  • District 1:  NEW SEAT:  Ann Kirkpatrick  vs.  Jonathan Paton
  • District 9:  NEW SEAT:  Kyrsten Sinema  vs.  Vernon Parker
  • Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 2:  Ron Barber (D)-inc vs. Martha McSally (R) - possibly competitive
  • District 3:  Raul Grijalva (D)-inc vs. Gabriela Saucedo Mercer (R)
  • District 4:  Paul Gosar (R)-inc, old Dist 1 vs. Johnnie Robinson (D)
  • District 5:  OPEN:  Matt Salmon (R) vs. Spencer Morgan (D)
  • District 6:  MERGED:  David Schweikert (R)-inc, old Dist 5 vs. Matthew Jette (D)
  • District 7:  Ed Pastor (D)-inc vs. Joe Cobb (R)
  • District 8:  Trent Franks (R)-inc vs. Gene Scharer (D)
  •  
    Additional Information
    Current Partisan Breakdown
     
    National Delegation
      Senators 2 GOP
      Representatives 5 GOP, 3 DEM
    State Government
      Governor GOP
      State Senate - GOP control 21 GOP, 9 DEM
      State House - GOP control 40 GOP, 20 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Jan Brewer (R) - 2nd term, up for election in 2014
  • Senior Senator:  John McCain (R) - 5th term, up for re-election in 2016
  • Junior Senator:  Jon Kyl (R) - 3rd term, not seeking re-election in 2012
  • House District 1:  Paul Gosar (R) - 1st term (running in CD-4)
  • House District 2:  Trent Franks (R) - 5th term (running in CD-8)
  • House District 3:  Ben Quayle (R) - 1st term (lost in CD-6 primary)
  • House District 4:  Ed Pastor (D) - 11th term (running in CD-7)
  • House District 5:  David Schweikert (R) - 1st term (running in CD-6)
  • House District 6:  Jeffrey Flake (R) - 6th term (running for Senate)
  • House District 7:  Raul Grijalva (D) - 5th term (running in CD-3)
  • House District 8:  Ron Barber (D) - 5th term (running in CD-2)
  • Historical Partisan Snapshot


     
      Race 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2008

    President Mod R -- Strong R -- Mod R --

    Senate
    Class 1 Solid R -- -- Mod R -- --
    Class 3 -- -- Solid R -- -- Solid R

    Governor -- Weak D -- Solid D -- Strong R

    House 4 GOP
    2 DEM
    6 GOP
    2 DEM
    6 GOP
    2 DEM
    4 GOP
    4 DEM
    3 GOP
    5 DEM
    5 GOP
    3 DEM
    CD-1 Mod R Weak R Solid R Mod R Solid D Mod R
    CD-2 Solid D Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-3 Solid R Weak R Solid R Solid R Strong R Strong R
    CD-4 Solid R Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-5 Solid D Solid R Solid R Weak D Mod D Mod R
    CD-6 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-7 NA Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Mod D
    CD-8 NA Solid R Solid R Mod D Strong D Weak D

    BOLD - party turnover
     
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%
  •  

    Arizona Race Tracking
    President
    Barack Obama - inc
    vs
    Mitt Romney
    Projected Winner
    Senate (open)
    Richard Carmona
    vs
    Jeff Flake
    Projected Winner
    House District 1 (new)
    Ann Kirkpatrick
    vs
    Jonathan Paton
    Projected Winner
    House District 9 (new)
    Kyrsten Sinema
    vs
    Vernon Parker
    Projected Winner
    2012 Elections On Demand


    Presidential Races
     
    Projections:

    Polls:

    Senate & Governor Races
     
    Projections:

    Polls:

    Competitive House Races
     
    Projections:

    Polls:
    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political


    Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics


    D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report


    Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas


    David Wissing
    The Hedgehog Report


    Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball


    Richard & Tony
    The Green Papers


    Rose Institute
    Redistricting in America


    Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
    RealClearPolitics

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    e-mail Scott at:
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