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2012 Projections

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Florida  
 
General Information

Election Timeline


  • January 31, 2012 - Presidential primaries
  • June 8, 2012 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • August 14, 2012 - Primary elections (non-presidential)
  • November 6, 2012 - Election day
  • Latest Polls and Updates


    Conservative Ranking


    Florida is the 25th most conservative state, voting for Obama in 2008 but 2.81% more Republican than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Florida is trending DEMOCRAT in presidential elections.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    Florida ranks 28th among the 50 states.
     

    Projected Races
    Click on a race for details

    Presidential Race


    Barack Obama - inc  vs.  Mitt Romney

    Senate Race


    Bill Nelson - inc  vs.  Connie Mack, IV

    Governor Race


    No race in 2012

    Competitive House Races


  • District 2:  Steve Southerland, II - inc  vs.  Al Lawson
  • District 10:  Dan Webster - inc  vs.  Val Demings
  • District 18:  Allen West - inc  vs.  Patrick Murphy
  • District 22:  NEW SEAT:  Lois Frankel  vs.  Adam Hasner
  • District 26:  David Rivera - inc  vs.  Joe Garcia
  • Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Jeff Miller (R)-inc vs. James Bryan (D)
  • District 3:  OPEN:  Theodore Yoho (R) vs. J.R. Gaillot, Jr. (D)
  • District 4:  Ander Crenshaw (R)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 5:  Corrine Brown (D)-inc, old Dist 3 vs. Evna Kolb (R)
  • District 6:  NEW SEAT:  Ron DeSantis (R) vs. Heathe Beaven (D)
  • District 7:  MERGED:  John Mica (R)-inc vs. Jason Kendall (D)
  • District 8:  William Posey (R)-inc, old Dist 15 vs. Shannon Roberts (D)
  • District 9:  NEW SEAT:  Alan Grayson (D) vs. Todd Long (R)
  • District 11:  Richard Nugent (R)-inc, old Dist 5 vs. David Werder (D)
  • District 12:  Gus Bilirakis (R)-inc, old Dist 9 vs. Jonathan Snow (D)
  • District 13:  Bill Young (R)-inc, old Dist 10 vs. Jessica Ehrlich (D) - possibly competitive
  • District 14:  Kathy Castor (D)-inc, old Dist 11 vs. Evelio Otero (R)
  • District 15:  Dennis Ross (R)-inc, old Dist 12  (unopposed)
  • District 16:  Vern Buchanan (R)-inc, old Dist 13 vs. Keith Fitzgerald (D) - possibly competitive
  • District 17:  Tom Rooney (R)-inc, old Dist 16 vs. William Bronson (D)
  • District 19:  OPEN:  Trey Radel (R) vs. James Roach (D)
  • District 20:  Alcee Hastings (D)-inc, old Dist 23  (unopposed)
  • District 21:  Ted Deutch (D)-inc, old Dist 19  (unopposed)
  • District 23:  Debbie Schultz (D)-inc, old Dist 20 vs. Karen Harrington (R)
  • District 24:  Frederica Wilson (D)-inc, old Dist 17  (unopposed)
  • District 25:  Mario Diaz-Balart (R)-inc, old Dist 21  (unopposed)
  • District 27:  Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R)-inc, old Dist 18 vs. Manny Yevancey (D)
  •  
    Additional Information
    Current Partisan Breakdown
     
