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2012 Projections


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New Hampshire  
General Information

Election Timeline

  • January 10, 2012 - Presidential primaries
  • June 15, 2012 - Deadline to file for candidacy
  • September 11, 2012 - Primary elections (non-presidential)
  • November 6, 2012 - Election day
  • Latest Polls and Updates

    Conservative Ranking

    New Hampshire is the 21st least conservative state, voting 2.34% less Republican in the 2008 presidential elections than the national average.

    Partisan Trend

    Based on voting patterns since 1992, New Hampshire is trending DEMOCRAT in presidential elections.

    GOP Trend Ranking

    New Hampshire ranks 36th among the 50 states.

    Projected Races
    Click on a race for details

    Presidential Race

    Barack Obama - inc  vs.  Mitt Romney

    Senate Race

    No race in 2012

    Governor Race

    OPEN SEAT:  Maggie Hassan  vs.  Ovide Lamontagne

    Competitive House Races

  • District 1:  Frank Guinta - inc  vs.  Carol Shea-Porter
  • District 2:  Charlie Bass - inc  vs.  Ann Kuster
  • Other House Races

    Additional Information
    Current Partisan Breakdown
    National Delegation
      Senators 1 GOP, 1 DEM
      Representatives 2 GOP
    State Government
      Governor DEM
      State Senate - GOP control 19 GOP, 5 DEM
      State House - GOP control 295 GOP, 105 DEM

    Current Office Holders

  • Governor:  John Lynch (D) - 4th term, not seeking re-election in 2012
  • Senior Senator:  Jeanne Shaheen (D) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2014
  • Junior Senator:  Kelly Ayotte (R) - 1st term, up for re-election in 2016
  • House District 1:  Frank Guinta (R) - 1st term
  • House District 2:  Charlie Bass (R) - 1st term
  • Historical Partisan Snapshot

      Race 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

    President Weak R -- Weak D -- Mod D --

    Class 2 -- Weak R -- -- Mod D --
    Class 3 -- -- Solid R -- -- Solid R

    Governor Mod D Solid R Weak D Solid D Solid D Mod D

    House 2 GOP 2 GOP 2 GOP 2 DEM 2 DEM 2 GOP
    CD-1 Mod R Solid R Solid R Weak D Mod D Strong R
    CD-2 Solid R Solid R Solid R Mod D Solid D Weak R

    BOLD - party turnover
    Race ratings:
  • "Weak" - less than 5%
  • "Mod" - 5% to less than 10%
  • "Strong" - 10% to 15%
  • "Solid" - greater than 15%

    New Hampshire Race Tracking
    Barack Obama - inc
    Mitt Romney
    Projected Winner
    Governor (open)
    Ovide Lamontagne
    Maggie Hassan
    Projected Winner
    House District 1
    Frank Guinta - inc
    Carol Shea-Porter
    Projected Winner
    House District 2
    Charlie Bass - inc
    Ann Kuster
    Projected Winner
    2012 Elections On Demand

    Presidential Races


    Senate & Governor Races


    Competitive House Races

    Special Thanks To:

    Charlie Cook
    Cook Political

    Congressional Quarterly
    CQ Politics

    D.C. Finegold Sachs
    DC's Political Report

    Dave Leip
    U.S. Election Atlas

    David Wissing
    The Hedgehog Report

    Larry Sabato
    Crystal Ball

    Richard & Tony
    The Green Papers

    Rose Institute
    Redistricting in America

    Tom Bevan and John McIntyre

    Election Projection Resources
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