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2012 Projections


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General Information

Election Timeline

  • April 24, 2012 - Presidential primaries
  • May 29, 2012 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • August 14, 2012 - Primary elections (non-presidential)
  • November 6, 2012 - Election day
  • Latest Polls and Updates

    Conservative Ranking

    Connecticut is the 10th least conservative state, voting 15.10% less Republican in the 2008 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend

    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Connecticut is trending DEMOCRAT in presidential elections.

    GOP Trend Ranking

    Connecticut ranks 47th among the 50 states.

    Projected Races
    Click on a race for details

    Presidential Race

    Barack Obama - inc  vs.  Mitt Romney

    Senate Race

    OPEN:  Christopher Murphy  vs.  Linda McMahon

    Governor Race

    No race in 2012

    Competitive House Races

  • District 5:  OPEN:  Elizabath Esty  vs.  Andrew Roraback
  • Other House Races

    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  John Larson (D)-inc vs. John Decker (R)
  • District 2:  Joe Courtney (D)-inc vs. Paul Formica (R)
  • District 3:  Rosa DeLauro (D)-inc vs. Wayne Winsley (R)
  • District 4:  Jim Himes (D)-inc vs. Stephen Obsitnik (R)
    Additional Information
    Current Partisan Breakdown
    National Delegation
      Senators 1 DEM, 1 IND
      Representatives 5 DEM
    State Government
      Governor DEM
      Lt. Governor DEM
      State Senate - DEM control 14 GOP, 22 DEM
      State House - DEM control 52 GOP, 99 DEM

    Current Office Holders

  • Governor:  Dannel Malloy (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2014
  • Lt. Governor:  Nancy Wyman (D) - 1st term, tied to Governor
  • Senior Senator:  Richard Blumenthal (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2016
  • Junior Senator:  Joseph Lieberman (I) - 4th term, not seeking re-election in 2012
  • House District 1:  John Larson (D) - 7th term
  • House District 2:  Joe Courtney (D) - 3rd term
  • House District 3:  Rosa DeLauro (D) - 11th term
  • House District 4:  Jim Himes (D) - 2nd term
  • House District 5:  Christopher Murphy (D) - 3rd term (running for Senate)
  • Historical Partisan Snapshot

      Race 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

    President Solid D -- Strong D -- Solid D --

    Class 1 Solid D -- -- Strong I -- --
    Class 3 -- -- Solid D -- -- Strong D

    Governor -- Strong R -- Solid R -- Weak D

    House 3 GOP
    3 DEM
    3 GOP
    2 DEM
    3 GOP
    2 DEM
    1 GOP
    4 DEM
    5 DEM 5 DEM
    CD-1 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-2 Weak R Mod R Mod R Weak D Solid D Solid D
    CD-3 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-4 Solid R Solid R Weak R Weak R Weak D Mod D
    CD-5 Mod D Strong R Solid R Strong D Solid D Mod D
    CD-6 Solid R NA NA NA NA NA

    BOLD - party turnover
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%

    Connecticut Race Tracking
    Barack Obama - inc
    Mitt Romney
    Projected Winner
    Senate (open)
    Christopher Murphy
    Linda McMahon
    Projected Winner
    House District 5 (open)
    Elizabeth Esty
    Andrew Roraback
    Projected Winner
    2012 Elections On Demand

    Presidential Races


    Senate & Governor Races


    Competitive House Races

    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political

    Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics

    D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report

    Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas

    David Wissing
    The Hedgehog Report

    Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball

    Richard & Tony
    The Green Papers

    Rose Institute
    Redistricting in America

    Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

    Election Projection Resources
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