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2012 Projections

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California  
 
General Information

Election Timeline


  • March 9, 2012 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • June 5, 2012 - Presidential primaries
  • June 5, 2012 - Primary elections (non-presidential)
  • November 6, 2012 - Election day
  • Latest Polls and Updates


    Conservative Ranking


    California is the 9th least conservative state, voting 16.76% less Republican in the 2008 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, California is trending DEMOCRAT in presidential elections.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    California ranks 45th among the 50 states.
     

    Projected Races
    Click on a race for details

    Presidential Race


    Barack Obama - inc  vs.  Mitt Romney

    Senate Race


    Diane Feinstein - inc  vs.  Elizabeth Emken

    Governor Race


    No race in 2012

    Competitive House Races


  • District 7:  Dan Lungren - inc  vs.  Amerish Bera
  • District 9:  Jerry McNerney - inc  vs.  Ricky Gill
  • District 10:  Jeff Denham - inc  vs.  Jose Hernandez
  • District 24:  Lois Capps - inc  vs.  Abel Maldonado
  • District 26:  OPEN:  Tony Strickland  vs.  Julia Brownley
  • District 36:  Mary Bono Mack - inc, old Dist 45  vs.  Raul Ruiz
  • District 41:  NEW SEAT:  Mark Takano  vs.  John Tavaglione
  • District 52:  Brian Bilbray - inc  vs.  Scott Peters
  • Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  OPEN:  Doug LaMalfa (R) vs. James Reed (D)
  • District 2:  OPEN:  Jared Huffman (D) vs. Daniel Roberts (R)
  • District 3:  John Garamendi (D)-inc vs. Kimberly Vann (R)
  • District 4:  Tom McClintock (R)-inc vs. Jack Uppal (D)
  • District 5:  Michael Thompson (D)-inc vs. Randy Loftin (R)
  • District 6:  Doris Matsui (D)-inc, old Dist 5 vs. Joseph McCray, Sr. (R)
  • District 8:  OPEN:  Paul Cook (R) vs. Gregg Imus (R)
  • District 11:  George Miller (D)-inc, old Dist 7 vs. Virginia Fuller (R)
  • District 12:  Nancy Pelosi (D)-inc, old Dist 8 vs. John Dennis (R)
  • District 13:  Barbara Lee (D)-inc, old Dist 9  (unopposed)
  • District 14:  Jackie Speier (D)-inc, old Dist 12 vs. Deborah Bacigalupi (R)
  • District 15:  Pete Stark (D)-inc, old Dist 13 vs. Eric Swalwell (D)
  • District 16:  J Costa (D)-inc, old Dist 20 vs. B Whelan (R) - possibly competitive
  • District 17:  Mike Honda (D)-inc, old Dist 15 vs. Evelyn Li (R)
  • District 18:  Anna Eshoo (D)-inc, old Dist 14 vs. David Chapman (R)
  • District 19:  Zoe Lofgren (D)-inc, old Dist 16 vs. Robert Murray (R)
  • District 20:  Sam Farr (D)-inc, old Dist 17 vs. Jeff Taylor (R)
  • District 21:  NEW SEAT:  John Hernandez (D) vs. David Valadao (R)
  • District 22:  Devin Nunes (R)-inc, old Dist 21 vs. Otto Lee (D)
  • District 23:  Kevin McCarthy (R)-inc vs. Eric Parker (R)
  • District 25:  Buck McKeon (R)-inc vs. Lee Rogers (D)
  • District 27:  Judy Chu (D)-inc, old Dist 32 vs. Jack Orswell (R)
  • District 28:  Adam Schiff (D)-inc, old Dist 29 vs. Phil Jennerjahn (R)
  • District 29:  NEW SEAT:  Tony Cardenas (D) vs. David Hernandez (N)
  • District 30:  MERGED: B Sherman (D)-inc, old cd-27 vs. H Berman (D)-inc, old cd-28
  • District 31:  Gary Miller (R)-inc, old Dist 42 vs. Bob Dutton (R)
  • District 32:  Grace Napolitano (D)-inc, old Dist 38 vs. David Miller (R)
  • District 33:  Henry Waxman (D)-inc, old Dist 30 vs. Bill Bloomfield (N)
  • District 34:  Xavier Bercerra (D)-inc, old Dist 31 vs. Stephen Smith (R)
  • District 35:  Joe Baca (D)-inc, old Dist 43 vs. Gloria McLeod (D)
  • District 37:  Karen Bass (D)-inc, old Dist 33  (unopposed)
  • District 38:  Linda Sanchez (D)-inc, old Dist 39 vs. Benjamin Campos (R)
  • District 39:  Ed Royce (R)-inc, old Dist 40 vs. Jay Chen (D)
  • District 40:  Lucille Royball-Allard (D)-inc. old Dist 34 vs. David Sanchez (D)
  • District 42:  Ken Calvert (R)-inc, old Dist 44 vs. Michael Williamson (D)
  • District 43:  Maxine Waters (D)-inc, old Dist 35 vs. Bob Flores (D)
  • District 44:  MERGED:  J Hahn (D)-inc, old cd-36 vs. L Richardson (D)-inc, old cd-37
  • District 45:  John Campbell (R)-inc, old Dist 48 vs. Sukhee Kang (D)
  • District 46:  Loretta Sanchez (D)-inc, old Dist 47 vs. Jerry Hayden (R)
  • District 47:  NEW SEAT:  Alan Lowenthal (D) vs. Gary DeLong (N)
  • District 48:  Dana Rohrbacher (R)-inc, old Dist 46 vs. Ron Varasteh (D)
  • District 49:  Darrell Issa (R)-inc vs. Jerry Tetalman (D)
  • District 50:  Duncan D Hunter (R)-inc, old Dist 52 vs. David Secor (D)
  • District 51:  OPEN:  Juan Vargas (D) vs. Michael Crimmins (R)
  • District 53:  Susan Davis (D)-inc vs. Nicholas Popaditch (R)
  •  
    Additional Information
    Current Partisan Breakdown
     
