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Florida  
 
General Information

Election Timeline

  • January 31, 2012 - Presidential primaries
  • June 8, 2012 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • August 14, 2012 - Primary elections (non-presidential)
  • November 6, 2012 - Election day
    •

    Latest Polls and Updates

    Conservative Ranking

    Florida is the 25th most conservative state, voting for Obama in 2008 but 2.81% more Republican than the national average.

    Partisan Trend

    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Florida is trending DEMOCRAT in presidential elections.

    GOP Trend Ranking

    Florida ranks 28th among the 50 states.
     


    Presidential Race

    Race for the White House

    GOP Candidates
  • Newt Gingrich - Former U.S. Speaker of the House from Georgia
  • Ron Paul - U.S. Representative from Texas
  • Mitt Romney - Former Governor of Massachusetts
  • Rick Santorum - Former Senator from Pennsylvania

    • DEM Candidates

  • Barack Obama - President of the United States

    • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

     
    Senate Race
    Incumbent:  Two-term Democrat Bill Nelson seeks a third term in 2012.  He currently faces only minor primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Akinyemi Agbede
  • George Bollinger
  • William Fisher, Jr.
  • Alexander Ilnyckyj
  • Joshua Larose
  • George S. LeMieux - Former U.S. Senator from Florida
  • Deon Long
  • Connie Mack - U.S. Representative from Florida
  • Michael McCalister
  • Ronald McNeil
  • Mirand Sharma
  • Dan Stojadinovic
  • Marielena Stuart

    • DEM Candidates

  • Bill Nelson - Incumbent
  • William Charles Lynch

    • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Weak DEM Hold

     
    Governor's Race
    No race in 2012
     
    Competitive House Races
    District 22
    Incumbent  GOP incumbent Allen West is seeking re-election for the first time in 2012.  He currently faces no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Allen West - Incumbent
  • Adam Hasner - Former Florida State Representative
  • Chip LaMarca - Broward County Commissioner

    • DEM Candidates

  • Lois Frankel - Former Mayor of West Palm Beach
  • Patrick Murphy

    • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Weak GOP Hold

     
    Other House Races
    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Jeff Miller (R)-inc vs. James Bryan (D)
  • District 2:  Steve Southerland, II (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)
  • District 3:  Corrine Brown (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
  • District 4:  Ander Crenshaw? (R)-inc vs. Gary Koniz (D)
  • District 5:  Richard Nugent (R)-inc vs. David Werder (D)
  • District 6:  Cliff Stearns? (R)-inc  (currently unopposed)
  • District 7:  John Mica? (R)-inc vs. Vipin Verma (D)
  • District 8:  Daniel Webster? (R)-inc vs. Valdez Dimings (D) (possibly competitive)
  • District 9:  Gus Bilirakis (R)-inc vs. Jonathan Snow (D)
  • District 10:  Bill Young? (R)-inc vs. ??? (D) (possibly competitive)
  • District 11:  Kathy Castor? (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
  • District 12:  Dennis Ross (R)-inc  (currently unopposed)
  • District 13:  Vern Buchanan (R)-inc vs. ??? (D) (possibly competitive)
  • District 14:  OPEN: ??? (R) vs. ??? (D)
  • District 15:  William Posey? (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)
  • District 16:  Tom Rooney? (R)-inc  (currently unopposed)
  • District 17:  Frederica Wilson (D)-inc  (currently unopposed)
  • District 18:  Ileana Ros-Lehtinen? (R)-inc vs. Jerry Lee Buechler (D)
  • District 19:  Ted Deutch (D)-inc vs. Anna Marie Trujillo (R)
  • District 20:  Debbie Schultz (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
  • District 21:  Mario Diaz-Balart (R)-inc  (currently unopposed)
  • District 23:  Alcee Hastings (D)-inc vs. Bernard Sansaricq (R)
  • District 24:  Sandra Adams (R)-inc vs. Nicholas Riuz, III (D) (possibly competitive)
  • District 25:  David Rivera (R)-inc vs. ??? (D) (possibly competitive)
  • District 26:  NEW SEAT: (currently undefined)
  • District 27:  NEW SEAT: (currently undefined)
    •
     
