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California  
 
General Information

Election Timeline

  • March 9, 2012 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • June 5, 2012 - Presidential primaries
  • June 5, 2012 - Primary elections (non-presidential)
  • November 6, 2012 - Election day
    •

    Latest Polls and Updates

    Conservative Ranking

    California is the 9th least conservative state, voting 16.76% less Republican in the 2008 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend

    Based on voting patterns since 1992, California is trending DEMOCRAT in presidential elections.

    GOP Trend Ranking

    California ranks 45th among the 50 states.
     


    Presidential Race

    Race for the White House

    GOP Candidates
  • Newt Gingrich - Former U.S. Speaker of the House from Georgia
  • Ron Paul - U.S. Representative from Texas
  • Mitt Romney - Former Governor of Massachusetts
  • Rick Santorum - Former Senator from Pennsylvania

    • DEM Candidates

  • Barack Obama - President of the United States

    • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

     
    Senate Race
    Incumbent:  Democrat Dianne Feinstein seeks a fifth term in 2012.  She faces only minor primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Elizabeth Emken
  • Rogelio Gloria
  • Keith Holbrook
  • Daniel Hughes
  • Dirk Konopik
  • Robert Lauten
  • Jonathan Owens
  • Nachum Shifren
  • Michael Stollaire
  • Orly Taitz

    • DEM Candidates

  • Dianne Feinstein - Incumbent
  • David Levitt

    • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Solid DEM Hold

     
    Governor's Race
    No race in 2012
     
    Competitive House Races
    District 7
    Incumbent:  Republican Dan Lungren, old District 3, is up for a tenth term in 2012.  He currently faces no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Dan Lungren - Incumbent, old District 3

    • DEM Candidates

  • Amerish Bera

    • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Weak GOP Hold

     

    District 10
    Incumbent:  Republican Jeff Denham, old District 19, is up for a second term in 2012.  He currently faces no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Jeff Denham

    • DEM Candidates

  • Mike Barkley
  • Jose Hernandez

    • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Weak GOP Hold

     

    District 21
    NEW SEAT:  Even though California did not gain any seats after the 2010 Census, this district was redrawn so that no incumbent chose to run here.  Therefore, I am considering it a new seat.

    GOP Candidates

  • David Valadao - California State Assemblyman

    • DEM Candidates

  • John Hernandez

    • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Weak GOP Gain

     

    District 26
    OPEN SEAT:  Republican incumbent Elton Gallegly, old District 24, is retiring.  He will not seek a 15th term in 2012.

    GOP Candidates

  • Linda Parks
  • Tony Strickland - California State Senator

    • DEM Candidates

  • Jess Herrera - Oxnard Harbor District President
  • David Pollock - Moorpark City Councilman
  • Zeke Ruelas
  • David Thayne

    • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Weak DEM Gain

     

    District 31
    Incumbent:  Republican Gary Miller, old District 42, is up for an eighth term in 2012.  He faces primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Gary Miller - Incumbent, old District 42
  • Bob Dutton - California State Senator

    • DEM Candidates

  • Pete Aguilar - Mayor of Redlands
  • Justin Kim
  • Rita Ramirez-Dean
  • Renea Wickman

    • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Weak DEM Gain

     

    District 52
    Incumbent:  Republican Brian Bilbray, old District 52, is up for a fifth term in 2012.  He faces primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Brian Bilbray - Incumbent, old District 52
  • Wayne Iverson
  • John Stahl

