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Missouri  
 
General Information

Election Timeline

  • March 13, 2012 - Presidential caucuses
  • March 27, 2012 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • August 7, 2012 - Primary elections (non-presidential)
  • November 6, 2012 - Election day
    •

    Latest Polls and Updates

    Conservative Ranking

    Missouri is the 22nd most conservative state, voting 7.4% more Republican in the 2008 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend

    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Missouri is trending REPUBLICAN in presidential elections.

    GOP Trend Ranking

    Missouri ranks 13th among the 50 states.
     

    Projected Races
    Click on a race for details

    Presidential Race

    Barack Obama - inc  vs.  Mitt Romney

    Senate Race

    Claire McCaskill - inc  vs.  Todd Akin

    Governor Race

    Jay Nixon - inc  vs.  David Spence

    Competitive House Races

    No competitive races in 2012

    Other House Races

    Projected winner listed first
  • District 1:  MERGED:  William Clay, Jr. (D)-inc vs. Robyn Hamlin (R)
  • District 2:  OPEN:  Ann Wagner (R) vs. Glenn Koenen (D)
  • District 3:  Blaine Luetkemeyer (R)-inc, old Dist 9 vs. Eric Mayer (D)
  • District 4:  Vicky Hartzler (R)-inc vs. Teresa Hensley (D)
  • District 5:  Emmanuel Cleaver, II (D)-inc vs. Jacob Turk (R)
  • District 6:  Sam Graves, Jr. (R)-inc vs. Kyle Yarber (D)
  • District 7:  Billy Long (R)-inc vs. James Evans (D)
  • District 8:  Jo Ann Emerson (R)-inc vs. Jack Rushin (D)
    •
     
    Additional Information
    Current Partisan Breakdown
     
    National Delegation
      Senators 1 GOP, 1 DEM
      Representatives 6 GOP, 3 DEM
    State Government
      Governor DEM
      Lt. Governor GOP
      State Senate - GOP control 26 GOP, 8 DEM
      State House - GOP control 106 GOP, 56 DEM, 1 IND

    Current Office Holders

  • Governor:  Jay Nixon- 1st term, up for re-election in 2012
  • Lt. Governor:  Peter Kinder - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2012
  • Senior Senator:  Claire McCaskill - 1st term, up for re-election in 2012
  • Junior Senator:  Roy Blunt - 1st term, up for re-election in 2016
  • House District 1:  Lacy Clay Jr. (D) - 6th term
  • House District 2:  Todd Akin (R) - 6th term (running for Senate)
  • House District 3:  Russ Carnahan (D) - 4th term (running in CD-1)
  • House District 4:  Vicky Hartzler (R) - 1st term
  • House District 5:  Emmanuel Cleaver, II (D) - 4th term
  • House District 6:  Samuel Graves, Jr. (R) - 6th term
  • House District 7:  Billy Long (R) - 1st term
  • House District 8:  Jo Ann Emerson (R) - 8th term
  • House District 9:  Blaine Luetkemeyer (R) - 2nd term (running in CD-3)

    • Historical Partisan Snapshot
     
      Race 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010
    President Weak R -- Mod R -- Weak R --
    Senate
    Class 1 Weak D Weak R -- Weak D -- --
    Class 3 -- -- Strong R -- -- Strong R
    Governor Weak D -- Weak R -- Solid D --
    House 6 GOP
    3 DEM    		 5 GOP
    4 DEM    		 5 GOP
    4 DEM    		 5 GOP
    4 DEM    		 5 GOP
    4 DEM    		 6 GOP
    3 DEM
    CD-1 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-2 Strong R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-3 Solid D Solid D Mod D Solid D Solid D Weak D
    CD-4 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Weak R
    CD-5 Solid R Solid D Strong D Solid D Solid D Mod D
    CD-6 Weak R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-7 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-8 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-9 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Weak R Solid R
    BOLD - party turnover
    Party changes not bolded resulted from redistricting before the 2002 election.
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%
    •
     

    Missouri Race Tracking
    President
    Mitt Romney
    vs
    Barack Obama - inc
    Projected Winner
    Senate
    Claire McCaskill - inc
    vs
    Todd Akin
    Projected Winner
    Governor
    Jay Nixon -inc
    vs
    David Spence
    Projected Winner
    2012 Elections On Demand


    Presidential Races
     
    Projections:

    Polls:

    Senate & Governor Races
     
    Projections:

    Polls:

    Competitive House Races
     
    Projections:

    Polls:
    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political

     Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics

     D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report

     Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas

     David Wissing
    The Hedgehog Report

     Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball

     Richard & Tony
    The Green Papers

     Rose Institute
    Redistricting in America

     Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
    RealClearPolitics
    Election Projection Resources
     
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