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2012 Projections


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General Information

Election Timeline

  • February 28, 2012 - Presidential primaries
  • May 15, 2012 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • August 7, 2012 - Primary elections (non-presidential)
  • November 6, 2012 - Election day
  • Latest Polls and Updates

    Conservative Ranking

    Michigan is the 13th least conservative state, voting 2.08% less Republican in the 2008 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend

    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Michigan is trending DEMOCRAT in presidential elections.

    GOP Trend Ranking

    Michigan ranks 38th among the 50 states.

    Projected Races
    Click on a race for details

    Presidential Race

    Barack Obama - inc  vs.  Mitt Romney

    Senate Race

    Debbie Stabenow - inc  vs.  Peter Hoekstra

    Governor Race

    No race in 2012

    Competitive House Races

  • District 1:  Dan Benishek - inc  vs.  Gary McDowell
  • District 11:  OPEN:  Kerry Bentivolio (R)  vs.  Syed Taj
  • Other House Races

    Projected winner listed first
  • District 2:  Bill Huizenga (R)-inc  (unopposed)
  • District 3:  Justin Amash (R)-inc vs. Steve Pestka (D) - possibly competitive
  • District 4:  Dave Lee Camp (R)-inc vs. Debra Wirth (D)
  • District 5:  OPEN:  Daniel Kildee (D) vs. Jim Slezak (R)
  • District 6:  Fred Upton (R)-inc vs. Mike O'Brien (D)
  • District 7:  Timothy Walberg (R)-inc vs. Kurt Haskell (D)
  • District 8:  Michael Rogers (R)-inc vs. Lance Enderle (D)
  • District 9:  Sandy Levin (D)-inc vs. Donald Volaric (R)
  • District 10:  Candice Miller (R)-inc vs. Chuck Stadler (D)
  • District 12:  John Dingell (D)-inc, old Dist 15 vs. Cynthia Kallgren (R)
  • District 13:  John Conyers, Jr. (D)-inc, old Dist 14 vs. Harry Sawicki (R)
  • District 14:  Gary Peters (D)-inc, old Dist 9 vs. Raymond Hauler (R)
    Additional Information
    Current Partisan Breakdown
    National Delegation
      Senators 2 DEM
      Representatives 8 GOP, 6 DEM, 1 vacant
    State Government
      Governor GOP
      Lt. Governor - tied to Governor GOP
      State Senate - GOP control 26 GOP, 12 DEM
      State Senate - GOP control 62 GOP, 47 DEM, 1 vacant

    Current Office Holders

  • Governor:  Rick Snyder (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2014
  • Lt. Governor:  Brian Calley (R) - 2nd term, tied to Governor
  • Senior Senator:  Carl Levin (D) - 6th term, up for re-election in 2014
  • Junior Senator:  Debbie Stabenow (D) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2012
  • House District 1:  Daniel Benishek (R) - 1st term
  • House District 2:  William Huizenga (R) - 1st term
  • House District 3:  Justin Amash (R) - 1st term
  • House District 4:  Dave Lee Camp (R) - 11th term
  • House District 5:  Dale Kildee (D) - 18th term (retiring)
  • House District 6:  Fred Upton (R) - 13th term
  • House District 7:  Timothy Walberg (R) - 1st term
  • House District 8:  Michael Rogers (R) - 6th term
  • House District 9:  Gary Peters (D) - 2nd term
  • House District 10:  Candice Miller (R) - 5th term
  • House District 11:  Vacant
        Thad McCotter (R) resigned on July 7, 2012.
  • House District 12:  Sandy Levin (D) - 15th term (running in CD-9)
  • House District 13:  Hansen Clarke (D) - 1st term (running in CD-14)
  • House District 14:  John Conyers Jr. (D) - 24th term (running in CD-13)
  • House District 15:  John Dingell (D) - 29th term (running in CD-12)
  • Historical Partisan Snapshot

      Race 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

    President Weak D -- Weak D -- Strong D --

    Class 1 Weak D -- -- Solid D -- --
    Class 2 -- Solid D -- -- Solid D --

    Governor -- Weak D -- Strong D -- Solid R

    House 7 GOP
    9 DEM
    9 GOP
    6 DEM
    9 GOP
    6 DEM
    9 GOP
    6 DEM
    7 GOP
    8 DEM
    9 GOP
    6 DEM
    CD-1 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Strong R
    CD-2 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-3 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-4 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-5 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Mod D
    CD-6 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-7 Solid R Solid R Solid R Mod R Weak D Weak R
    CD-8 Weak R Solid R Solid R Strong R Solid R Solid R
    CD-9 Solid D Solid R Solid R Mod R Weak D Weak D
    CD-10 Solid D Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-11 Solid R Solid R Solid R Strong R Mod R Solid R
    CD-12 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-13 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-14 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-15 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-16 Solid D NA NA NA NA NA

    BOLD - party turnover
    Party changes not bolded resulted from redistricting before the 2002 election.
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%

    Michigan Race Tracking
    Barack Obama - inc
    Mitt Romney
    Projected Winner
    Debbie Stabenow - inc
    Peter Hoekstra
    Projected Winner
    House District 1
    Dan Benishek - inc
    Gary McDowell
    Projected Winner
    House District 11 (open)
    Kerry Bentivolio
    Syed Taj
    Projected Winner
    2012 Elections On Demand

    Presidential Races


    Senate & Governor Races


    Competitive House Races

    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political

    Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics

    D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report

    Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas

    David Wissing
    The Hedgehog Report

    Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball

    Richard & Tony
    The Green Papers

    Rose Institute
    Redistricting in America

    Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

    Election Projection Resources
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