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Illinois  
 
General Information

Election Timeline

  • TBD - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • March 20, 2012 - Presidential primaries
  • March 20, 2012 - Primary elections (non-presidential)
  • November 6, 2012 - Election day
    •

    Latest Polls and Updates

    Conservative Ranking

    Illinois is the 7th least conservative state, voting 17.84% less Republican in the 2008 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend

    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Illinois is trending DEMOCRAT in presidential elections.

    GOP Trend Ranking

    Illinois ranks 41st among the 50 states.
     


    Presidential Race

    Race for the White House

    GOP Candidates
  • Newt Gingrich - Former U.S. Speaker of the House from Georgia
  • Ron Paul - U.S. Representative from Texas
  • Mitt Romney - Former Governor of Massachusetts
  • Rick Santorum - Former Senator from Pennsylvania

    • DEM Candidates

  • Barack Obama - President of the United States

    • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

     
    Senate Race
    No race in 2012
     
    Governor's Race
    No race in 2012
     
    Competitive House Races
    District 8
    Incumbent  GOP freshman Republican Joe Walsh first announced intentions to run in District 14 in 2012.  He has since decided to run again in District 8.  He currently faces no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Joe Walsh - Incumbent

    • DEM Candidates

  • Tammy Duckworth - Former Assistant Secretary of Veterans Affairs
  • Raja Krishnamoorthi

    • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Weak DEM Gain

     

    District 10
    Incumbent:  GOP incumbent Robert Dold is seeking re-election for the first time in 2012.  He currently faces no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Robert Dold, Jr. - Incumbent

    • DEM Candidates

  • Vivec Bavda
  • Bradley Schneider
  • Ilya Sheyman
  • John Tree

    • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Mod DEM Gain

     

    District 11
    Incumbent:  Republican Judy Biggert, old District 13, is up for a seventh term in 2012.  She currently faces no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Judy Biggert - Incumbent, old District 13

    • DEM Candidates

  • Bill Foster - Former U.S. Representative from Illinois
  • James Hickey - Orland Fire Protection District President
  • Juan Thomas - Former Aurora Township Clerk

    • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Weak DEM Gain

     

    District 12
    OPEN SEAT:  Democratic incumbent Jerry Costello is retiring.  He will not seek a 13th term in 2012.

    GOP Candidates

  • Rodger Cook - Former Mayor of Belleville
  • Theresa Kormos
  • Jason Plummer

    • DEM Candidates

  • Brad Harriman - Former St. Clair County Regional School Superintendent
  • Kenneth "Bud" Wiezer

    • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Weak DEM Hold

     

    District 13
    Incumbent  Republican incumbent Tim Johnson, old District 15, is running for a sixth term in District 13 in 2012.  He faces only minor primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Tim Johnson - Incumbent, old District 15
  • Michael Firsching - Former Madison County School Board Member
  • Frank Metzger

    • DEM Candidates

  • David Gill
  • Matthew Goetten - Greene County State's Attorney

    • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Weak GOP Hold

     

    District 17
    Incumbent  Freshman GOP incumbent Bobby Schilling is seeking a second term in 2012.  He currently faces no primary opposition.

    GOP Candidates

  • Bobby Schilling - Incumbent

    • DEM Candidates

  • Greg Aguilar
  • Cheri Bustos - East Moline Alderwoman
  • George Gaulrapp - Mayor of Freeport

    • Click here for Election Projection blogposts about this race.