    Additional Information
    Current Partisan Breakdown
     
    National Delegation
      Senators 1 GOP, 1 DEM
      Representatives 19 GOP, 6 DEM
    State Government
      Governor GOP
      Lt. Governor GOP
      State Senate - GOP control 28 GOP, 12 DEM
      State House - GOP control 81 GOP, 39 DEM

    Current Office Holders

  • Governor:  Richard Scott (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2014
  • Lt. Governor:  Jennifer Carroll (R) - 1st term, tied to Governor
  • Senior Senator:  Bill Nelson (D) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2012
  • Junior Senator:  Marco Rubio (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2016
  • House District 1:  Jeff Miller (R) - 6th term
  • House District 2:  Steve Southerland (R) - 1st term
  • House District 3:  Corrine Brown (D) - 10th term
  • House District 4:  Ander Crenshaw (R) - 6th term
  • House District 5:  Rich Nugent (R) - 1st term
  • House District 6:  Cliff Stearns (R) - 12th term
  • House District 7:  John Mica (R) - 10th term
  • House District 8:  Daniel Webster (D) - 1st term
  • House District 9:  Gus Bilirakis (R) - 3rd term
  • House District 10:  Bill Young (R) - 21th term
  • House District 11:  Kathy Castor (D) - 3rd term
  • House District 12:  Dennis Ross (R) - 1st term
  • House District 13:  Vern Buchanan (R) - 3rd term
  • House District 14:  Connie Mack, IV (R) - 4th term (running for Senate)
  • House District 15:  William Posey (R) - 2nd term
  • House District 16:  Tom Rooney (R) - 2nd term
  • House District 17:  Frederica Wilson (D) - 1st term
  • House District 18:  Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R) - 12th term
  • House District 19:  Ted Deutch (D) 2nd term
  • House District 20:  Debbie Schultz (D) - 4th term
  • House District 21:  Mario Diaz-Balart (R) - 6th term, 1st in district
  • House District 22:  Allen West (R) - 1st term
  • House District 23:  Alcee Hastings (D) - 10th term
  • House District 24:  Sandy Adams (R) - 1st term
  • House District 25:  David Rivera (R) - 1st term

    • Historical Partisan Snapshot
     
      Race 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
    President Weak R -- Mod R -- Weak D --
    Senate
    Class 1 Mod D -- -- Solid D -- --
    Class 3 -- -- Weak R -- -- Solid R
    Governor -- Mod R -- Mod R -- Weak R
    House 15 GOP
    8 DEM    		 18 GOP
    7 DEM    		 18 GOP
    7 DEM    		 16 GOP
    9 DEM    		 15 GOP
    10 DEM    		 19 GOP
    6 DEM
    CD-1 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-2 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Strong R
    CD-3 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-4 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-5 Solid D Weak R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-6 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-7 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-8 Weak R Solid R Solid R Mod R Weak D Solid R
    CD-9 Solid R Solid R Solid R Strong R Solid R Solid R
    CD-10 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-11 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-12 Strong R Solid R Solid R Solid R Strong R Mod R
    CD-13 Solid R Strong R Strong R Weak R Solid R Solid R
    CD-14 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-15 Solid R Solid R Solid R Strong R Strong R Solid R
    CD-16 Solid R Solid R Solid R Weak D Solid R Solid R
    CD-17 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-18 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-19 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-20 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-21 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-22 Weak R Solid R Solid R Weak D Strong D Mod R
    CD-23 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-24 NA Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid D Solid R
    CD-25 NA Solid R Solid R Solid R Mod R Mod R
    BOLD - party turnover
     
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%
    •
     

    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political

     Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics

     D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report

     Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas

     David Wissing
    The Hedgehog Report

     Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball

     Richard & Tony
    The Green Papers

     Rose Institute
    Redistricting in America

     Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
    RealClearPolitics
    2012 Projections, State-by-State

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