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2012 Projections


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General Information

Election Timeline

  • April 24, 2012 - Presidential primaries
  • July 12, 2012 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • September 11, 2012 - Primary elections (non-presidential)
  • November 6, 2012 - Election day
  • Latest Polls and Updates

    Conservative Ranking

    Delaware is the 8th least conservative state, voting 17.71% less Republican in the 2008 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend

    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Delaware is trending DEMOCRAT in presidential elections.

    GOP Trend Ranking

    Delaware ranks 48th among the 50 states.

    Projected Races
    Click on a race for details

    Presidential Race

    Barack Obama - inc  vs.  Mitt Romney

    Senate Race

    Tom Carper - inc  vs.  Kevin Wade

    Governor Race

    Jack Markell - inc  vs.  Jeffrey Cragg

    Competitive House Races

    No competitive races in 2012

    Other House Races

    Projected winner listed first
  • District AL:  John Carney, Jr. (D)-inc vs. Thomas Kovach (R)
    Additional Information
    Current Partisan Breakdown
    National Delegation
      Senators 2 DEM
      Representatives 1 DEM
    State Government
      Governor DEM
      Lt. Governor DEM
      State Senate - DEM control 7 GOP, 14 DEM
      State House - DEM control 15 GOP, 26 DEM

    Current Office Holders

  • Governor:  Jack Markell (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2012
  • Lt. Governor:  Matthew Denn (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2012
  • Senior Senator:  Tom Carper (D) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2012
  • Junior Senator:  Chris Coons (D) - 1st term (partial), up for re-election in 2014
  • House District AL:  John Carney, Jr. (D) - 1st term
  • Historical Partisan Snapshot

      Race 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

    President Strong D -- Mod D -- Solid D --

    Class 1 Strong D -- -- Solid D -- --
    Class 2 -- Solid D -- -- Solid D --

    Governor Solid D -- Mod D -- Solid D --

    House 1 GOP 1 GOP 1 GOP 1 GOP 1 GOP 1 DEM
    CD-AL Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid D

    BOLD - party turnover
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%

    Delaware Race Tracking
    Barack Obama - inc
    Mitt Romney
    Projected Winner
    Tom Carper - inc
    Kevin Wade
    Projected Winner
    Jack Markell - inc
    Jeff Cragg
    Projected Winner
    2012 Elections On Demand

    Presidential Races


    Senate & Governor Races


    Competitive House Races

    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political

    Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics

    D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report

    Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas

    David Wissing
    The Hedgehog Report

    Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball

    Richard & Tony
    The Green Papers

    Rose Institute
    Redistricting in America

    Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

    Election Projection Resources
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