    Polling Data - polls to be tracked after party primaries

    Projection Data - table to be filled out after party primaries

    Preliminary Projection - Weak DEM Gain

     
    Other House Races
    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Bobby Rush? (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
  • District 2:  Jesse Jackson Jr.? (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
  • District 3:  Daniel Lipinski? (D)-inc vs. ??? (R)
  • District 4:  Luis Gutierrez (D)-inc  (currently unopposed)
  • District 5:  Mike Quigley (D)-inc vs. Dan Schmitt (R)
  • District 6:  Peter Roskam (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)
  • District 7:  Danny Davis? (D)-inc  (currently unopposed)
  • District 9:  Jan Schakowsky? (D)-inc vs. Timothy Wolfe (R)
  • District 14:  Randy Hultgren (R)-inc vs. ??? (D)
  • District 15:  John Shimkus (R)-inc, old Dist 19 vs. Angela Michael (D)
  • District 16:  MERGED:  Donald Manzullo (R)-inc  (currently unopposed)
  • District 18:  Aaron Schock (R) vs. ??? (D)
    •
     
    Additional Information
    Current Partisan Breakdown
     
    National Delegation
      Senators 1 GOP, 1 DEM
      Representatives 11 GOP, 8 DEM
    State Government
      Governor DEM
      Lt. Governor DEM
      State Senate - DEM control 24 GOP, 35 DEM
      State House - DEM control 54 GOP, 64 DEM

    Current Office Holders

  • Governor:  Pat Quinn (D) - 1st full term, up for election in 2014
  • Lt. Governor:  Sheila Simon (D) - 1st term, tied to Governor
  • Senior Senator:  Richard Durbin (D) - 3rd term, up for re-election in 2014
  • Junior Senator:  Mark Steven Kirk (R) - 1st term up for re-election in 2016
  • House District 1:  Bobby Rush (D) - 10th term
  • House District 2:  Jesse Jackson Jr. (D) - 9th term
  • House District 3:  Daniel Lipinski (D) - 4th term
  • House District 4:  Luis Gutierrez (D) - 10th term
  • House District 5:  Mike Quigley (D) - 2nd term
  • House District 6:  Peter Roskam (R) - 3rd term
  • House District 7:  Danny Davis (D) - 8th term
  • House District 8:  Joe Walsh (R) - 1st term
  • House District 9:  Jan Schakowsky (D) - 7th term
  • House District 10:  Robert Dold (R) - 1st term
  • House District 11:  Adam Kinzinger (R) - 1st term
  • House District 12:  Jerry Costello (D) - 12th term (retiring)
  • House District 13:  Judy Biggert (R) - 6th term
  • House District 14:  Randy Hultgren (R) - 1st term
  • House District 15:  Tim Johnson (R) - 6th term
  • House District 16:  Donald Manzullo (R) - 10th term (might retire)
  • House District 17:  Bobby Schilling (R) - 1st term
  • House District 18:  Aaron Schock (R) - 2nd term
  • House District 19:  John Shimkus (R) - 8th term

    • Historical Partisan Snapshot
     
      Race 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
    President Strong D -- Strong D -- Solid D --
    Senate
    Class 2 -- Solid D -- -- Solid D --
    Class 3 -- -- Solid D -- -- Weak R
    Governor -- Mod D -- Strong D -- Weak D
    House 9 GOP
    11 DEM    		 10 GOP
    9 DEM    		 9 GOP
    10 DEM    		 9 GOP
    10 DEM    		 7 GOP
    12 DEM    		 11 GOP
    8 DEM
    CD-1 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-2 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-3 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-4 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-5 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-6 Solid R Solid R Strong R Weak R Strong R Solid R
    CD-7 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-8 Solid D Strong R Weak D Mod D Solid D Weak R
    CD-9 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-10 Weak R Solid R Solid R Mod R Mod R Weak R
    CD-11 Mod R Solid R Solid R Strong R Solid D Strong R
    CD-12 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-13 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Mod R Solid R
    CD-14 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid D Mod R
    CD-15 Mod R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-16 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-17 Strong D Solid D Solid D Strong D Solid D Strong R
    CD-18 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-19 Solid D Strong R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-20 Solid R NA NA NA NA NA
    BOLD - party turnover
     
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%
    •
     

    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political

     Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics

     D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report

     Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas

     David Wissing
    The Hedgehog Report

     Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball

     Richard & Tony
    The Green Papers

     Rose Institute
    Redistricting in America

     Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
    RealClearPolitics
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