    National Delegation
      Senators 2 DEM
      Representatives 19 GOP, 34 DEM
    State Government
      Governor DEM
      Lt. Governor DEM
      State Senate - DEM control 15 GOP, 25 DEM
      State Assembly - DEM control 28 GOP, 52 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Jerry Brown (D) - 3rd non-consecutive term, up for re-election in 2014
  • Lt. Governor:  Gavin Newsom - 1st term, up for re-election in 2014
  • Senior Senator:  Dianne Feinstein (D) - 4th term, up for re-election in 2012
  • Junior Senator:  Barbara Boxer (D) - 4th term, up for re-election in 2016
  • House District 1:  Michael Thompson (D) - 7th term (running in CD-5)
  • House District 2:  Wally Herger (R) - 13th term (retiring)
  • House District 3:  Daniel Lungren (R) - 9th term (running in CD-7)
  • House District 4:  Tom McClintock (R) - 2nd term
  • House District 5:  Doris Matsui (D) - 4th term (running in CD-6)
  • House District 6:  Lynn Woolsey (D) - 10th term (retiring)
  • House District 7:  George Miller (D) - 19th term (running in CD-11)
  • House District 8:  Nancy Pelosi (D) - 13th term (running in CD-12)
  • House District 9:  Barbara Lee (D) - 7th term (running in CD-13)
  • House District 10:  John Garamendi (D) - 2nd term (running in CD-3)
  • House District 11:  Jerry McNerney (D) - 3rd term (running in CD-9)
  • House District 12:  Jackie Speier (D) - 3rd term (running in CD-14)
  • House District 13:  Pete Stark (D) - 20th term (running in CD-15)
  • House District 14:  Anna Eshoo (D) - 10th term (running in CD-18)
  • House District 15:  Michael Honda (D) - 6th term (running in CD-17)
  • House District 16:  Zoe Lofgren (D) - 9th term (running in CD-19)
  • House District 17:  Sam Farr (D) - 10th term (running in CD-20)
  • House District 18:  Dennis Cardoza (D) - 5th term (retiring)
  • House District 19:  Jeff Denham (R) - 1st term (running in CD-10)
  • House District 20:  Jim Costa (D) - 4th term (running in CD-16)
  • House District 21:  Devin Nunes (R) - 5th term (running in CD-22)
  • House District 22:  Kevin McCarthy (R) - 3rd term (running in CD-23)
  • House District 23:  Lois Capps (D) - 7th term (running in CD-24)
  • House District 24:  Elton Gallegly (R) - 14th term (retiring)
  • House District 25:  Buck McKeon (R) - 10th term
  • House District 26:  David Dreier (R) - 16th term (retiring)
  • House District 27:  Brad Sherman (D) - 8th term (running in CD-30)
  • House District 28:  Howard Berman (D) - 15th term (running in CD-30)
  • House District 29:  Adam Schiff (D) - 6th term (running in CD-28)
  • House District 30:  Henry Waxman (D) - 19th term (running in CD-33)
  • House District 31:  Xavier Becerra (D) - 10th term (running in CD-34)
  • House District 32:  Judy Chu (D) - 2nd term
  • House District 33:  Karen Bass (D) - 1st term (running in CD-37)
  • House District 34:  Lucille Royball-Allard (D) - 10th term (running in CD-40)
  • House District 35:  Maxine Waters (D) - 11th term (running in CD-43)
  • House District 36:  Janice Hahn (D) - 1st term (partial) (running in CD-44)
  • House District 37:  Laura Richardson (D) - 3rd term (running in CD-44)
  • House District 38:  Grace Napolitano (D) - 7th term (running in CD-32)
  • House District 39:  Linda Sanchez (D) - 5th term (running in CD-38)
  • House District 40:  Edward Royce (R) - 8th term (running in CD-39)
  • House District 41:  Jerry Lewis (R) - 17th term (retiring)
  • House District 42:  Gary Miller (R) - 7th term (running in CD-31)
  • House District 43:  Joe Baca (D) - 7th term (running in CD-35)
  • House District 44:  Kenneth Calvert (R) - 10th term (running in CD-42)
  • House District 45:  Mary Bono Mack (R) - 7th term (running in CD-36)
  • House District 46:  Dana Rohrabacher (R) - 12th term (running in CD-48)
  • House District 47:  Loretta Sanchez (D) - 8th term (running in CD-46)
  • House District 48:  John Campbell (R) - 4th term (running in CD-45)
  • House District 49:  Darrell Issa (R) - 6th term
  • House District 50:  Brian Bilbray (R) - 4th term (running in CD-52)
  • House District 51:  Bob Filner (D) - 10th term (retiring)
  • House District 52:  Duncan D. Hunter (R) - 2nd term (running in CD-50)
  • House District 53:  Susan Davis (D) - 6th term
  • Historical Partisan Snapshot


