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Kentucky  
 
General Information

Election Timeline


  • February 7, 2012 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • May 22, 2012 - Presidential primaries
  • May 22, 2012 - Primary elections (non-presidential)
  • November 6, 2012 - Election day
  • Latest Polls and Updates


    Conservative Ranking


    Kentucky is the 9th most conservative state, voting 23.49% more Republican in the 2008 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Kentucky is trending REPUBLICAN in presidential elections.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    Kentucky ranks 6th among the 50 states.
     

    Projected Races
    Click on a race for details

    Presidential Race


    Barack Obama - inc  vs.  Mitt Romney

    Senate Race


    No race in 2012

    Governor Race


    No race in 2012

    Competitive House Races


  • District 2:  Ben Chandler - inc  vs.  Andy Barr
  • Other House Races


    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Edward Whitfield (R)-inc vs. Charles Hatchett (D)
  • District 2:  Brett Guthrie (R)-inc vs. David Williams (D)
  • District 3:  John Yarmuth (D)-inc vs. Scott Wicker, Jr. (R)
  • District 4:  OPEN:  Thomas Massie (R) vs. William Adkins (D)
  • District 5:  Hal Rogers (R)-inc vs. Kenneth Stepp (D)
  •  
    Additional Information
    Current Partisan Breakdown
     
    National Delegation
      Senators 2 GOP
      Representatives 4 GOP, 2 DEM
    State Government
      Governor DEM
      Lt. Governor DEM
      State Senate - GOP control 22 GOP, 15 DEM, 1 IND
      State House - DEM control 40 GOP, 59 DEM, 1 vacant

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Steven Beshear (D) - 2nd term, term-limited in 2015
  • Lt. Governor:  Jerry Abramson (D) - 1st term, tied to Governor
  • Senior Senator:  Mitch McConnell (R) - 5th term, up for re-election in 2014
  • Junior Senator:  Rand Paul (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2016
  • House District 1:  Edward Whitfield (R) - 10th term
  • House District 2:  Brett Guthrie (R) - 2nd term
  • House District 3:  John Yarmuth (D) - 3rd term
  • House District 4:  Geoff Davis (R) - 4th term (retiring)
  • House District 5:  Hal Rogers (R) - 16th term
  • House District 6:  Ben Chandler (D) - 4th term
  • Historical Partisan Snapshot


     
      Race 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

    President Solid R -- Solid R -- Solid R --

    Senate
    Class 2 -- Solid R -- -- Mod R --
    Class 3 -- -- Weak R -- -- Strong R

    Governor
    (2003-2011)
    -- Strong R -- Solid D -- Solid D

    House 5 GOP
    1 DEM
    5 GOP
    1 DEM
    5 GOP
    1 DEM
    4 GOP
    2 DEM
    4 GOP
    2 DEM
    4 GOP
    2 DEM
    CD-1 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-2 Solid R Solid R Solid R Strong R Mod R Solid R
    CD-3 Mod R Weak R Solid R Weak D Strong D Strong D
    CD-4 Strong D Weak D Strong R Mod R Solid R Solid R
    CD-5 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-6 Solid R Solid R Solid D Solid D Solid D Weak D

    BOLD - party turnover
     
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%
  •  

    Kentucky Race Tracking
    President
    Mitt Romney
    vs
    Barack Obama - inc
    Projected Winner
    House District 6
    Ben Chandler - inc
    vs
    Andy Barr
    Projected Winner
    2012 Elections On Demand


    Presidential Races
     
    Projections:

    Polls:

    Senate & Governor Races
     
    Projections:

    Polls:

    Competitive House Races
     
    Projections:

    Polls:
    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political


    Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics


    D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report


    Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas


    David Wissing
    The Hedgehog Report


    Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball


    Richard & Tony
    The Green Papers


    Rose Institute
    Redistricting in America


    Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
    RealClearPolitics

    Election Projection Resources
     
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    e-mail Scott at:
    electionprojection-at-
    gmail <put a period here> com
     

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