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2012 Projections


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General Information

Election Timeline

  • February 28, 2012 - Presidential primaries
  • March 9, 2012 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • August 28, 2012 - Primary elections (non-presidential)
  • November 6, 2012 - Election day
  • Latest Polls and Updates

    Conservative Ranking

    Arizona is the 18th most conservative state, voting 15.75% more Republican in the 2008 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend

    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Arizona is trending REPUBLICAN in presidential elections.

    GOP Trend Ranking

    Arizona ranks 19th among the 50 states.

    Projected Races
    Click on a race for details

    Presidential Race

    Barack Obama - inc  vs.  Mitt Romney

    Senate Race

    OPEN:  Jeff Flake  vs.  Richard Carmona

    Governor Race

    No race in 2012

    Competitive House Races

  • District 1:  NEW SEAT:  Ann Kirkpatrick  vs.  Jonathan Paton
  • District 9:  NEW SEAT:  Kyrsten Sinema  vs.  Vernon Parker
  • Other House Races

    Projected winner listed first
  • District 2:  Ron Barber (D)-inc vs. Martha McSally (R) - possibly competitive
  • District 3:  Raul Grijalva (D)-inc vs. Gabriela Saucedo Mercer (R)
  • District 4:  Paul Gosar (R)-inc, old Dist 1 vs. Johnnie Robinson (D)
  • District 5:  OPEN:  Matt Salmon (R) vs. Spencer Morgan (D)
  • District 6:  MERGED:  David Schweikert (R)-inc, old Dist 5 vs. Matthew Jette (D)
  • District 7:  Ed Pastor (D)-inc vs. Joe Cobb (R)
  • District 8:  Trent Franks (R)-inc vs. Gene Scharer (D)
    Additional Information
    Current Partisan Breakdown
    National Delegation
      Senators 2 GOP
      Representatives 5 GOP, 3 DEM
    State Government
      Governor GOP
      State Senate - GOP control 21 GOP, 9 DEM
      State House - GOP control 40 GOP, 20 DEM

    Current Office Holders

  • Governor:  Jan Brewer (R) - 2nd term, up for election in 2014
  • Senior Senator:  John McCain (R) - 5th term, up for re-election in 2016
  • Junior Senator:  Jon Kyl (R) - 3rd term, not seeking re-election in 2012
  • House District 1:  Paul Gosar (R) - 1st term (running in CD-4)
  • House District 2:  Trent Franks (R) - 5th term (running in CD-8)
  • House District 3:  Ben Quayle (R) - 1st term (lost in CD-6 primary)
  • House District 4:  Ed Pastor (D) - 11th term (running in CD-7)
  • House District 5:  David Schweikert (R) - 1st term (running in CD-6)
  • House District 6:  Jeffrey Flake (R) - 6th term (running for Senate)
  • House District 7:  Raul Grijalva (D) - 5th term (running in CD-3)
  • House District 8:  Ron Barber (D) - 5th term (running in CD-2)
  • Historical Partisan Snapshot

      Race 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2008

    President Mod R -- Strong R -- Mod R --

    Class 1 Solid R -- -- Mod R -- --
    Class 3 -- -- Solid R -- -- Solid R

    Governor -- Weak D -- Solid D -- Strong R

    House 4 GOP
    2 DEM
    6 GOP
    2 DEM
    6 GOP
    2 DEM
    4 GOP
    4 DEM
    3 GOP
    5 DEM
    5 GOP
    3 DEM
    CD-1 Mod R Weak R Solid R Mod R Solid D Mod R
    CD-2 Solid D Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-3 Solid R Weak R Solid R Solid R Strong R Strong R
    CD-4 Solid R Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-5 Solid D Solid R Solid R Weak D Mod D Mod R
    CD-6 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-7 NA Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Mod D
    CD-8 NA Solid R Solid R Mod D Strong D Weak D

    BOLD - party turnover
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%

    Arizona Race Tracking
    Barack Obama - inc
    Mitt Romney
    Projected Winner
    Senate (open)
    Richard Carmona
    Jeff Flake
    Projected Winner
    House District 1 (new)
    Ann Kirkpatrick
    Jonathan Paton
    Projected Winner
    House District 9 (new)
    Kyrsten Sinema
    Vernon Parker
    Projected Winner
    2012 Elections On Demand

    Presidential Races


    Senate & Governor Races


    Competitive House Races

    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political

    Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics

    D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report

    Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas

    David Wissing
    The Hedgehog Report

    Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball

    Richard & Tony
    The Green Papers

    Rose Institute
    Redistricting in America

    Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

    Election Projection Resources
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