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2012 Projections


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General Information

Election Timeline

  • February 10, 2012 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • May 8, 2012 - Presidential primaries
  • May 8, 2012 - Primary elections (non-presidential)
  • November 6, 2012 - Election day
  • Latest Polls and Updates

    Conservative Ranking

    Indiana is the 23th most conservative state, voting Democrat in the 2008 presidential elections but 6.24% more Republican than the national average.

    Partisan Trend

    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Indiana is trending DEMOCRAT in presidential elections.

    GOP Trend Ranking

    Indiana ranks 29th among the 50 states.

    Projected Races
    Click on a race for details

    Presidential Race

    Barack Obama - inc  vs.  Mitt Romney

    Senate Race

    OPEN:  Richard Mourdock  vs.  Joseph Donnelly

    Governor Race

    OPEN:  Mike Pence  vs.  John Gregg

    Competitive House Races

  • District 2:  OPEN:  Brendan Mullen  vs.  Jackie Walorski
  • District 8:  Larry Buschon  vs.  Dave Crooks
  • Other House Races

    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Peter Visclosky (D)-inc vs. Joel Phelps (R)
  • District 3:  Marlin Stutzman (R)-inc vs. Kevin Boyd (D)
  • District 4:  Todd Rokita (R)-inc vs. Tara Nelson (D)
  • District 5:  OPEN: Susan Brooks (R) vs. Scott Reske (D)
  • District 6:  OPEN: Alan "Luke" Messer (R) vs. Bradley Bookout (D)
  • District 7:  Andre Carson (D)-inc vs. Carlos May (R)
  • District 9:  Todd Young (R)-inc vs. Shelli Yoder (D)
    Additional Information
    Current Partisan Breakdown
    National Delegation
      Senators 2 GOP
      Representatives 6 GOP, 3 DEM
    State Government
      Governor GOP
      Lt. Governor GOP
      State Senate - GOP control 37 GOP, 13 DEM
      State House - GOP control 60 GOP, 40 DEM

    Current Office Holders

  • Governor:  Mitch Daniels, Jr. (R) - 2nd term, term-limited in 2012
  • Lt. Governor:  Becky Skillman (R) - 2nd term, tied to Governor
  • Senior Senator:  Richard Lugar (R) - 6th term, defeated in primary in 2012
  • Junior Senator:  Daniel Coats (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2016
  • House District 1:  Peter Visclosky (D) - 14th term
  • House District 2:  Joe Donnelly (D) - 3rd term (running for Senate)
  • House District 3:  Marlin Stutzman (R) - 1st full term
  • House District 4:  Todd Rokita (R) - 1st term
  • House District 5:  Dan Burton (R) - 15th term (retiring)
  • House District 6:  Mike Pence (R) - 6th term (running for Governor)
  • House District 7:  Andre Carson (D) - 3rd term
  • House District 8:  Larry Bucshon (R) - 1st term
  • House District 9:  Todd Young (R) - 1st term
  • Historical Partisan Snapshot

      Race 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

    President Solid R -- Solid R -- Weak D --

    Class 1 Solid R -- -- Solid R -- --
    Class 3 -- -- Solid D -- -- Solid R

    Governor Mod D -- Mod R -- Solid R --

    House 6 GOP
    4 DEM
    6 GOP
    3 DEM
    7 GOP
    2 DEM
    4 GOP
    5 DEM
    4 GOP
    5 DEM
    6 GOP
    3 DEM
    CD-1 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-2 Solid R Weak R Mod R Mod D Solid D Weak D
    CD-3 Weak D Solid R Solid R Mod R Solid R Solid R
    CD-4 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-5 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-6 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-7 Solid R Mod D Strong D Mod D Solid D Solid D
    CD-8 Mod R Mod R Mod R Solid D Solid D Solid R
    CD-9 Strong D Mod D Weak R Weak D Solid D Strong R
    CD-10 Solid D NA NA NA NA NA
    BOLD - party turnover
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%

    Indiana Race Tracking
    Barack Obama - inc
    Mitt Romney
    Projected Winner
    Senate (open)
    Richard Mourdock
    Joseph Donnelly
    Projected Winner
    Governor (open)
    Mike Pence
    John Gregg
    Projected Winner
    House District 2 (open)
    Brendan Mullen
    Jackie Walorski
    Projected Winner
    House District 8
    Larry Buschon
    Dave Crooks
    Projected Winner
    2012 Elections On Demand

    Presidential Races


    Senate & Governor Races


    Competitive House Races

    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political

    Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics

    D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report

    Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas

    David Wissing
    The Hedgehog Report

    Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball

    Richard & Tony
    The Green Papers

    Rose Institute
    Redistricting in America

    Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

    Election Projection Resources
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