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2012 Projections


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North Carolina  
General Information

Election Timeline

  • February 29, 2012 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • May 8, 2012 - Presidential primaries
  • May 8, 2012 - Primary elections (non-presidential)
  • July 17, 2012 - Primary runoff
  • November 6, 2012 - Election day
  • Latest Polls and Updates

    Conservative Ranking

    North Carolina is the 23rd most conservative state, voting for Obama in 2008 but 6.95% more Republican than the national average.

    Partisan Trend

    Based on voting patterns since 1992, North Carolina is trending DEMOCRAT in presidential elections.

    GOP Trend Ranking

    North Carolina ranks 24th among the 50 states.

    Projected Races
    Click on a race for details

    Presidential Race

    Barack Obama - inc  vs.  Mitt Romney

    Senate Race

    No race in 2012

    Governor Race

    OPEN SEAT:  Walter Dalton  vs.  Pat McCrory

    Competitive House Races

  • District 7:  Mike McIntyre  vs.  David Rouzer
  • District 8:  Larry Kissell  vs.  Richard Hudson
  • District 11:  OPEN:  Hayden Rogers  vs.  Mark Meadows
  • District 13:  OPEN:  Charles Malone  vs.  George Holding
  • Other House Races

  • District 1:  G.K. Butterfield (D)-inc vs. Pete DiLauro (R)
  • District 2:  Renee Ellmers (R)-inc vs. Stephen Wilkins (D)
  • District 3:  Walter Jones, Jr. (R)-inc vs. Erik Anderson (D)
  • District 4:  David Price (D)-inc vs. Timothy D'Annunzio (R)
  • District 5:  Virginia Foxx (R)-inc vs. Elisabeth Marie Motsinger (D)
  • District 6:  Howard Coble (R)-inc vs. Anthony Foriest (D)
  • District 9:  OPEN: Robert Pittenger (R) vs. Jennifer Roberts (D)
  • District 10:  Patrick McHenry (R)-inc vs. Patsy Keever (D)
  • District 12:  Melvin Watt (D)-inc vs. Jack Brosch (R)
    Additional Information
    Current Partisan Breakdown
    National Delegation
      Senators 1 GOP, 1 DEM
      Representatives 6 GOP, 7 DEM
    State Government
      Governor DEM
      Lt. Governor DEM
      State Senate - GOP control 30 GOP, 19 DEM, 1 vacant
      State House - GOP control 68 GOP, 52 DEM

    Current Office Holders

  • Governor:  Beverly Perdue (D) - 1st term, not seeking re-election in 2012
  • Lt. Governor:  Walter Dalton (D) - 1st term (running for Governor)
  • Senior Senator:  Richard Burr (R) - 2nd term, up for re-election in 2016
  • Junior Senator:  Kay Hagan (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2014
  • House District 1:  G.K. Butterfield (D) - 5th term
  • House District 2:  Renee Ellmers (R) - 1st term
  • House District 3:  Walter Jones, Jr. (R) - 9th term
  • House District 4:  David Price (D) - 12th term
  • House District 5:  Virginia Foxx (R) - 4th term
  • House District 6:  Howard Coble (R) - 14th term
  • House District 7:  Mike McIntyre (D) - 8th term
  • House District 8:  Larry Kissell (D) - 2nd term
  • House District 9:  Sue Myrick (R) - 8th term (retiring)
  • House District 10:  Patrick McHenry (R) - 4th term
  • House District 11:  Heath Shuler (D) - 3rd term (retiring)
  • House District 12:  Melvin Watt (D) - 10th term
  • House District 13:  Brad Miller (D) - 5th term (retiring)
  • Historical Partisan Snapshot

      Race 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

    President Strong R -- Strong R -- Weak D --

    Class 2 -- Mod R -- -- Mod D --
    Class 3 -- -- Mod R -- -- Strong R

    Governor Mod D -- Strong D -- Weak D --

    House 7 GOP
    5 DEM
    7 GOP
    6 DEM
    7 GOP
    6 DEM
    6 GOP
    7 DEM
    5 GOP
    8 DEM
    6 GOP
    7 DEM
    CD-1 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-2 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Weak R
    CD-3 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-4 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Strong D
    CD-5 Solid R Solid R Solid R Strong R Solid R Solid R
    CD-6 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-7 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Mod D
    CD-8 Strong R Strong R Strong R Weak R Strong D Mod D
    CD-9 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-10 Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R Solid R
    CD-11 Strong R Strong R Strong R Mod D Solid D Mod D
    CD-12 Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D Solid D
    CD-13 NA Strong D Solid D Solid D Solid D Strong D

    BOLD - party turnover
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%

    North Carolina Race Tracking
    Barak Obama - inc
    Mitt Romney
    Projected Winner
    Governor (open)
    Walter Dalton
    Patrick McCrory
    Projected Winner
    House District 7
    Mike McIntyre - inc
    David Rouzer
    Projected Winner
    House District 8
    Larry Kissell - inc
    Richard Hudson
    Projected Winner
    House District 11 (open)
    Hayden Rogers
    Mark Meadows
    Projected Winner
    House District 13 (open)
    Charles Malone
    George Holding
    Projected Winner
    2012 Elections On Demand

    Presidential Races


    Senate & Governor Races


    Competitive House Races

    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political

    Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics

    D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report

    Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas

    David Wissing
    The Hedgehog Report

    Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball

    Richard & Tony
    The Green Papers

    Rose Institute
    Redistricting in America

    Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

    Election Projection Resources
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