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2012 Projections


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General Information

Election Timeline

  • February 4-11, 2012 - Presidential caucuses
  • March 15, 2012 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • June 12, 2012 - Primary elections (non-presidential)
  • November 2, 2012 - Election day
  • Latest Polls and Updates

    Conservative Ranking

    Maine is the 11th least conservative state, voting 10.06% less Republican in the 2008 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend

    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Maine is trending DEMOCRAT in presidential elections.

    GOP Trend Ranking

    Maine ranks 32nd among the 50 states.

    Projected Races
    Click on a race for details

    Presidential Race

    Barack Obama - inc  vs.  Mitt Romney

    Senate Race

    OPEN:  Charles Summers  vs.  Cynthia Dill  vs.  Angus King

    Governor Race

    No race in 2012

    Competitive House Races

    No competitive races in 2012

    Other House Races

    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Chellie Pingree (D)-inc vs. Jonathan Courtney (R)
  • District 2:  Michael Michaud (D)-inc vs. Kevin Raye (R) - possibly competitive
    Additional Information
    Current Partisan Breakdown
    National Delegation
      Senators 2 GOP
      Representatives 2 DEM
    State Government
      Governor GOP
      State Senate - GOP control 20 GOP, 14 DEM, 1 IND
      State House - GOP control 78 GOP, 72 DEM

    Current Office Holders

  • Governor:  Paul LePage (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2014
  • Senior Senator:  Olympia Snowe (R) - 3rd term, not seeking re-election in 2012
  • Junior Senator:  Susan Collins (R) - 3rd term, up for re-election in 2014
  • House District 1:  Rochelle Pingree (D) - 2nd term
  • House District 2:  Michael Michaud (D) - 5th term
  • Historical Partisan Snapshot

      Race 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

    President Mod D -- Mod D -- Solid D --

    Class 1 Solid R -- -- Solid R -- --
    Class 2 -- Solid R -- -- Solid R --

    Governor -- Mod D -- Mod D -- Weak R

    House 2 D 2 D 2 D 2 D 2 D 2 D
    CD-1 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Strong D Strong D
    CD-2 Solid D Weak D Solid D Solid D Solid D Strong D

    BOLD - party turnover
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%

    Maine Race Tracking
    Barack Obama - inc
    Mitt Romney
    Projected Winner
    Senate (open)
    Charles Summers
    Cynthia Dill
    Angus King
    Projected Winner
    2012 Elections On Demand

    Presidential Races


    Senate & Governor Races


    Competitive House Races

    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political

    Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics

    D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report

    Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas

    David Wissing
    The Hedgehog Report

    Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball

    Richard & Tony
    The Green Papers

    Rose Institute
    Redistricting in America

    Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

    Election Projection Resources
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