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2012 Projections


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General Information

Election Timeline

  • March 24, 2012 - Presidential primaries
  • August 17, 2012 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • November 6, 2012 - Election day
  • December 1, 2012 - Runoff
  • Latest Polls and Updates

    Conservative Ranking

    Louisiana is the 8th most conservative state, voting 25.90% more Republican in the 2008 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend

    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Louisiana is trending REPUBLICAN in presidential elections.

    GOP Trend Ranking

    Louisiana ranks 4th among the 50 states.

    Projected Races
    Click on a race for details

    Presidential Race

    Barack Obama - inc  vs.  Mitt Romney

    Senate Race

    No race in 2012

    Governor Race

    No race in 2012

    Competitive House Races

    No competitive races in 2012

    Other House Races

    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Steve Scalise (R)-inc  (currently unopposed)
  • District 2:  Cedric Richmond (D)-inc vs. Gail Dignam (R)
  • District 3:  MERGED:  Charles Boustany, Jr.(Landry)? (R)-inc  (currently unopposed)
  • District 4:  John Fleming (R)-inc  (currently unopposed)
  • District 5:  Rodney Alexander (R)-inc  (currently unopposed)
  • District 6:  Bill Cassidy (R)-inc  (currently unopposed)
    Additional Information
    Current Partisan Breakdown
    National Delegation
      Senators 1 GOP, 1 DEM
      Representatives 6 GOP, 1 DEM
    State Government
      Governor GOP
      Lt. Governor GOP
      State Senate - GOP control 24 GOP, 15 DEM
      State House - GOP control 58 GOP, 45 DEM, 2 IND

    Current Office Holders

  • Governor:  Bobby Jindal (R) - 2nd term, term-limited in 2015
  • Lt. Governor:  Jay Dardenne (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2015
  • Senior Senator:  Mary Landrieu (D) - 3rd term, up for re-election in 2014
  • Junior Senator:  David Vitter (R) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2016
  • House District 1:  Steve Scalise (R) - 3rd term
  • House District 2:  Cedric Richmond (D) - 1st term
  • House District 3:  Jeffrey Landry (R) - 1st term
  • House District 4:  John Fleming (R) - 2nd term
  • House District 5:  Rodney Alexander (R) - 5th term
  • House District 6:  Bill Cassidy (R) - 2nd term
  • House District 7:  Charles Boustany (R) - 4th term (running in CD-3)
  • Historical Partisan Snapshot

      Race 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

    President Mod R -- Solid R -- Solid R --

    Class 2 -- Weak D -- -- Mod D --
    Class 3 -- -- Solid R -- -- Solid R

    -- Weak D -- Solid R -- Solid R

    House 5 GOP
    2 DEM
    5 GOP
    2 DEM
    5 GOP
    2 DEM
    5 GOP
    2 DEM
    6 GOP
    1 DEM
    6 GOP
    1 DEM
    CD-1 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-2 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Weak R Solid D
    CD-3 Solid R Solid R Weak D Solid D Solid D Solid R
    CD-4 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Weak R Solid R
    CD-5 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-6 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Mod R Solid R
    CD-7 Solid D Solid D Strong R Solid R Solid R Solid R

    BOLD - party turnover
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%

    Louisiana Race Tracking
    Mitt Romney
    Barack Obama - inc
    Projected Winner
    2012 Elections On Demand

    Presidential Races


    Senate & Governor Races


    Competitive House Races

    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political

    Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics

    D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report

    Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas

    David Wissing
    The Hedgehog Report

    Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball

    Richard & Tony
    The Green Papers

    Rose Institute
    Redistricting in America

    Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

    Election Projection Resources
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