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Election Timeline
February 28, 2012 - Presidential primaries
March 9, 2012 - Deadline to file for candidacy
August 28, 2012 - Primary elections (non-presidential)
November 6, 2012 - Election day
Latest Polls and Updates
Conservative Ranking
Arizona is the 18th most conservative state, voting
15.75% more Republican in the 2008 presidential elections than the national average.
Partisan Trend
Based on voting patterns since 1992, Arizona is trending REPUBLICAN in presidential
elections.
GOP Trend Ranking
Arizona ranks 19th among the 50 states.
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Race for the White House
GOP Candidates
Newt Gingrich - Former U.S. Speaker of the House from Georgia
Ron Paul - U.S. Representative from Texas
Mitt Romney - Former Governor of Massachusetts
Rick Santorum - Former Senator from Pennsylvania
DEM Candidates
Barack Obama - President of the United States
Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.
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OPEN SEAT: Three-term Republican incumbent Jon Kyl is not seeking re-election in 2012.
GOP Candidates
Jeff Flake - U.S. Representative from Arizona
Wil Cardon - Real Estate Investor
Bryan Hackbarth - Businessman
John Lyon
DEM Candidates
Don Bivens - Former Democratic State Party Chair
Sheila Bilyeu
Richard Carmona - Former U.S. Surgeon General
Sydney Dudikoff
David Ruben
Warren Stewart, Jr.
Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.
Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries
Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries
Preliminary Projection - Mod GOP Hold
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District 1
OPEN SEAT: Due to redistricting, incumbent Republican Paul Gosar is running for re-election in the new District 4.
GOP Candidates
Doug McKee
Jonathan Paton - Former Arizona State Senator
Douglas Wade
DEM Candidates
Wenona Baldenegro
Anne Kirkpatrick - Former U.S. Representative from Arizona
Miguel Olivas
Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.
Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries
Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries
Preliminary Projection - Weak DEM Gain
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District 2
OPEN SEAT: Democratic incumbent Gabriel Giffords resigned on January 25, 2012. A special election
will be held on June 12, 2012.
GOP Candidates
Charles Black
Adam Hansen
John Lervoid
Monty Nafoosi
Dave Sitton
DEM Candidates
Paula Aboud - Arizona State Senator
Ron Barber
Matt Heinz - Arizona State Representative
Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.
Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries
Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries
Preliminary Projection - Weak DEM Hold
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District 9
NEW SEAT: Arizona gained one seat as a result of reapportionment after the 2010 census.
GOP Candidates
Travis Grantham
Wendy Rogers
DEM Candidates
Andrei Cherny
David Schapira - Arizona State Senator
Kyrsten Sinema - Arizona State Senator
Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.
Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries
Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries
Preliminary Projection - Weak DEM Gain
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Projected winner listed first
District 3: Raul Grijalva (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
District 4: Paul Gosar? (R)-inc, old Dist 1 vs. ??? (D)
District 5: OPEN: Matt Salmon (R) vs. ??? (D)
District 6: MERGED: Ben Quayle? (R)-inc (currently unopposed)
District 7: Ed Pastor? (D)-inc vs. ??? (R) (possibly competitive)
District 8: Trent Franks (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)
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Current Partisan Breakdown
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| National Delegation |
| Senators |
2 GOP |
| Representatives |
5 GOP, 3 DEM |
| State Government |
| Governor |
GOP |
| State Senate - GOP control |
21 GOP, 9 DEM |
| State House - GOP control |
40 GOP, 20 DEM |
Current Office Holders
Governor: Jan Brewer (R) - 2nd term, up for election in 2014
Senior Senator: John McCain (R) - 5th term, up for re-election in 2016
Junior Senator: Jon Kyl (R) - 3rd term, not seeking re-election in 2012
House District 1: Paul Gosar (R) - 1st term
House District 2: Trent Franks (R) - 5th term
House District 3: Ben Quayle (R) - 1st term
House District 4: Ed Pastor (D) - 11th term
House District 5: David Schweikert (R) - 1st term (running in District 6)
House District 6: Jeffrey Flake (R) - 6th term (running for Senate)
House District 7: Raul Grijalva (D) - 5th term
House District 8: Gabrielle Giffords (D) - 3rd term
Historical Partisan Snapshot
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| Race |
2000 |
2002 |
2004 |
2006 |
2008 |
2008 |
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| President |
Mod R |
-- |
Strong R |
-- |
Mod R |
-- |
Senate |
| Class 1 |
Solid R |
-- |
-- |
Mod R |
-- |
-- |
| Class 3 |
-- |
-- |
Solid R |
-- |
-- |
Solid R |
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| Governor |
-- |
Weak D |
-- |
Solid D |
-- |
Strong R |
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| House |
4 GOP
2 DEM |
6 GOP
2 DEM |
6 GOP
2 DEM |
4 GOP
4 DEM |
3 GOP
5 DEM |
5 GOP
3 DEM |
| CD-1 |
Mod R |
Weak R |
Solid R |
Mod R |
Solid D |
Mod R |
| CD-2 |
Solid D |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
| CD-3 |
Solid R |
Weak R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Strong R |
Strong R |
| CD-4 |
Solid R |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
| CD-5 |
Solid D |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Weak D |
Mod D |
Mod R |
| CD-6 |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Solid R |
| CD-7 |
NA |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Solid D |
Mod D |
| CD-8 |
NA |
Solid R |
Solid R |
Mod D |
Strong D |
Weak D |
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BOLD - party turnover
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Race ratings:
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"Weak" - less than 5%
"Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
"Strong" - 10% to 15%
"Solid" - greater than 15%
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