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2012 Projections


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General Information

Election Timeline

  • February 7, 2012 - Presidential caucuses
  • June 5, 2012 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • August 14, 2012 - Primary elections (non-presidential)
  • November 6, 2012 - Election day
  • Latest Polls and Updates

    Conservative Ranking

    Minnesota is the 20th least conservative state, voting 2.97% less Republican in the 2008 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend

    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Minnesota is trending DEMOCRAT in presidential elections.

    GOP Trend Ranking

    Minnesota ranks 20th among the 50 states.

    Projected Races
    Click on a race for details

    Presidential Race

    Barack Obama - inc  vs.  Mitt Romney

    Senate Race

    Amy Klobuchar - inc  vs.  Kurt Bills

    Governor Race

    No race in 2012

    Competitive House Races

  • District 6:  Michele Bachmann - inc  vs.  Jim Graves
  • District 8:  Chip Cravaack - inc  vs.  Richard Nolan
  • Other House Races

    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  Timothy Walz (DFL)-inc vs. Allen Quist (R)
  • District 2:  John Kline (R)-inc vs. Mike Obermueller (DFL) - possibly competitive
  • District 3:  Erik Paulsen (R)-inc vs. Brian Barnes (DFL)
  • District 4:  Betty McCollum (DFL)-inc vs. Anthony Hernandez (R)
  • District 5:  Keith Ellison (DFL)-inc vs. Chris Fields (R)
  • District 7:  Collin Peterson (DFL)-inc vs. Vidar Lee Byberg (R)
    Additional Information
    Current Partisan Breakdown
    National Delegation
      Senators 2 DFL
      Representatives 4 GOP, 4 DFL
    State Government
      Governor DFL
      Lt. Governor - tied to Governor DFL
      State Senate - GOP control 37 GOP, 29 DFL, 1 vacant
      State House - GOP control 72 GOP, 61 DFL, 1 vacant

    Current Office Holders

  • Governor:  Mark Dayton (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2014
  • Lt. Governor:  Yvonne Solon (D) - 1st term, tied to Governor
  • Senior Senator:  Amy Klobuchar (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2012
  • Junior Senator:  Al Franken (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2014
  • House District 1:  Tim Walz (D) - 3rd term
  • House District 2:  John Kline (R) - 5th term
  • House District 3:  Erik Paulson (R) - 2nd term
  • House District 4:  Betty McCollum (D) - 6th term
  • House District 5:  Keith Ellison (D) - 3rd term
  • House District 6:  Michele Bachmann (R) - 3rd term
  • House District 7:  Collin Peterson (D) - 11th term
  • House District 8:  Chip Cravaack (R) - 1st term
  • Historical Partisan Snapshot

      Race 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

    President Weak D -- Weak D -- Strong D --

    Class 1 Weak D -- -- Solid D -- --
    Class 2 -- Weak R -- -- Weak D --

    Governor -- Mod R -- Weak R -- Weak D

    House 3 GOP
    5 DFL
    4 GOP
    4 DFL
    4 GOP
    4 DFL
    3 GOP
    5 DFL
    3 GOP
    5 DFL
    4 GOP
    4 DFL
    CD-1 Solid R Solid R Solid R Mod D Solid D Mod D
    CD-2 Weak R Strong R Solid R Solid R Strong R Solid R
    CD-3 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Mod R Solid R
    CD-4 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-5 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-6 Weak D Solid R Mod R Mod R Weak R Strong R
    CD-7 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-8 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Weak R

    BOLD - party turnover
    Party changes not bolded resulted from redistricting before the 2002 election.
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%

    Minnesota Race Tracking
    Barack Obama - inc
    Mitt Romney
    Projected Winner
    Amy Klobuchar - inc
    Kurt Bills
    Projected Winner
    House District 6
    Michele Bachmann - inc
    Jim Graves
    Projected Winner
    House District 8
    Chip Cravaack - inc
    Richard Nolan
    Projected Winner
    2012 Elections On Demand

    Presidential Races


    Senate & Governor Races


    Competitive House Races

    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political

    Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics

    D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report

    Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas

    David Wissing
    The Hedgehog Report

    Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball

    Richard & Tony
    The Green Papers

    Rose Institute
    Redistricting in America

    Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

    Election Projection Resources
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