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2012 Projections

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Illinois  
 
General Information

Election Timeline

  • December 11, 2011 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • March 20, 2012 - Presidential primaries
  • March 20, 2012 - Primary elections (non-presidential)
  • November 6, 2012 - Election day
    •

    Latest Polls and Updates

    Conservative Ranking

    Illinois is the 7th least conservative state, voting 17.84% less Republican in the 2008 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend

    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Illinois is trending DEMOCRAT in presidential elections.

    GOP Trend Ranking

    Illinois ranks 41st among the 50 states.
     

    Projected Races
    Click on a race for details

    Presidential Race

    Barack Obama - inc  vs.  Mitt Romney

    Senate Race

    No race in 2012

    Governor Race

    No race in 2012

    Competitive House Races

  • District 8:  Joe Walsh - inc  vs.  Tammy Duckworth
  • District 10:  Robert Dold - inc  vs.  Bradley Schneider
  • District 11:  Judy Biggert - inc  vs.  Bill Foster
  • District 12:  OPEN:  William Enyart  vs.  Jason Plummer
  • District 13:  OPEN:  Rodney Davis  vs.  David Gill
  • District 17:  Bobby Schilling - inc  vs.  Cheri Bustos

    • Other House Races

    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Bobby Rush (D)-inc vs. Donald Peloquin (R)
  • District 2:  Jesse Jackson Jr. (D)-inc vs. Brian Woodworth (R)
  • District 3:  Daniel Lipinski (D)-inc vs. Richard Grabowski (R)
  • District 4:  Luis Gutierrez (D)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 5:  Mike Quigley (D)-inc vs. Dan Schmitt (R)
  • District 6:  Peter Roskam (R)-inc vs. Leslie Coolidge (D)
  • District 7:  Danny Davis (D)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 9:  Jan Schakowsky (D)-inc vs. Timothy Wolfe (R)
  • District 14:  Randy Hultgren (R)-inc vs. Dennis Anderson (D)
  • District 15:  John Shimkus (R)-inc, old Dist 19 vs. Angela Michael (D)
  • District 16:  MERGED:  Adam Kinzinger (R)-inc, old CD-11 vs. Wanda Rohl (D)
  • District 18:  Aaron Schock (R) vs. Steve Waterworth (D)
    •
     
    Additional Information
    Current Partisan Breakdown
     
    National Delegation
      Senators 1 GOP, 1 DEM
      Representatives 11 GOP, 8 DEM
    State Government
      Governor DEM
      Lt. Governor DEM
      State Senate - DEM control 24 GOP, 35 DEM
      State House - DEM control 54 GOP, 64 DEM

    Current Office Holders

  • Governor:  Pat Quinn (D) - 1st full term, up for election in 2014
  • Lt. Governor:  Sheila Simon (D) - 1st term, tied to Governor
  • Senior Senator:  Richard Durbin (D) - 3rd term, up for re-election in 2014
  • Junior Senator:  Mark Steven Kirk (R) - 1st term up for re-election in 2016
  • House District 1:  Bobby Rush (D) - 10th term
  • House District 2:  Jesse Jackson Jr. (D) - 9th term
  • House District 3:  Daniel Lipinski (D) - 4th term
  • House District 4:  Luis Gutierrez (D) - 10th term
  • House District 5:  Mike Quigley (D) - 2nd term
  • House District 6:  Peter Roskam (R) - 3rd term
  • House District 7:  Danny Davis (D) - 8th term
  • House District 8:  Joe Walsh (R) - 1st term
  • House District 9:  Jan Schakowsky (D) - 7th term
  • House District 10:  Robert Dold (R) - 1st term
  • House District 11:  Adam Kinzinger (R) - 1st term (running in CD-16)
  • House District 12:  Jerry Costello (D) - 12th term (retiring)
  • House District 13:  Judy Biggert (R) - 6th term (running in CD-11)
  • House District 14:  Randy Hultgren (R) - 1st term
  • House District 15:  Tim Johnson (R) - 6th term (retiring)
  • House District 16:  Donald Manzullo (R) - 10th term (defeated in primary)
  • House District 17:  Bobby Schilling (R) - 1st term
  • House District 18:  Aaron Schock (R) - 2nd term
  • House District 19:  John Shimkus (R) - 8th term (running in CD-15)

    • Historical Partisan Snapshot
     
      Race 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
    President Strong D -- Strong D -- Solid D --
    Senate
    Class 2 -- Solid D -- -- Solid D --
    Class 3 -- -- Solid D -- -- Weak R
    Governor -- Mod D -- Strong D -- Weak D
    House 9 GOP
    11 DEM    		 10 GOP
    9 DEM    		 9 GOP
    10 DEM    		 9 GOP
    10 DEM    		 7 GOP
    12 DEM    		 11 GOP
    8 DEM
    CD-1 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-2 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-3 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-4 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-5 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-6 Solid R Solid R Strong R Weak R Strong R Solid R
    CD-7 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-8 Solid D Strong R Weak D Mod D Solid D Weak R
    CD-9 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-10 Weak R Solid R Solid R Mod R Mod R Weak R
    CD-11 Mod R Solid R Solid R Strong R Solid D Strong R
    CD-12 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-13 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Mod R Solid R
    CD-14 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid D Mod R
    CD-15 Mod R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-16 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-17 Strong D Solid D Solid D Strong D Solid D Strong R
    CD-18 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-19 Solid D Strong R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-20 Solid R NA NA NA NA NA
    BOLD - party turnover
     
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%
    •
     

    Illinois Race Tracking
    President
    Barack Obama - inc
    vs
    Mitt Romney
    Projected Winner
    House District 8
    Joe Walsh - inc
    vs
    Tammy Duckworth
    Projected Winner
    House District 10
    Robert Dold - inc
    vs
    Bradley Schneider
    Projected Winner
    House District 11
    Judy Biggert - inc
    vs
    Bill Foster
    Projected Winner
    House District 12 (open)
    William Enyart
    vs
    Jason Plummer
    Projected Winner
    House District 13 (open)
    Rodney Davis
    vs
    David Gill
    Projected Winner
    House District 17
    Bobby Schilling - inc
    vs
    Cheri Bustos
    Projected Winner
    2012 Elections On Demand


    Presidential Races
     
    Projections:

    Polls:

    Senate & Governor Races
     
    Projections:

    Polls:

    Competitive House Races
     
    Projections:

    Polls:
    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political

     Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics

     D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report

     Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas

     David Wissing
    The Hedgehog Report

     Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball

     Richard & Tony
    The Green Papers

     Rose Institute
    Redistricting in America

     Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
    RealClearPolitics
    Election Projection Resources
     
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