    • DEM Candidates

  • Scott Peters
  • Lori Saldana - Former California State Assemblywoman

    • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Weak GOP Hold

     
    Other House Races
    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  OPEN: ??? (R) vs. James Reed (D)
  • District 2:  OPEN: Daniel Roberts (R) vs. ??? (D)
  • District 3:  John Garamendi (D)-inc, old Dist 10 vs. ??? (R)
  • District 4:  Tom McClintock (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)
  • District 5:  Michael Thompson (D)-inc  (currently unopposed)
  • District 6:  Doris Matsui (D)-inc, old Dist 5 vs. Erik Smitt (R)
  • District 8:  OPEN: ??? (R) vs. ??? (D)
  • District 9:  Jerry McNerney (D)-inc, old Dist 11 vs. ??? (R)
  • District 11:  George Miller (D)-inc, old Dist 7  (currently unopposed)
  • District 12:  Nancy Pelosi (D)-inc, old Dist 8  (currently unopposed)
  • District 13:  Barbara Lee (D)-inc, old Dist 9 vs. ??? (R)
  • District 14:  Jackie Speier (D)-inc, old Dist 12  (currently unopposed)
  • District 15:  Pete Stark (D)-inc, old Dist 13  (currently unopposed)
  • District 16:  Jim Costa (D)-inc, old Dist 20 vs. ??? (R)
  • District 17:  Mike Honda (D)-inc, old Dist 15  (currently unopposed)
  • District 18:  Anna Eshoo (D)-inc, old Dist 14 vs. Mike Berryhill, Sr. (R)
  • District 19:  Zoe Lofgren? (D)-inc, old Dist 16  (currently unopposed)
  • District 20:  Sam Farr? (D)-inc, old Dist 17 vs. Clint Olivier (R)
  • District 22:  Devin Nunes? (R)-inc, old Dist 21  (currently unopposed)
  • District 23:  Kevin McCarthy (R)-inc  (currently unopposed)
  • District 24:  Lois Capps (D)-inc, old Dist 23 vs. ??? (R)
  • District 25:  Buck McKeon? (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)
  • District 27:  Judy Chu (D)-inc, old Dist 32  (currently unopposed)
  • District 28:  Adam Schiff? (D)-inc, old Dist 29  (currently unopposed)
  • District 29:  NEW SEAT: Tony Cardenas (D) vs. David Hernandez (R)
  • District 30:  MERGED: Brad Sherman (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
  • District 32:  Grace Napolitano? (D)-inc, old Dist 38 vs. David Miller (R)
  • District 33:  Henry Waxman? (D)-inc, old Dist 30 vs. ??? (R)
  • District 34:  Xavier Bercerra (D)-inc, old Dist 31  (currently unopposed)
  • District 35:  Joe Baca? (D)-inc, old Dist 43  (currently unopposed)
  • District 36:  Mary Bono Mack (R)-inc, old Dist 45 vs. Raul Ruiz (D)
  • District 37:  Karen Bass? (D)-inc, old Dist 33 vs. David Crowley, II (R)
  • District 38:  Linda Sanchez? (D)-inc, old Dist 39 vs. ??? (R)
  • District 39:  Ed Royce? (R)-inc, old Dist 40 vs. Jay Chen (D)
  • District 40:  Lucille Royball-Allard? (D)-inc. old Dist 34  (currently unopposed)
  • District 41:  NEW SEAT: ??? (D) vs. ??? (R)
  • District 42:  Ken Calvert (R)-inc, old Dist 44  (currently unopposed)
  • District 43:  Maxine Waters (D)-inc, old Dist 35  (currently unopposed)
  • District 44:  MERGED: Laura Richardson (D)-inc, old Dist 37 vs. Jeff Miller (R)-inc
  • District 45:  John Campbell? (R)-inc, old Dist 48 vs. Sukhee Kang (D)
  • District 46:  Loretta Sanchez (D)-inc, old Dist 47 vs. Jerry Hayden (R)
  • District 47:  NEW SEAT: ??? (D) vs. ??? (R)
  • District 48:  Dana Rohrbacher? (R)-inc, old Dist 46  (currently unopposed)
  • District 49:  Darrell Issa (R)-inc vs. Jerry Tetalman (D)
  • District 50:  Duncan D Hunter? (R)-inc, old Dist 52 vs. Dave Secor (D)
  • District 51:  OPEN: ??? (D)  (currently unopposed)
  • District 53:  Susan Davis (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
    •  
    Additional Information
    Current Partisan Breakdown
     
    National Delegation
      Senators 2 DEM
      Representatives 19 GOP, 34 DEM
    State Government
      Governor DEM
      Lt. Governor DEM
      State Senate - DEM control 15 GOP, 25 DEM
      State Assembly - DEM control 28 GOP, 52 DEM

