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2012 Projections


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General Information

Election Timeline

  • March 12, 2012 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • June 5, 2012 - Presidential primaries
  • June 5, 2012 - Primary elections (non-presidential)
  • November 6, 2012 - Election day
  • Latest Polls and Updates

    Conservative Ranking

    Montana is the 21st most conservative state, voting 9.65% more Republican in the 2008 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend

    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Montana is trending REPUBLICAN in presidential elections.

    GOP Trend Ranking

    Montana ranks 16th among the 50 states.

    Projected Races
    Click on a race for details

    Presidential Race

    Barack Obama - inc  vs.  Mitt Romney

    Senate Race

    Jon Tester - inc  vs.  Denny Rehberg

    Governor Race

    OPEN:  Steve Bullock  vs.  Rick Hill

    Competitive House Races

    No competitive races in 2012

    Other House Races

  • District AL:  OPEN: Steven Daines (R) vs. Kim Gillan (D) - possibly competitive
    Additional Information
    Current Partisan Breakdown
    National Delegation
      Senators 2 DEM
      Representatives 1 GOP
    State Government
      Governor DEM
      Lt. Governor - tied to Governor DEM
      State Senate - GOP control 28 GOP, 22 DEM
      State House - GOP control 68 GOP, 32 DEM

    Current Office Holders

  • Governor:  Brian Schweitzer (D) - 2nd term, term-limited in 2012
  • Lt. Governor:  John Bohlinger (D) - 2nd term, not seeking re-election in 2012
  • Senior Senator:  Max Baucus (D) - 6th term, up for re-election in 2014
  • Junior Senator:  Jon Tester (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2012
  • House District 1:  Dennis Rehberg (R) - 5th term (running for Senate)
  • Historical Partisan Snapshot

      Race 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2008

    President Solid R -- Solid R -- Weak R --

    Class 1 Weak R -- -- Weak D -- --
    Class 2 -- Solid D -- -- Solid D --

    Governor Weak R -- Weak D -- Weak D --

    House 1 GOP 1 GOP 1 GOP 1 GOP 1 GOP 1 GOP
    CD-1 Mod R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R

    BOLD - party turnover
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%

    Montana Race Tracking
    Mitt Romney
    Barack Obama - inc
    Projected Winner
    Jon Tester - inc
    Denny Rehberg
    Projected Winner
    Governor (open)
    Steve Bullock
    Rick Hill
    Projected Winner
    2012 Elections On Demand

    Presidential Races


    Senate & Governor Races


    Competitive House Races

    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political

    Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics

    D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report

    Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas

    David Wissing
    The Hedgehog Report

    Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball

    Richard & Tony
    The Green Papers

    Rose Institute
    Redistricting in America

    Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

    Election Projection Resources
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