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Montana  
 
General Information

Election Timeline


  • March 12, 2012 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • June 5, 2012 - Presidential primaries
  • June 5, 2012 - Primary elections (non-presidential)
  • November 6, 2012 - Election day
  • Latest Polls and Updates


    Conservative Ranking


    Montana is the 21st most conservative state, voting 9.65% more Republican in the 2008 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend


    Based on voting patterns since 1992, Montana is trending REPUBLICAN in presidential elections.

    GOP Trend Ranking


    Montana ranks 16th among the 50 states.
     

    Projected Races
    Click on a race for details

    Presidential Race


    Barack Obama - inc  vs.  Mitt Romney

    Senate Race


    Jon Tester - inc  vs.  Denny Rehberg

    Governor Race


    OPEN:  Steve Bullock  vs.  Rick Hill

    Competitive House Races


    No competitive races in 2012

    Other House Races


  • District AL:  OPEN: Steven Daines (R) vs. Kim Gillan (D) - possibly competitive
  •  
    Additional Information
    Current Partisan Breakdown
     
    National Delegation
      Senators 2 DEM
      Representatives 1 GOP
    State Government
      Governor DEM
      Lt. Governor - tied to Governor DEM
      State Senate - GOP control 28 GOP, 22 DEM
      State House - GOP control 68 GOP, 32 DEM

    Current Office Holders


  • Governor:  Brian Schweitzer (D) - 2nd term, term-limited in 2012
  • Lt. Governor:  John Bohlinger (D) - 2nd term, not seeking re-election in 2012
  • Senior Senator:  Max Baucus (D) - 6th term, up for re-election in 2014
  • Junior Senator:  Jon Tester (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2012
  • House District 1:  Dennis Rehberg (R) - 5th term (running for Senate)
  • Historical Partisan Snapshot


     
      Race 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2008

    President Solid R -- Solid R -- Weak R --

    Senate
    Class 1 Weak R -- -- Weak D -- --
    Class 2 -- Solid D -- -- Solid D --

    Governor Weak R -- Weak D -- Weak D --

    House 1 GOP 1 GOP 1 GOP 1 GOP 1 GOP 1 GOP
    CD-1 Mod R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R

    BOLD - party turnover
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%
  •  

    Montana Race Tracking
    President
    Mitt Romney
    vs
    Barack Obama - inc
    Projected Winner
    Senate
    Jon Tester - inc
    vs
    Denny Rehberg
    Projected Winner
    Governor (open)
    Steve Bullock
    vs
    Rick Hill
    Projected Winner
    2012 Elections On Demand


    Presidential Races
     
    Projections:

    Polls:

    Senate & Governor Races
     
    Projections:

    Polls:

    Competitive House Races
     
    Projections:

    Polls:
    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political


    Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics


    D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report


    Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas


    David Wissing
    The Hedgehog Report


    Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball


    Richard & Tony
    The Green Papers


    Rose Institute
    Redistricting in America


    Tom Bevan and John McIntyre
    RealClearPolitics

    Election Projection Resources
     
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    e-mail Scott at:
    electionprojection-at-
    gmail <put a period here> com
     

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