    Current Office Holders

  • Governor:  Jerry Brown (D) - 3rd non-consecutive term, up for re-election in 2014
  • Lt. Governor:  Gavin Newsom - 1st term, up for re-election in 2014
  • Senior Senator:  Dianne Feinstein (D) - 4th term, up for re-election in 2012
  • Junior Senator:  Barbara Boxer (D) - 4th term, up for re-election in 2016
  • House District 1:  Michael Thompson (D) - 7th term
  • House District 2:  Wally Herger (R) - 13th term
  • House District 3:  Daniel Lungren (R) - 9th term
  • House District 4:  Tom McClintock (R) - 2nd term
  • House District 5:  Doris Matsui (D) - 4th term
  • House District 6:  Lynn Woolsey (D) - 10th term
  • House District 7:  George Miller (D) - 19th term
  • House District 8:  Nancy Pelosi (D) - 13th term
  • House District 9:  Barbara Lee (D) - 7th term
  • House District 10:  John Garamendi (D) - 2nd term
  • House District 11:  Jerry McNerney (D) - 3rd term
  • House District 12:  Jackie Speier (D) - 3rd term
  • House District 13:  Pete Stark (D) - 20th term
  • House District 14:  Anna Eshoo (D) - 10th term
  • House District 15:  Michael Honda (D) - 6th term
  • House District 16:  Zoe Lofgren (D) - 9th term
  • House District 17:  Sam Farr (D) - 10th term
  • House District 18:  Dennis Cardoza (D) - 5th term
  • House District 19:  Jeff Denham (R) - 1st term
  • House District 20:  Jim Costa (D) - 4th term
  • House District 21:  Devin Nunes (R) - 5th term
  • House District 22:  Kevin McCarthy (R) - 3rd term
  • House District 23:  Lois Capps (D) - 7th term
  • House District 24:  Elton Gallegly (R) - 14th term
  • House District 25:  Buck McKeon (R) - 10th term
  • House District 26:  David Dreier (R) - 16th term
  • House District 27:  Brad Sherman (D) - 8th term
  • House District 28:  Howard Berman (D) - 15th term
  • House District 29:  Adam Schiff (D) - 6th term
  • House District 30:  Henry Waxman (D) - 19th term
  • House District 31:  Xavier Becerra (D) - 10th term
  • House District 32:  Judy Chu (D) - 2nd term
  • House District 33:  Karen Bass (D) - 1st term
  • House District 34:  Lucille Royball-Allard (D) - 10th term
  • House District 35:  Maxine Waters (D) - 11th term
  • House District 36:  Janice Hahn (D) - 1st term (partial)
  • House District 37:  Laura Richardson (D) - 3rd term
  • House District 38:  Grace Napolitano (D) - 7th term
  • House District 39:  Linda Sanchez (D) - 5th term
  • House District 40:  Edward Royce (R) - 8th term
  • House District 41:  Jerry Lewis (R) - 17th term
  • House District 42:  Gary Miller (R) - 7th term
  • House District 43:  Joe Baca (D) - 7th term
  • House District 44:  Kenneth Calvert (R) - 10th term
  • House District 45:  Mary Bono Mack (R) - 7th term
  • House District 46:  Dana Rohrabacher (R) - 12th term
  • House District 47:  Loretta Sanchez (D) - 8th term
  • House District 48:  John Campbell (R) - 4th term
  • House District 49:  Darrell Issa (R) - 6th term
  • House District 50:  Brian Bilbray (R) - 4th term
  • House District 51:  Bob Filner (D) - 10th term
  • House District 52:  Duncan D. Hunter (R) - 2nd term
  • House District 53:  Susan Davis (D) - 6th term

    • Historical Partisan Snapshot
     
      Race 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
    President Strong D -- Mod D -- Solid D --
    Senate
    Class 1 Solid D -- -- Solid D -- --
    Class 3 -- -- Solid D -- -- Strong D
    Governor -- Mod D -- Solid R -- Strong D
    House 20 R
    32 D    		 20 R
    33 D    		 20 R
    33 D    		 19 R
    34 D    		 19 R
    34 D    		 19 R
    34 D
    CD-1 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-2 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Strong R
    CD-3 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Mod R Mod R
    CD-4 Solid R Solid R Solid R Weak R Weak R Solid R
    CD-5 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-6 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-7 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-8 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-9 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-10 Mod D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-11 Solid R Solid R Solid R Mod D Strong D Weak D
    CD-12 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-13 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-14 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-15 Strong D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-16 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-17 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-18 Solid D Mod D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-19 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-20 Mod D Solid D Mod D Solid D Solid D Weak D
    CD-21 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-22 Mod D Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-23 Strong R Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-24 Solid D Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-25 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Strong R Solid R
    CD-26 Solid D Solid R Strong R Solid R Strong R Solid R
    CD-27 Mod D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-28 Solid R Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-29 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-30 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-31 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-32 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-33 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-34 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-35 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-36 Weak D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-37 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-38 Weak R Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-39 Solid R Strong D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-40 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-41 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-42 Solid D Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-43 Solid R Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-44 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Weak R Strong R
    CD-45 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Strong R
    CD-46 Solid D Solid R Solid R Solid R Strong R Solid R
    CD-47 Solid R Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Strong D
    CD-48 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Strong R Solid R
    CD-49 Weak D Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-50 Solid D Solid R Solid R Strong R Weak R Solid R
    CD-51 Solid R Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-52 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-53 NA Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    BOLD - party turnover
     
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%
    •
     

    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political

     Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics

     D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report

     Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas

     David Wissing
    The Hedgehog Report

     Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball

     Richard & Tony
    The Green Papers

     Rose Institute
    Redistricting in America

     Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
    RealClearPolitics
    2012 Projections, State-by-State

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