     
      Race 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

    President Strong D -- Mod D -- Solid D --

    Senate
    Class 1 Solid D -- -- Solid D -- --
    Class 3 -- -- Solid D -- -- Strong D

    Governor -- Mod D -- Solid R -- Strong D

    House 20 R
    32 D
    20 R
    33 D
    20 R
    33 D
    19 R
    34 D
    19 R
    34 D
    19 R
    34 D
    CD-1 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-2 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Strong R
    CD-3 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Mod R Mod R
    CD-4 Solid R Solid R Solid R Weak R Weak R Solid R
    CD-5 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-6 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-7 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-8 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-9 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-10 Mod D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-11 Solid R Solid R Solid R Mod D Strong D Weak D
    CD-12 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-13 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-14 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-15 Strong D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-16 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-17 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-18 Solid D Mod D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-19 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-20 Mod D Solid D Mod D Solid D Solid D Weak D
    CD-21 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-22 Mod D Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-23 Strong R Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-24 Solid D Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-25 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Strong R Solid R
    CD-26 Solid D Solid R Strong R Solid R Strong R Solid R
    CD-27 Mod D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-28 Solid R Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-29 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-30 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-31 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-32 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-33 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-34 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-35 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-36 Weak D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-37 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-38 Weak R Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-39 Solid R Strong D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-40 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-41 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-42 Solid D Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-43 Solid R Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-44 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Weak R Strong R
    CD-45 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Strong R
    CD-46 Solid D Solid R Solid R Solid R Strong R Solid R
    CD-47 Solid R Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Strong D
    CD-48 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Strong R Solid R
    CD-49 Weak D Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-50 Solid D Solid R Solid R Strong R Weak R Solid R
    CD-51 Solid R Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-52 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-53 NA Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D

    BOLD - party turnover
     
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%
  •  

    California Race Tracking
    President
    Barack Obama - inc
    vs
    Mitt Romney
    Projected Winner
    Senate
    Dianne Feinstein - inc
    vs
    Elizabeth Emken
    Projected Winner
    House District 7
    Dan Lungren - inc
    vs
    Amerish Bera
    Projected Winner
    House District 9
    Jerry McNerney - inc
    vs
    Ricky Gill
    Projected Winner
    House District 10
    Jeff Denham - inc
    vs
    Jose Hernandez
    Projected Winner
    House District 24
    Lois Capps - inc
    vs
    Abel Maldonado
    Projected Winner
    House District 26 (open)
    Tony Strickland
    vs
    Julia Brownley
    Projected Winner
    House District 36
    Mary Bono Mack - inc
    vs
    Raul Ruiz
    Projected Winner
    House District 41 (new)
    John Tavaglione
    vs
    Mark Takano
    Projected Winner
    House District 52
    Brian Bilbray - inc
    vs
    Scott Peters
    Projected Winner
    2012 Elections On Demand


    Presidential Races
     
    Projections:

    Polls:

    Senate & Governor Races
     
    Projections:

    Polls:

    Competitive House Races
     
    Projections:

    Polls:
    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political


    Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics


    D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report


    Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas


    David Wissing
    The Hedgehog Report


    Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball


    Richard & Tony
    The Green Papers


    Rose Institute
    Redistricting in America


    Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
    RealClearPolitics

    Election Projection Resources
     
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