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Hawaii  
 
General Information

Election Timeline


  • March 13, 2012 - Presidential caucuses
  • June 5, 2012 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • August 11, 2012 - Primary elections (non-presidential)
  • November 6, 2012 - Election day
  • Latest Polls and Updates


    Conservative Ranking


    Hawaii is the least conservative state, voting a whopping 38.00% less Republican in the 2008 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Hawaii is trending DEMOCRAT in presidential elections.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    Hawaii ranks last among the 50 states.
     

    Projected Races
    Click on a race for details

    Presidential Race


    Barack Obama - inc  vs.  Mitt Romney

    Senate Race


    OPEN:  Mazie Hirono  vs.  Linda Lingle

    Governor Race


    No race in 2012

    Competitive House Races


    No competitive races in 2012

    Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Colleen Hanabusa (D)-inc vs. Charles Djou (R)
  • District 2:  OPEN: Tulsi Gabbard (D) vs. David "Kawika" Crowley (R)
  •  
    Additional Information
    Current Partisan Breakdown
     
    National Delegation
      Senators 2 DEM
      Representatives 2 DEM
    State Government
      Governor DEM
      Lt. Governor DEM
      State Senate - DEM control 1 GOP, 24 DEM
      State House - DEM control 8 GOP, 43 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Neil Abercrombie (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2014
  • Lt. Governor:  Brian Schatz (D) - 1st term, tied to Governor
  • Senior Senator:  Daniel Inouye (D) - 9th term, up for re-election in 2010
  • Junior Senator:  Daniel Akaka (D) - 4th term, not seeking re-election in 2012
  • House District 1:  Colleen Hanabusa (D) - 1st term
  • House District 2:  Mazie Hirono (D) - 3rd term (running for Senate)
  • Historical Partisan Snapshot


     
      Race 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

    President Solid D -- Mod D -- Solid D --

    Senate
    Class 1 Solid D -- -- Solid D -- --
    Class 3 -- -- Solid D -- -- Solid D

    Governor -- Mod R -- Solid R -- Solid D

    House 2 DEM 2 DEM 2 DEM 2 DEM 2 DEM 2 DEM
    CD-1 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Mod D
    CD-2 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D

    BOLD - party turnover
     
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%
  •  

    Hawaii Race Tracking
    President
    Barack Obama - inc
    vs
    Mitt Romney
    Projected Winner
    Senate (open)
    Mazie Hirono
    vs
    Linda Lingle
    Projected Winner
    2012 Elections On Demand


    Presidential Races
     
    Projections:

    Polls:

    Senate & Governor Races
     
    Projections:

    Polls:

    Competitive House Races
     
    Projections:

    Polls:
    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political


    Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics


    D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report


    Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas


    David Wissing
    The Hedgehog Report


    Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball


    Richard & Tony
    The Green Papers


    Rose Institute
    Redistricting in America


    Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
    RealClearPolitics

    Election Projection Resources
     
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    e-mail Scott at:
    electionprojection-at-
    gmail <put a period here> com
     

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