    National Delegation
      Senators 1 GOP, 1 DEM
      Representatives 19 GOP, 6 DEM
    State Government
      Governor GOP
      Lt. Governor GOP
      State Senate - GOP control 28 GOP, 12 DEM
      State House - GOP control 81 GOP, 39 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Richard Scott (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2014
  • Lt. Governor:  Jennifer Carroll (R) - 1st term, tied to Governor
  • Senior Senator:  Bill Nelson (D) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2012
  • Junior Senator:  Marco Rubio (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2016
  • House District 1:  Jeff Miller (R) - 6th term
  • House District 2:  Steve Southerland (R) - 1st term
  • House District 3:  Corrine Brown (D) - 10th term (running in CD-5)
  • House District 4:  Ander Crenshaw (R) - 6th term
  • House District 5:  Rich Nugent (R) - 1st term (running in CD-11)
  • House District 6:  Cliff Stearns (R) - 12th term (lost primary in CD-3)
  • House District 7:  John Mica (R) - 10th term
  • House District 8:  Daniel Webster (D) - 1st term (running in CD-10)
  • House District 9:  Gus Bilirakis (R) - 3rd term (running in CD-12)
  • House District 10:  Bill Young (R) - 21th term (running in CD-13)
  • House District 11:  Kathy Castor (D) - 3rd term (running in CD-14)
  • House District 12:  Dennis Ross (R) - 1st term (running in CD-15)
  • House District 13:  Vern Buchanan (R) - 3rd term (running in CD-16)
  • House District 14:  Connie Mack, IV (R) - 4th term (running for Senate)
  • House District 15:  William Posey (R) - 2nd term (running in CD-8)
  • House District 16:  Tom Rooney (R) - 2nd term
  • House District 17:  Frederica Wilson (D) - 1st term (running in CD-24)
  • House District 18:  Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R) - 12th term (running in CD-27)
  • House District 19:  Ted Deutch (D) 2nd term (running in CD-21)
  • House District 20:  Debbie Schultz (D) - 4th term (running in CD-23)
  • House District 21:  Mario Diaz-Balart (R) - 6th term (running in CD-25)
  • House District 22:  Allen West (R) - 1st term (running in CD-18)
  • House District 23:  Alcee Hastings (D) - 10th term (running in CD-20)
  • House District 24:  Sandy Adams (R) - 1st term (running in CD-7)
  • House District 25:  David Rivera (R) - 1st term (running in CD-26)
  • Historical Partisan Snapshot


     
      Race 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

    President Weak R -- Mod R -- Weak D --

    Senate
    Class 1 Mod D -- -- Solid D -- --
    Class 3 -- -- Weak R -- -- Solid R

    Governor -- Mod R -- Mod R -- Weak R

    House 15 GOP
    8 DEM
    18 GOP
    7 DEM
    18 GOP
    7 DEM
    16 GOP
    9 DEM
    15 GOP
    10 DEM
    19 GOP
    6 DEM
    CD-1 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-2 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Strong R
    CD-3 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-4 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-5 Solid D Weak R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-6 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-7 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-8 Weak R Solid R Solid R Mod R Weak D Solid R
    CD-9 Solid R Solid R Solid R Strong R Solid R Solid R
    CD-10 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-11 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-12 Strong R Solid R Solid R Solid R Strong R Mod R
    CD-13 Solid R Strong R Strong R Weak R Solid R Solid R
    CD-14 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-15 Solid R Solid R Solid R Strong R Strong R Solid R
    CD-16 Solid R Solid R Solid R Weak D Solid R Solid R
    CD-17 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-18 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-19 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-20 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-21 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-22 Weak R Solid R Solid R Weak D Strong D Mod R
    CD-23 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-24 NA Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid D Solid R
    CD-25 NA Solid R Solid R Solid R Mod R Mod R

    BOLD - party turnover
     
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%
  •  

    Florida Race Tracking
    President
    Barack Obama - inc
    vs
    Mitt Romney
    Projected Winner
    Senate
    Bill Nelson - inc
    vs
    Connie Mack, IV
    Projected Winner
    House District 2
    Steve Southerland - inc
    vs
    Al Lawson
    Projected Winner
    House District 10
    Dan Webster - inc
    vs
    Val Demings
    Projected Winner
    House District 18
    Allen West - inc
    vs
    Patrick Murphy
    Projected Winner
    House District 22 (new)
    Adam Hasner
    vs
    Lois Frankel
    Projected Winner
    House District 26
    David Rivera - inc
    vs
    Joe Garcia
    Projected Winner
    2012 Elections On Demand


    Presidential Races
     
    Projections:

    Polls:

    Senate & Governor Races
     
    Projections:

    Polls:

    Competitive House Races
     
    Projections:

    Polls:
    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political


    Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics


    D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report


    Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas


    David Wissing
    The Hedgehog Report


    Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball


    Richard & Tony
    The Green Papers


    Rose Institute
    Redistricting in America


    Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
    RealClearPolitics

    Election Projection Resources
     
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    e-mail Scott at:
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    gmail <put a period here> com
     

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